Non-scheduled mid month update!

 

Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.

"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:

Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]

Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........41.66
Bond Rate....5.50%

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

2.00+ Stocks on the give-away-table!

1.75+ Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30+ Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

0.50 or less:  Stock Market Crash Alert!  

Purchase 30 year Treasury Bonds! 

Current EYC Ratio: 0.48(rounded)

As of  5-18-2026
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com

Bond Rate is the rate as reported by

Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX)

DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.

Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

 

S&P 500

Shiller PE at 40+

It’s a Long Way down Back to Average!

DYI:  Have you ever walked down a flight of stairs thinking you’re already at the bottom but you have that last step letting out that sound upon arriving at the bottom?  Or jumping down from 6 or 7 feet and after you did thinking you won’t do that again?

Valuations are an excellent downside protection method keeping the height ever closer to the ground avoiding hurting ourselves financially. 

Today the S&P 500 Shiller PE is back in the low 40’s range (41.66) along side their dividend yield of only 1.06%!  The average S&P 500 Shiller PE since 1871 is 17.38 represents a DROP back to normal – 58.28%

(41.66 – 17.38) ÷ 41.66 X 100 = -58.28% 

More importantly the time it takes for markets to make their respective round trip (top to bottom back to top) since we’re all mere mortals attempting to “Put it all together!”

This U.S. stock market mania that began all the way back to 2018 and really got moving into crazy land back in 2023!  Valuation players, especially at major turning points become contrarian bearish investors – are seen as out of step with the new realities – or simply appear to be stupid or crazy.

Welcome to the world of The Dividend Yield Investor!

TV

Wonderland!

 

$1 Million Savings Is A Bitch

Don't take us wrong, it's a good to accumulate $1 million savings. With that amount, you are now not that far from the top 10 percent of net worth among Americans. 

This turns out to be the worst amount of money that could make you uncomfortable! On one hand, having a $1 million net worth can feel like a "worst case" scenario for some. 

The idea that while $1 million is a significant milestone, it often leaves individuals in a "wealth purgatory" where they are too affluent for basic financial concerns but not wealthy enough to feel truly secure or "rich" in an era of high housing costs and inflation. 

Oh, just for your information, Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances suggest the top 10 percent cutoff is roughly around $1.5 million to $2 million in net worth.  

In fact, these days, there are way more people whose net worth crosses the million dollar line are considering themselves poor. Rising inflation in basic needs, kids education and others is making today’s $1 million really not as significant as those sounding millionaires. Maybe it still looks like a big number on paper, but in real life it doesn’t go as far.

$1.46 Million to Retire Comfortably

This is yet another news: every year, some financial firms or organizations would put out such a number. This time, based on Northwestern Mutual, Americans Believe They Will Need $1.46 Million to Retire Comfortably, Up More Than 15% Since Last Year. That's $200K more than last year and in line with 2024 estimates.  

So of course, $1 million is not even enough to retire comfortably. 

The message is clear: 

Save more, don't be complacent.

 

U.S Economy

Another Set up for High Inflation

AND

High Interest Rates?

(1970’s Redo?)

DYI:  Budget deficits as far as the eye can see pilling on top of an already bloated national debt at 123% greater than yearly GDP.  Forcing the Federal Reserve to monetize (money printing) an ever greater portion pushing long term inflation closer to the 4% rate unless unchecked I see another redo of the 1970’s culminating in double digit inflation along with double digit interest rates. See charts below.                

 

Medical

Fakery & Gaslighting!

Hantavirus Hoax: Cruise Outbreak On Day 33 Here we go again. Another bargain basement sigh-op. Tedious in the extreme. This post is just for posterity. I really wanted to ignore the latest mind-numbing circus. Gemma O’Doherty May 7, 2026 Nice of the Wall Street Journal to remind us hantavirus is the latest hellscare hoax Summer’s on the way and the powers-that-ought-not-be had to cook up a big travel hoax to mess with normies’ heads and throw their holiday plans in the air in the hope that they will #StayHome and adjust to the 15-minute-city dystopia.  And what better way to do it than another cruise ship hoax cooked up with all the idiotic ingredients we’ve come to expect from the moronic scriptwriters: non-existent virus outbreak on Day 33 (yeah, we get it, it’s fake), infectious rats, hazmat suits, awful crisis actors, laughable storylines, and a vaccine on the way. Don’t worry. It will be ‘safe and effective’ but if you’re one of those crazy conspiracy theorists, the controlled opposition hell gurus are pushing the horse wormer again. Always does the trick when there’s a fake virus on the loose even if it’s as dangerous as all other harma drugs. Take it for anything. Clownworld controlled opposition The template is identical to Convid, needless to say. And the symptoms are all the same too. Fancy that. Reassuring to know that one of the world’s experts on the fictional virus that broke out on Day 33 of the cruise has been studying it for 33 years! Worst crisis actor to date goes to cry-baby Jake Rosmarin who couldn’t generate just one tear for his lousy performance. They roll out a massive psyop like this, send it viral (excuse the pun) and this joker is the best they could find for the lead role? We demand better crisis actors! Needless to say Jake did his training in Israhell, where the world’s worst operatives are always seeded. Unfortunately, this is where Jake is headed because ventilators are the only killer cure until the quackzine arrives. Don’t worry, it’s just a movie. And it just happens his sister works in emergency crisis management while his ‘husband’ (ugh!) works for Blackstone, the world’s largest and most diabolical asset manager. And there’s a Holocaust connection too with their grandmother so these people come from a long line of bad actors. Ireland has its very own crisis actor taking part in the hoax: Ann Lane from Cork who just happened to be personal advisor to UN demon Mary Noddy Robinson, former President of Ireland. It doesn’t get much darker than this. Ann Lane advisor to President Mary Robinson of the JewN is taking part in the hantavirus hoax The hazmat suits have been dusted down from the Covid/Bird Flu/Ebola studio wardrobes to keep the normies on edge.  Amazing the way the cameras are always on site to photograph these scary moments. Here’s some early predictive programming from The X Files. ‘They’ always like to announce their plans in advance. They’ve spent the last couple of years concocting air scare after air scare to turn people off flying and achieve their key Agenda 2030 goal of zero mass travel. Now it’s time to destroy cruising: after all, who would want to go on a cruise after this, with rats scurrying around the cabins and deadly pathogens on the loose? It’s another fear-fest to demolish the already crushed travel industry.  Your crazy dictators cannot bear the thought of you travelling beyond your 5k without permission from them and up-to-date boosters.  Covid was not a one-off. It was a long-term plan. We know where it’s heading. The cruise launched on April 1st just in case anyone thought it was a real event. Inventor of the MRNA poison, ‘Dr’ Robert Malone - hero of the fake anti-vaccine brigade in Ireland led by Louise Roseingrave - has been rolled out to push fear about the next pandemic because one of his companies just happens to have a stake in the vaccine. So you definitely know it’s a sigh-op. Meanwhile, the world’s ‘scientists’ are busy in their labs using their usual ingenious techniques to prove the latest killer virus exists. Gentle reminder And….. Wherever they plan to go with it, there’s only one response to the Hantavirus hoax: prolonged eye roll. It’s designed to send you over the edge. If you switch off your screen, hopefully you’ll never hear of it again.

 

DYI:  FINANCIAL WAR!!!

Playing the Hand you've been dealt!

Become debt free and don't give me any BS that you can't - REMEMBER ITS WAR!

Live as cheaply as possible and stop whining about it.  I don't give a shit if you are living out of your car or in Mom and Dad's basement.  Live CHEAP and learn to Love it!

Build 10k in Checking

50k in High Yield Savings Account (HYSA)

100k in a conservative mutual fund:

DYI’s favorites:

1.)      The Permanent Portfolio symbol PRPFX

2.)      Vanguard’s Tax-Managed Balance Fund symbol VTMFX

3.)      Vanguard’s Wellesley Income Fund symbol  VWINX

Always have more money saved outside of your pension plans (401k – Roth IRA etc.)

After that use DYI’s Investor’s formulas to determine additional investments for further gains greater than these base investments.

Best Wishes from an old guy who's been through the FINANCIAL WARS!

Chief cook and bottle washer of the Dividend Yield Investor!

Kenneth E. Royer

Here comes the disclaimer!

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

United Nations

True Sustainable Goals!

 Symptoms of Bull Market Top

Current Conditions:

Small check:  ✔ insignificant

Large check:  ✔ Predominant

Double check ✔✔ Significant

Double & Plus ✔✔ +  Mania

Financial indicators:

1.)  High trading volume – panic buying. ✔✔+

2.)  Substantial buying 

of equity mutual funds by the public. ✔✔+

3.)  Shiller PE¹⁰ at historical highs; 

low market dividend yield. ✔✔+

4.)  Mergers & Acquisitions and IPO’s calendar very robust. ✔ 

5.)  Widening credit spreads. ✔

6.)  Numbers of stocks making new highs are in decline. ✔

Mass Psychology:

1.)  Investors use any reason to buy. ✔✔+

2.)  Making money in the markets appears to be easy. ✔✔+

3.)  Investors can’t wait 

to read their portfolio statements. ✔✔+

4.)  Public infatuation with highly leveraged speculations. ✔

5.)  The media describes the economy and markets as goldilocks (or any other word describing perfection). ✔

6.)  Known contrarian investors are bearish – are seen as out of step with the new realities – or simply appear to be stupid or crazy. ✔✔+

7.)  Annuities and savings accounts are seen as dead investments. ✔✔+