Monday, September 21, 2026

 

Will Bonds Outperform Stocks??

Bonds:

January 2000 to December 2018

$10,000 invested Grows to $26,123

Nominal Average Annual Return 5.18%

Stocks:

January 2000 to December 2018

$10,000 invested Grows to $25,650

Nominal Average Annual Return 5.08%

Stocks are clearly in a mania as investors driving their financial cars only using their rearview mirror.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  More likely stocks will regress not just to their mean valuation they’ll drop below thus creating their respective average.  Now that bond yields have moved up; the odds now favor bonds outperforming stocks over the next 10 to 15 years.

Computed from website Of Dollars and Data  

Till Next Time

Sunday, September 20, 2026

DYI is not a doctor but Dr. Wojak is; his words will have you thinking!


Clinical Guidelines: 

Pharma’s Weapons of Mass Prescription

Where captured research becomes the standard of care.


Medical research is captured by the pharmaceutical industry, and clinical guidelines are where that captured research becomes clinical practice.

Clinical practice guidelines 

documents that tell physicians what to do. 

They define the standard of care. 

They determine what doctors prescribe, what insurers cover, and what courts consider acceptable medical practice—making them arguably the single most consequential documents in medicine.

And the organizations that write those guidelines are largely funded by and populated by the industries whose products those guidelines evaluate.

Pharmaceutical industry dictates research. 

Research dictates guidelines. 

Guidelines dictate the standard of care. 

Doctors who depart from that standard risk professional and legal consequences—meaning pharma ultimately dictates not only medical knowledge, but medical practice itself.

Clinical practice guidelines

A clinical practice guideline is a document that tells physicians how to diagnose, treat, and manage disease. For condition X, start with treatment A. If that fails, move to treatment B. Avoid treatment C.

Who writes them

The vast majority of clinical guidelines are written by private specialty societies, including the American Heart Association, the American College of Cardiology, the American Diabetes Association, the American Psychiatric Association, and others.

These are private membership organizations—not government agencies. 

They have no statutory authority, yet their recommendations effectively govern medical practice.

Why they matter

Guidelines do far more than summarize medical evidence. They define the standard of care and shape insurance reimbursement, hospital protocols, electronic medical record prompts, physician training, and malpractice litigation.

Writing a clinical guideline is effectively writing a prescription for millions of people.

Technically, they are recommendations. 

In practice, they function as the rules of modern medicine.

Global reach

American clinical guidelines influence medical practice far beyond the United States. Many countries rely on or adapt recommendations produced by major American medical societies. Decisions made by a relatively small number of guideline panels influence healthcare systems around the world.

If those guideline processes are captured, that capture is exported.

The commercial prize!


For a pharmaceutical company, 

influencing clinical guidelines is 

the highest-return on investment

 it can make.

A single guideline recommendation can make a drug the default treatment across entire healthcare systems. Once embedded in clinical guidelines, it no longer has to be sold to individual doctors—it becomes default practice, reinforced by insurance coverage, institutional protocols, and legal standards of care.

The explosion of clinical guidelines

Clinical practice guidelines didn’t always occupy the central role they do today. Before their widespread adoption in the late twentieth century, physicians relied primarily on clinical judgment, training, textbooks, and local practice.

As healthcare became increasingly standardized, guidelines evolved from reference documents into the infrastructure of medical practice. Today, thousands of clinical guidelines exist across medical specialties, with hundreds of new or updated guidelines published every year.

Guidelines derive their power not from law alone, but from the systems built around them.

In malpractice litigation, they are routinely used as a proxy for the standard of care, increasing legal risk for physicians who depart from them. Hospitals and insurers reinforce the same recommendations through reimbursement policies, clinical protocols, and electronic medical record systems.

As a result, clinical decision-making is increasingly shaped by institutional systems rather than individual judgment. Guidelines no longer simply summarize medical evidence—they define the practical boundaries of acceptable medical practice.

Capture of clinical guidelines

Both the organizations that produce clinical guidelines and the people who write them are captured by the pharmaceutical industry.

The guideline bodies

The organizations that write clinical guidelines,

 are funded by the companies whose drugs those guidelines recommend.

A 2016 PLOS Medicine study examined financial relationships between organizations that produce clinical guidelines and the medical industry. The majority had financial relationships with industry. Most had conflict-of-interest policies on paper, but few had procedures for enforcing them. The policies existed—the enforcement didn’t. Only 1% of guidelines disclosed the producing organization’s own financial relationships.

A 2020 BMJ study found that 72% of leaders of major U.S. medical associations had financial ties to industry—rising to 80% among physicians. Across the top ten disease areas, total payments to leaders approached $130 million over five years. At the top end, median individual payments exceeded $500,000 for leaders at the American Society of Clinical Oncology.  Not one organization had a leadership free of industry ties.

This is not just an American phenomenon. A 2023 study of executive board members of Japanese internal medicine societies found that 99% had received personal payments from pharmaceutical companies over five years. Total payments exceeded $70 million, with a median five-year combined payment per board member of $150,849.

The American Heart Association receives approximately $40 million annually from pharmaceutical and device companies. The American Diabetes Association receives tens of millions in industry funding. 

The American Psychiatric Association is heavily funded by antidepressant and antipsychotic manufacturers.

 These same organizations write the cardiovascular, diabetes, and psychiatry guidelines that define the standard of care.

The panel members

The organizations that produce clinical guidelines do not write them directly. They appoint committee members to decide what the guidelines will recommend. Those committees are no less intertwined with industry than the organizations themselves.

A 2023 BMJ Open study comparing self-reported disclosures to the Open Payments database found that, over a three-year period, 74% of U.S. physician authors of clinical guidelines received industry payments, but only 37% disclosed any conflict. The median payment was over $27,000. The top 25% of authors received more than $254,000. In total, these authors received $98.7 million, including $24 million that was not disclosed.

Guideline chairs were especially compromised: 82% had financial conflicts of interest, and not a single one disclosed them accurately.

A broader 2021 Mayo Clinic Proceedings review of 37 studies covering 14,764 guideline authors found that 45% had at least one financial conflict of interest, with rates reaching 100% in some specialties. Thirty-two percent had undisclosed industry payments.

A 2002 JAMA study found that among 100 respondents representing 37 clinical practice guidelines, 87% reported interactions with pharmaceutical companies, 58% had received research funding, and 38% had served as employees or consultants. Authors had ties to 10.5 different companies on average. Fifty-nine percent had relationships with companies whose drugs were directly considered in the guidelines they were writing, and 96% of those relationships predated the guideline process. Only 2 of 44 guidelines disclosed any of these relationships.

Disclosure as theater

Disclosure doesn’t eliminate bias. 

It normalizes it. 

When financial conflicts are universal, 

disclosure turns them into the baseline rather than an exception.

Disclosure also functions as “moral licensing”—giving physicians psychological permission to be more influenced by industry relationships, not less, because they feel transparency has absolved them of the conflict.

Corruption of clinical guidelines

Corruption in clinical guidelines does not just come from who sits on the panels—it’s embedded in how evidence is selected, interpreted, and turned into recommendations.

How recommendations become distorted

Guideline recommendations are only as good as the evidence they’re built on. That evidence base is not neutral. It has been shaped at every stage by the industry that stands to benefit from the recommendations.

Many guideline recommendations are based on changes in laboratory measurements rather than whether patients actually live longer or feel better. A drug can receive a strong recommendation simply for improving a test result.

The GRADE system—the main framework used to judge the quality of evidence in clinical guidelines—is supposed to distinguish strong evidence from weak. In practice, studies that look rigorous on paper can still receive high ratings despite being funded by industry, relying on indirect measures of health, or ending before long-term harms can be measured.

Roughly half of guideline recommendations are based on opinion from guideline authors rather than high-quality evidence. That opinion becomes the guideline. The guideline becomes the standard of care.

The drug bias

Guidelines systematically favor pharmaceutical interventions over non-pharmaceutical approaches. The reason is structural: drugs have companies behind them to fund trials and influence panels—lifestyle interventions don’t.

This creates a built-in imbalance in the evidence base. Drugs are extensively studied and heavily promoted, whereas diet, exercise, and behavioral interventions aren’t. Guideline panels are dominated by specialists whose careers are built around pharmacological treatments.

The result is a system that predictably produces drug-based recommendations over non-drug alternatives.

Industry’s effect on recommendations

There is a consistent association between financial conflicts of interest and more favorable recommendations for a sponsor’s drug or device.

A 2020 BMJ review found that conflicted guidelines were 26% more likely to make favorable recommendations for a sponsor’s drug or device—and this is likely a substantial underestimate. Many of the included studies relied on only disclosed conflicts of interest, which underreport industry relationships. Guideline recommendations are also built on clinical trials and reviews that are themselves influenced by industry funding. A separate Cochrane review found that industry-funded trials were 34% more likely to report favorable conclusions. The result is a layered system of bias: industry-funded trials feed into systematic reviews, which feed into guidelines. The measured effect therefore represents only the absolute floor of industry influence.

Threshold Manipulation: 

Creating New Patients


Guideline panels don’t just recommend treatments—they define who is sick. By shifting diagnostic thresholds for disease, they create millions of new patients.

Pre-diabetes. Pre-hypertension. A person can move from “healthy” to “at risk” simply because a guideline committee changes a diagnostic cutoff. Someone whose blood pressure was “normal” yesterday can become “pre-hypertensive” today because the threshold moved.

Each new threshold expands the population eligible for treatment. Pre-diabetes creates a market for blood sugar-lowering drugs. Pre-hypertension creates a market for blood pressure medications.

Friday, September 18, 2026

 

Residential

Real Estate

Has the Bubble Burst??

Prices of mid-tier single-family homes have dropped by 11% to 26% seasonally adjusted in these 15 bigger cities and counties through July, from their respective peaks, mostly in mid-2022, but two of them in 2024.

Wolf Street

1AustinTX-26%2022
2OaklandCA-24%2022
3New OrleansLA-20%2022
4Lee County (Cape Coral, Fort Myers)FL-18%2022
5Sarasota CountyFL-17%2022
6BirminghamAL-17%2022
7McKinneyTX-14%2022
8WashingtonDC-13%2022
9HaywardCA-13%2022
10Contra Costa County (East Bay)CA-12%2022
11DenverCO-12%2022
12Collier County (Naples)FL-12%2024
13PhoenixAZ-11%2022
14AuroraCO-11%2024
15Fort WorthTX-11%2022

New homes are competing with existing homes, and homebuilders have to sell homes, it’s getting tougher, and they’re buying down mortgage rates, and they’re offering lower price points, and they’re throwing incentives at buyers. And the market of existing homes feels that.

DYI:  Simply put, if prices remain too high for long enough, pricing more and more buyers out of the market, economic gravity will bring down prices to a more affordable level.  So far from my point of view higher mortgage interest rates is doing the lion share of the decline with overall high prices taking a second seat.  If mortgage rates go higher eventually it will end up being price drops far greater than what is caused by interest rates.  Throw in a recession bargains in certain areas of the country will show up.  If Price to Yearly Rents is less than 10 to 1 you’re in bargain territory (5 to 1 or less – bargain of a lifetime).

Buy vs Rent

Till Next Time

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

 

Money

Digital Printing

Equals

INFLATION!

DYI:  Contrary to what most people believe the Federal Reserve is the handmaiden to Congress’ and Presidents when they run deficits.  Money printing is necessary (purchasing primarily Treasury securities) in order to maintain or reduce interest rates from the flood of Treasuries into the market place.  Of course if this money creation is greater than any increases in efficiency higher prices – INFLATION – will end up being the end result.

Congress’ and Presidents along with the American public need to understand that government spending has it limits and those limits were past decades ago.  This has created the current national debt monster that will require fiscal discipline along with tax increases along the way in order to reduce significantly the Federal Reserves money printing.  IMO a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution is what will be required to reign in their spending.

Till Next Time!        


Monday, September 14, 2026

 

INFLATION!

The Killer of Real Returns

Don’t be surprised if the misery index makes a come back into the main stream press and social media space all due to stubborn inflation and rising unemployment.

Till Next Time