Monday, March 9, 2026

 

DYI:  As chief cook and bottle washer for this blog anticipates over the coming years ahead for the Dow to Gold Ratio to bottom out at a 1 to 1 ratio.  At this moment with the Dow around 50,000 equates gold at $50,000. 

However stocks could very well go into a bear market (which I anticipate) dropping stock prices at a minimum of 50%. This would put the price of gold at $25,000.  Buckle up we’re all in for a bumpy ride with wild swing for gold and stocks! 

Friday, March 6, 2026

 

U.S. Stocks

Remain Massively Overvalued!

Let's not forget the Psy-Op of 9-11...

From the Desk of... 

Gemma O'Doherty's Substack




In this series, I’m sharing some of the information that persuaded me that the towers were taken down by controlled demolition and were empty at the time, as is the case in all such demolitions.  

This research has been compiled by Simon Shack, producer of the exceptional documentary ‘September Clues’, available here: www.septemberclues.org. His website is an excellent source for learning more about the Twin Towers hoax.

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

 


An Excellent Checklist

For the Next Main Stream Press

Possible Psy-Op




llllll


Be

Prepared!

U.S. Economy continues to Decline! 

If you're over 50 and still working, there's a statistic you need to know: 56% of workers your age will lose their jobs involuntarily before they planned to retire.

Not because of performance. Not because they wanted to leave. But because of layoffs, health issues, caregiving responsibilities, or age discrimination that's rarely called what it is.

And here's what makes this truly devastating: Most people in this situation never fully recover their previous income level. They end up taking lower-paying jobs, retiring earlier than planned with less saved, or scrambling to figure out what's next.

This isn't meant to scare you. It's meant to wake you up.

Because if there's even a chance you could be in that 56%, you'll need a backup plan that isn't "hope this doesn't happen to me."

Why this is happening (and why it's getting worse)

The financial reality most people face after involuntary job loss.

Why traditional retirement planning doesn't prepare you for this.

What you can build NOW while you still have income and time.

The best time to build a safety net is before you need one. And the second best time is right now.



Saturday, February 28, 2026

Yields Drop...Gold Remains Firm...DYI's Cash Positions SOARS!...Stocks Overvalued!

 

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 3/1/26

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
57% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
22% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **
 21% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]
** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  



Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.
"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:
Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]
Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........40.00
Bond Rate...5.21%

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

2.00+ Stocks on the give-away-table!

1.75+ Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30+ Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

0.50 or less:  Stock Market Crash Alert!  
Purchase 30 year Treasury Bonds! 

Current EYC Ratio: 0.53(rounded)
As of  3-1-2026
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com
DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.
Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham


%
Stocks & Bonds
Allocation Formula

3-1-2026
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]
Formula's answer determines bond allocation.


Core Bond Allocation:  137% 

% Stock Allocation     0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation  100% (rounded)

Current Asset: Vanguard Short-Term

Investment Grade Bond Fund   

Logic behind this approach:
--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 
--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  
Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.

Current Allocation:

Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund


Possible Allocations to Bonds vs Stocks:

Bonds %
100%+  Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund 

99% to 65% Wellesley Income Fund

64% to 35% 1/2 Wellesley Income Fund - 1/2 Wellington Fund

34% to 20%  Equity Income Fund

19% to 0%  Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund
  
DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.
This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!
The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.
The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.
Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

Thursday, February 19, 2026


Long Term Bonds

Bear Market Continues!

The bond buying opportunity of a lifetime with the 10 year Treasury bond interest rate peaking at 15.84% on 9-30-1981 and then declining to 0.52% on 8-4-2020.  This bull market lasted for 38 years, 10 months, and 5 days (or 14,188 days).

What to expect??  

As chief cook and bottle washer for this blog IMO we’ll experience over the coming years and very possibly the coming next two decades is ever rising interest rates all made possible by the inflation genie let out of the bottle.  These changes in rates will move through the economic cycles with rising rates during growth years and during recession rates declining at higher lows.  

Expectation:

Higher highs and higher lows.

Smart Money - Buys Aggressively!
Capitulation
Despondency

Max-Pessimism 
Depression 
Hope -  F
Relief *Market returns to Mean  - Short Term Notes & Bills or MMF

Smart Money - Buys the Dips!
Optimism - Swiss Treasury Securities and Silver 
Media Attention 
Enthusiasm - Gold

Smart Money - Sells the Rallies!
Thrill
Greed
Delusional
Max-Optimism  Residential Real Estate   - Stocks 
Denial of Problem   -BitCoin 
Anxiety 
Fear
Desperation - Long Term Bonds

Current Economic Conditions

Prosperity - Moderate
Recession - Shallow
Deflation - None
Inflation - Moderate

Economic Choices
None
Shallow
Moderate
Prominent
Extreme 

Sunday, February 15, 2026