Sentiment

Indicators

Smart Money - Buys Aggressively!

Capitulation

Despondency

Max-Pessimism 

Depression 

Hope - Silver F

Relief *Market returns to Mean  - Short Term Notes & Bills or MMF

Smart Money - Buys the Dips!

Optimism 

Media Attention - Gold

Enthusiasm

Smart Money - Sells the Rallies!

Thrill

Greed

Delusional

Max-Optimism  Residential Real Estate   - Stocks -BitCoin 

Denial of Problem  

Anxiety 

Fear

Desperation - Long Term Bonds

Current Economic Conditions

Prosperity - Moderate

Recession - Shallow

Deflation - None

Inflation - Moderate

Economic Choices

None

Shallow

Moderate

Prominent

Extreme 

Monthly Update: Very little change from last month.

 

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 6/1/25

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

41% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

35% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **

 24% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.

"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:

Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]

Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........36.29
Bond Rate...5.57%

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

2.00+ Stocks on the give-away-table!

1.75+ Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30+ Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

0.50 or less:  Stock Market Crash Alert!  

Purchase 30 year Treasury Bonds! 

Current EYC Ratio: 0.54(rounded)

As of  5-14-25
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com

Bond Rate is the rate as reported by

Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX)

DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.

Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

%
Stocks & Bonds

Allocation Formula

6-1-2025
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]

Formula's answer determines bond allocation.

Current PE10.....36.29

Avg. PE10...........17.22

Core Bond Allocation:  124% 

% Stock Allocation     0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation  100% (rounded)

Current Asset: Vanguard Short-Term

Investment Grade Bond Fund   

Logic behind this approach:

--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 

--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.

Current Allocation:

Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund

Possible Allocations to Bonds vs Stocks:

Bonds %

100%+  Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund 

99% to 65% Wellesley Income Fund

64% to 35% 1/2 Wellesley Income Fund - 1/2 Wellington Fund

34% to 0%  Equity Income Fund

  

DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

A value based allocation strategy

February 19, 2010 by John Kingham

 

School Shootings

When a well packaged web of lies sold to the masses the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a delusional lunatic.

DYI:  Dismissing conspiracy theories when the vast population has been indoctrinated during their entire life with "everything isn't faked" is a knee-jerk reaction for people who haven't looked into the lot of these events. 

That's how these lies are being upheld. If you lie in a big and unthinkable manner, they know that it becomes too much for people to deny that event ever taking place. That's cognitive dissonance at play. It's true that we don't live in la la land just because the media tries to DDoS our brains on a daily basis with fictional fearmongering narratives.

Yet still, we have learned to live in a perception of the reality that is very far removed from the actual truth.

That's how they are able to keep their power.

Madmen killing random people on a regular basis is a fairy tale that we've been conditioned to think is real.

The bulk of all murder cases tend to involve acquaintances. The 10-20% of news that actually occurs is used to sell us the idea to us that the fake news is real. It's a way to manifest the propaganda into reality. And the things that do happen tend to not receive any protracted attention in the media, with most of the real perpetrators getting stopped before they hurt anybody.

I don't see any logistical problems with constantly orchestrating school shootings just as occurred with serial killers and Muslim vehicle attacks. As we know by now, no one dies in these attacks. Pulling up some police tape and having actors pretending to be mourning relatives.

The point is to make us afraid just precisely in an efficient manner. If we're constantly afraid, we won't be thinking rationally and we will just put up with whatever the powers that be tells us what to do.

It's a matter of emotional manipulation.

The masses' blind trust to authority and the media for their information about the surrounding world and is exploited by them.  The response to these events is a larger and even more important part of the operation than the event itself.

Furthermore, the purpose of school shootings is not to raise opinion for gun control, but to sow fear and distrust among people.

It's about dividing the population.

Why the mainstream and the so-called alternative media talking about conspiracy theories regarding Sandy Hook? They WANTED people to discuss gun control, even though most people have no need for guns. But since they control both sides, the purpose was to try to make a buck off of you, regardless of what side you picked in the debate. The gun industry is already extremely lucrative, so why would they ever outlaw it? The gun control people wanted more taxes, the gun advocates were hoping to sell you a gun. The people they are hiring to debate gun control in the media on both sides are working for the banks. The escalation of these psyops benefits them from all directions.

 

Will the bond market eventually wake up and scare the bejesus out of Congress? 

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Bond

Vigilante’s

Running to the Sound

Of Massive Government Spending! 

Fears of higher inflation, fears of a lax Fed, and additional years of unspeakable fiscal madness – are anathema for the bond market.

Except that the bond market has been sleeping through the first few innings of this anathema. It briefly woke up in the second half of 2023, but then dozed off again. And now it woke up again? Maybe just a little?

The last time the bond market was wide awake, nervously watching inning after inning of anathema, was in the late 1970s through the early 1990s, when the 10-year yield was mostly above 8%, and for some years much higher.

DYI:  As Presidential (both parties) and Congressional (again both parties) continuing their spending like drunken sailors this will favor – in this order – silver, short term notes, and gold.  All other assets monitored by DYI will decline in a saw tooth manner as long term bond yields increasing out compete for long term returns.

Smart Money - Buys Aggressively!

Capitulation

Despondency

Max-Pessimism 

Depression 

Hope - Silver F

Relief *Market returns to Mean  - Short Term Notes & Bills or MMF

Smart Money - Buys the Dips!

Optimism - Gold

Media Attention

Enthusiasm

Smart Money - Sells the Rallies!

Thrill

Greed

Delusional

Max-Optimism  Residential Real Estate   - Stocks -BitCoin 

Denial of Problem  

Anxiety 

Fear

Desperation - Long Term Bonds

Current Economic Conditions

Prosperity - Moderate

Recession - Shallow

Deflation - None

Inflation - Moderate

Economic Choices

None

Shallow

Moderate

Prominent

Extreme 

 Gold

May 24, 2025

Dow to Gold Ratio 12.39 to 1

Gold Price $3,357

Silver $33.76

Dow Jones Industrial 41,603

Buying gold on the dips as the Dow to Gold Ratio has further upside potential.  At 5 to 1 – Dow to Gold Ratio – is when you begin to sell into the rallies.  How low will the Dow go or how high gold will end up at is anyone’s guesses.  Obviously the year 2000 is long gone when buying gold was shooting fish in a barrel, however value remains today when buying on the dips.

Side Note:  Silver remains excellent value within the precious metals as the Gold to Silver Ratio remains very much in favor of silver.  A lopsided 99 to 1 ratio with its long term mean at 50 to 1.  Just catching up to the mean is a double for silver.  So far silver is unloved and forgotten metal thus providing excellent upside potential as once again our government inflates away the Fed’s debt problem just as they did from 1946 to 1982.        

Smart Money - Buys Aggressively!

Capitulation

Despondency

Max-Pessimism 

Depression 

Hope - Silver F

Relief *Market returns to Mean  - Short Term Notes & Bills or MMF

Smart Money - Buys the Dips!

Optimism - Gold

Media Attention

Enthusiasm

Smart Money - Sells the Rallies!

Thrill

Greed

Delusional

Max-Optimism  Residential Real Estate   - Stocks -BitCoin 

Denial of Problem  

Anxiety 

Fear

Desperation - Long Term Bonds

Current Economic Conditions

Prosperity - Moderate

Recession - Shallow

Deflation - None

Inflation - Moderate

Economic Choices

None

Shallow

Moderate

Prominent

Extreme 

 

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada confesses re bird flu: We have zero evidence of a virus or contagion not even a "genome" to be found Christine Massey FOIs Apr 9 2025 Greetings and Best Wishes, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada is one of the Canadian Food Inspection Agency’s "avian influenza virus" partners and a member of the farcical "Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Vaccination Task Force". These are key players perpetuating the bird flu hoax that is based on zero logical, valid evidence here on the land known as Canada. I had never heard of this organization until scanning through the initial motion record filed on behalf of the British Columbia ostrich farmers whose 400 healthy birds the fakers at Canadian Food Inspection Agency still want to murder (based on 2 completely-fraudulent PCR tests for the imaginary virus, performed on 2 dead bird months ago). (Fun fact: In addition to falsely claiming in her affidavit to have "personal knowledge" of imaginary viruses that are claimed to be submicroscopic and hence invisible to the naked eye and even to a light microscope and for which no valid scientific evidence exists, Cathy Furness acting as "Deputy Chief Veterinary Officer for Canada" appears to have filed a forged document into federal court. Arif Virani acting as “Minister of Justice” and “Attorney General of Canada” and Mark Holland acting as “Minister of Health” have already tacitly agreed with me on this.) Hearing of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada for the first time prompted me to file a freedom of information order (pgs 1/2) with the organization on February 10, 2025, in order to collect yet another official legal confession/failure from the frauds who pretend to have “expertise” on imaginary viral health threats. Here is what I ordered: “All studies in the possession/custody/control of "Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada" and/or Lawrence MacAulay who acts as "The Honourable Lawrence MacAulay", authored by anyone, anywhere: 1. - that scientifically prove/provide evidence of the existence of any alleged "avian influenza virus" (showing that the alleged particles exist, invade and replicate in "host" cells and cause the illness/symptoms that they are alleged to cause), or 2. - that describe the purification of particles that are alleged to be "avian influenza virus" directly from bodily fluid/tissue/excrement of so-called "hosts", with purification confirmed via EM imaging, or 3. - wherein the purported "genome" of any alleged "avian influenza virus" was found intact in the bodily fluid/tissue/excrement of a "host" (as opposed to fabricated in silico, aka a computer model), or 4. - that scientifically demonstrate contagion of the illness / symptoms that are allegedly caused by purported "avian influenza viruses", or 5. - wherein any test that purportedly relates to the alleged "avian influenza virus" was validated (logically, this would require the alleged virus to first be proven to exist). As usual, I asked that if any records match the above descriptions and are currently available to the public elsewhere, I be provided enough information about each record so that I may identify and access it with certainty (titles, authors, etc.). Today I received a letter (pg 10/11) “digitally signed by Martinez, Amanda” for “Amanda Martinez, Manager of Operations, Access to Information and Privacy, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada / Government of Canada” in response to FOI order A-2024-00114 / MI confessing that: “A thorough search was done through departmental files, and no documents exist concerning the requested information.” For many more official confessions/failures from various “countries” on the bird flu hoax, see here. Here you will find links to some great resources for farmers and backyard chicken-raisers confronted by “authorities” re “bird flu”. (Note: this information has been sent to ~200 people who work for “the state”, lamestream media, etc. at Canada, Isle of Man, England and the U.S., so that they cannot claim later that they did not know. It will also be sent to people who act in the Canadian “justice” system… that has falsely prosecuted people in relation to “germs”.) If you would like to support my efforts, please see the Paypal button that is near the bottom of my homepage. Recommended Germ/Contagion Reading/Viewing A Farewell To Virology - Dr Sam Bailey highlights the paperback and hardcover versions of her husband Dr Mark Bailey’s historic 28,000-word treatise (which is still available for free download); the book version is supplemented with 2 of Mark’s essays Will Trump save America from vaccination? - a short film from Kate Sugak "Measles is surging because of unvaccinated people." Let's analyze all aspects of this claim. - Alec Zeck Del Bigtree’s Epic Rant Insulting Vaccine Injured - Caroline Chang, whose daughter was killed by the MMR quackcine, unleashed on Del “we follow the science” Bigtree. (For the record, here are my various emails to Del and the HighWire, none of which were acknowledge by Del and all of which resulted in his team citing exactly zero studies to back up Del’s virus/contagion narratives.) Official Confessions/Evidence Confirm that Virology is Pseudoscience My notarized affidavit regarding the hundreds of freedom of information responses (FOIs) confirming the fraud and delusion of virology, with German and Greek translations: https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/affidavit-re-foi-and-fraud-and-delusion-of-virology Also at tinyurl.com/virus-affidavit Freedom of Information Responses reveal that health/science institutions around the world (225 and counting!) have no record of SARS-COV-2 (the alleged convid virus) isolation/purification, anywhere, ever: https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/fois-reveal-that-health-science-institutions-around-the-world-have-no-record-of-sars-cov-2-isolation-purification/ Excel file listing 225 institutions: https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Institution-list-for-website.xlsx FOI responses re other imaginary “viruses” (HIV, avian influenza, HPV, Influenza, Measles, etc., etc., etc.): https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/fois-reveal-that-health-science-institutions-have-no-record-of-any-virus-having-been-isolated-purified-virology-isnt-a-science/ FOIs re secretive and unscientifically "mock infected" cells (aka invalid controls) and computer-model "viral genomes": https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/do-virologists-perform-valid-control-experiments-is-virology-a-science/ 3000+ pages of "virus" FOIs in 8 compilation pdfs: https://tinyurl.com/IsolationFOIs Failed freedom of Information responses re contagion: https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/freedom-of-information-responses-re-contagion/ Do health and science institutions have studies proving that bacteria CAUSE disease? https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/do-health-authorities-have-studies-proving-that-bacteria-cause-disease-lets-find-out-via-freedom-of-information/ Because "they" (HIV, influenza virus, HPV, measles virus, etc., etc., etc.) have never been shown to exist, clearly don't exist and virology isn't a science. For truth, freedom and sanity, Christine

Five Stages of Wealth Inequality

Stage one.)  Asset prices begin their journey of increasing substantially in price due to massive tax reduction for the wealthy and rich.  This pushes up in price stocks, bonds, and real estate that are purchased from the weakest hands, those in the working class who see this as a windfall especially from those who moved into retirement.

Stage two.)  The working class is no longer able to save or borrow for the purchase of assets.  This is especially true for residential real estate that is seen by the growing homelessness of the poor.  This has also eviscerated the working class ability to consume even for the basics stables so necessary for life.

The government steps in to fill the gap with multiple programs that require the government to borrow even more money from the rich and ultra levels of rich.  Many lower level governments’ State and locals have asset sales purchased by the rich to fund programs (until the money runs out).  Simply put, governments are now at the beginning stage of dis-saving just like the poor and working class.

Stage three.)  The government continues its downward spiral of asset sales and borrowing monies to support the economy that has now included programs normally for the poor but are now being demanded by the lower middle class desperately holding on to a middle class lifestyle.

There remains no effort by the government to tax the wealth of the rich.  As the rich are in control of government.

Stage four.)  As the government is squeezed out for revenues  social welfare programs are cut back or closed but other areas such as police, fire, hospitals, schools are all reduced due to funding.  England is now in full blown stage four where as the U.S. is in just the beginning throws of this stage.

Since the rich currently hold the power over governments thus taxes are reduced for those holding assets government will continue to increase taxes on the middle class incomes.

Stage five.)  Simply more asset acquiring by the rich that removes all but the upper tier middle class, who are there to support the rich class with products and services leaving the once working class in wretched poverty with the once middle class as the new surviving working class.

If this is allowed to be completed welcome to FUEDALISM!