Wednesday, October 7, 2026

 

U.S.

Stock Market

Remains Massively Overvalued!


Saying the U.S. stock market is in a bubble is a massive understatement!  This makes stock investment especially those indexing in the S&P 500 vulnerable to major declines.  Simply put the downside is far, far greater possibility than any remaining upside.

As of 10 – 7- 2026 Vanguard’s S&P 500 index ETF (VOO) dividend yield is a tiny 1.00% lower than the year 2000 low.  Interest rates have moved up significantly from their sub atomically lows with Vanguard’s Long Term Investment Grade Corporate bond ETF (VCLT) with a yield at 6.57% or a 557% greater yield.  IMO bonds will outperform stocks (especially the S&P 500 index) over the next 10 years and possibly as long as 15 years.

Till Next Time 

 

Men's Checklist for Marriage

Imperative:

Taller by a minimum of 5 inches...8 inches plus is prefered.

Women definitely desire a man who is taller to be dominated in the bedroom.  Also the other obvious benefit she is able to wear high heels without towering over her man placing her and you in an lesser social status position.

Man's income greater than her's by a minimum of 50%...100% plus is the sweet spot.

Women do not want to feel that they are taking care of a man child when it comes to finances.  Also puts her in the distasteful position as the "Money Honey" when talking to relatives and friends especially when it is obvious she makes more money.

Making more money than her also puts her into that dominated position - when the relationship is good - she feels protected and safe.

Financial Management

Avoid completely any women who shows the signs that she is the out of control spender.  If you are a spender then don't get married.  The biggest cause of divorce today is well known to be money. 

 Behavioral Warning Signs

  •  Financial Secrecy:  Hiding shopping bags, sneaking packages inside, or keeping secret credit cards and bank accounts.
  • Defensiveness: Getting angry, quiet, or changing the subject whenever basic financial questions or budget topics come up.
  • Emotional Swings: Showing intense excitement or a rush while shopping, followed by guilt, anxiety, or depression once the bill arrives.
  • Continuous Buying: Buying items repeatedly despite making promises or resolutions to cut back.
  •   Financial Red Flags

    • Always Being Broke: Struggling to pay for basic living expenses like groceries or utilities while constantly acquiring new luxury items, clothes, or cosmetic goods.
    • Draining Resources: Depleting emergency savings or retirement funds to cover casual or discretionary shopping. 
    • Mounting Debt: Accumulating high-interest credit card balances or taking out small consumer loans without any realistic plan to pay them back.

    Sex

    Look for Sexual Positivity: Women who openly talk about pleasure, boundaries, and preferences without shame or hesitation are more likely to value frequent intimacy.

    Maintain Attraction and Effort:  Keep dating your partner, stay well-groomed, and keep the element of playful tension alive.  The fastest way to destroy a marriage is for a spouse ending up as - to be blunt - a FAT ASS.  Not just problems in the bedroom but when it becomes so obvious any social engagements become impossible.

    Marrying a Good Looking Women

    Waking up in the morning to a hot wife with the above traits in place is icing on the cake.

    Take the Initiative
    • Approach women: Do not wait for attractive women to make the first move, as this limits your chances.
    • Build conversation skills: Learn how to start fun, engaging conversations that make a woman feel comfortable.
    • Expand your options: Actively put yourself in social situations where you can meet people instead of relying on luck.
    • Improve Yourself
      • Enhance your appearance: Take care of your personal hygiene, fitness, and style to present your best self.
      • Develop stability: Cultivate emotional maturity, ambition, and confidence, which are core traits that make a man a strong partner.
      • Offer peace: Attractive women often deal with a lot of outside attention and potential drama; offering a calm, stable, and supportive environment stands out.

    Marry within your Race and Culture

    There are exceptions when different race marriages work, however the odds against is not good with all of the different cultural expectation placing huge stress on the marriage.  Today mixed marriages as a general rule are no longer looked down upon however they are seen as an oddity.  And can be very difficult on the offspring and parents raising a mixed child.  Not politically correct but once that is put off to the side the odds of a successful marriage is dramatically reduced.

    Do you want children and if you do how many?

    If you want children don't marry someone who doesn't, and don't start lying to yourself that you can convert them into wanting children.  If both want children then how many and all within the confine of your respective income.

    Religion

    As a general rule it is best just as stated for race marry someone who is of the same religion (or similar i.e. Baptist and Methodist)  AND of the same intensity.  When one is very intense and the other is not is the same as marrying outside that religion.  

    Watch List:

    Families

    Marrying into extended families can be a blessing or a curse so watch out for meddling family member or God forbid multiple family members who meddle.

    Tidiness

    If you're a typical guy then tidiness is not at the top of your to do list.  This is where the money situation comes into play; having that extra money to bring in help cleaning a couple of times per month.


    Monday, October 5, 2026

     

    Residential

    Real Estate

    To

    Gold Ratio


    Due to massive chronic Federal budget deficits along with their handmaiden the Federal Reserve money printing a portion of those unbalanced budgets markets of all types are either over or under shooting massively (my favorite word) their respective means.  It appears to me – chief cook and bottle washer for this blog – residential real estate is going to take a smash (over priced homes) along with gold rising in price.  Once this real estate washout occurs; – (if I’m correct) – will only require 50 ounces of gold (possibly less) to purchase the average priced house.

    Till Next Time  

    Saturday, October 3, 2026

     Get Rich Quick Scheme

    That Really Works?

    Become a Congressman!



    Thursday, October 1, 2026

    Increased Lt. Bonds to 30% as Rates Rise...Gold & Stocks Remain the Same...Cash Declines

     

    Updated Monthly

    AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 10/1/26

    Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
    38% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX****
    32% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **
     30% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLAX
     0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
    [See Disclaimer]
    ** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.

    ****Many followers of DYI substitute the short term bond fund for the Permanent Portfolio Fund symbol PRPFX.  An excellent idea to add a bit of extra return when these asset categories drop into their respective undervalued valuation.   


    Margin of Safety!

    Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.
    "The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

    Stocks compared to bonds:
    Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]
    Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

    PE10  .........41.00
    Bond Rate....6.15%

    EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

    2.00+ Stocks on the give-away-table!

    1.75+ Safe for large lump sums & DCA

    1.30+ Safe for DCA

    1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

    1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

    0.50 or less:  Stock Market Crash Alert!  
    Purchase 30 year Treasury Bonds! 

    Current EYC Ratio: 0.44(rounded)
    As of  10-1-2026
    Updated Monthly

    PE10 as report by Multpl.com
    DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.
    Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

    Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

    Common Sense Investing:
    The Papers of Benjamin Graham
    Benjamin Graham



    %
    Stocks & Bonds
    Allocation Formula

    10-1-2026
    Updated Monthly

    % Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  ÷  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]
    Formula's answer determines bond allocation.


    Core Bond Allocation:  140% 

    % Stock Allocation     0% (rounded)
    % Bond Allocation  100% (rounded)

    Current Asset: Vanguard Short-Term

    Investment Grade Bond Fund   

    Logic behind this approach:
    --As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 
    --The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

    Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.

    Current Allocation:

    Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund


    Possible Allocations to Bonds vs Stocks:

    Bonds %
    100%+  Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund 

    99% to 65% Wellesley Income Fund

    64% to 35% 1/2 Wellesley Income Fund - 1/2 Wellington Fund

    34% to 20%  Equity Income Fund

    19% to 0%  Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund
      
    DYI

    This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.
    This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!
    The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.
    The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.
    Use this site at your own risk.

    PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

    The Formula.

    Tuesday, September 29, 2026


    Rob Larson’s Hit Piece!

    Comments by DYI

    The Good, the Bad, and the Downright Ugly

    Dave Ramsey Says Capitalism’s Failings Are Actually Your Fault

    The financial guru advocates blaming yourself for society-wide economic crises, and abasing yourself to pay debts no matter what.