Friday, April 10, 2026

S&P 500 Shiller PE 127% ABOVE its Average Shiller PE! U.S. Stocks are No Bargain!

 

What happens in a recession induced financial crisis?

Greed is quickly replaced by Fear.

Core survival instincts: The door slamming shut: Everything that was possible in the risk-on euphoria of greed; becomes impossible in the risk-off wilderness of fear.



Wednesday, April 8, 2026

 I’m Not a Doctor!

But Dr. Wojak is so read on and make up your own mind…

Statins Good or Statins Bad??


Statins Are an Insidious Scam: Exposing the Cholesterol Myth

Any doctor still recommending statins is inexcusably ignorant or corrupt.


Heart and blood vessel problems are responsible for over 30% of all deaths worldwide—about 20 million deaths each year. For half a century, the public has been deceived into believing that cholesterol is a villain and statins are its heroic cure. Today, over 200 million people take statins globally, making it one of the most commercially successful drugs in the history of medicine.

But statins are an insidious scam. They poison your body, degrade your mind, and cause a cascade of health problems while delivering zero real benefit. The narrative we’ve been told about fat and cholesterol? Entirely false. Cholesterol is essential, not harmful. 

And the doctors prescribing these drugs? 

They’re either clueless or corrupt, acting as hired guns for the pharmaceutical industry

Following a statin prescription from a doctor is like following financial advice from a loan shark. 

The statin-cholesterol paradigm is a gigantic, diabolical fraud.

Behind the curtain is one of the most profitable enterprises in human history: a vertically integrated system built on eternal “risk management.” In practice, that means: lie to you, trick you into harmful treatments, create new medical problems, sell more interventions, and drain your bank account—until you die early, mind and body degraded.

From blood tests and “preventative” pills to low-fat snack aisles and seed oils, fear of cholesterol drives a multi-trillion-dollar industry. Do you think it will ever tell the truth if doing so threatens the cash cow?

How we got here

The food industry and medical system have formed a deadly alliance, profiting off your suffering while poisoning you. The cholesterol myth and statin scam are just a couple of chapters in a long history of fraud.

After World War II, ultra-processed foods surged in popularity. For the first time in history at such a massive scale, people started eating highly processed foods instead of whole, minimally processed ones. This was no accident. Processed foods are much more profitable. They turn cheap commodities into branded, shelf-stable, high-markup products with extended shelf life and massive scale advantages.

As heart disease emerged as an epidemic in the mid-20th century, the food industry needed a scapegoat. They couldn’t point the finger at the ultra-processed junk they were making. So, they turned to cholesterol. Enter Ancel Keys.

In the late 1950s, Ancel Keys conducted the Seven Countries Study, which became one of the most influential pieces of propaganda in the cholesterol myth. His research selectively cherry-picked countries that supported his hypothesis that fat was the cause of heart disease. Meanwhile, he ignored countries that didn’t fit the narrative, and ignored competing hypotheses, including sugar.

By the late 1940s, the American Heart Association (AHA)’s rise coincided with funding linked to Procter & Gamble—a company whose major products included the hydrogenated vegetable oil Crisco. Soon after, the AHA promoted dietary advice favoring vegetable oils and discouraging saturated fat, adopting Keys’ theory while other factors—like ultra-processed foods—were swept under the rug. The result was a widespread belief that dietary fat—especially saturated fat—raised cholesterol levels, which were assumed to cause heart disease.

Fast forward to the 1970s-80s: government dietary guidelines were solidified, pushing a low-fat, high-carb agenda. The result? A massive rise in obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease.

The 1992 USDA Food Pyramid, summarizing decades of low-fat, high-carb dietary guidelines.

Then in 1987, statins hit the market as prescription drugs, and the marketing blitz began. Cholesterol was cemented as the ultimate dietary villain in the public mind, and by continuously lowering the “recommended” levels of cholesterol, statin prescriptions skyrocketed. The statin market was born. And it continues to grow, with billions in revenue year after year.

Through all of this, voices warning against this system were ignored, drowned out, or outright censored by powerful commercial interests. The Atkins Diet, which went against Keys’ low-fat, high-carb dogma, was widely demonized in the media. Those who spoke out against the cholesterol myth were silenced, while the narrative continued to thrive.

Some basic cholesterol facts

Despite what you’ve heard in the media, cholesterol is not harmful—it’s essential. Your body manufactures it deliberately. About 75% of the cholesterol in your body is made by your own system.

Cholesterol levels fluctuate based on many factors—they vary seasonally, typically being lower in the summer and higher in the winterStress, diet, exercise, and even the weather can all influence cholesterol levels, meaning it’s not a simple, static figure.

Cholesterol is crucial for brain function. While your brain makes up only around 2% of your body weight, it contains about 25% of your total cholesterol.

Do you really want to take a drug that actively reduces the cholesterol in your brain? Is it any wonder statin users experience cognitive issues—aptly referred to as “statin brain”?

The cholesterol myth

For over fifty years, we’ve been conditioned to fear cholesterol—despite it being a vital substance our bodies literally can’t live without.

The original theory, popularized in the 1950s, blamed cholesterol as a whole. The claim was that eating saturated fat—primarily from foods like red meat, butter, eggs, and full-fat dairy—raised blood cholesterol, which in turn caused heart disease.

When this story failed to hold up under scrutiny, the goalposts were moved. Total cholesterol quietly faded from focus. Cholesterol was split into two different types: “good” (HDL) and “bad” (LDL), and LDL cholesterol alone was rebranded as the villain. From that point on, medical intervention targeted LDL cholesterol specifically—pushed ever lower with each new set of guidelines.

We’re told to imagine LDL cholesterol as greasy sludge clogging the pipes of our arteries, but human arteries aren’t kitchen drains, and cholesterol doesn’t behave like sludge. Fats in the body are transported in liquid form, carried by lipoproteins—more like courier trucks than clots blocking flow. And autopsy data show that most heart attacks occur at sites where blood flow was perfectly normal before the event.

There is no shortage of evidence undermining the broader cholesterol hypothesis—total cholesterol, ratios, triglycerides, and more. But today, the statin narrative hinges on the claim that high levels of LDL cholesterol cause heart disease.

If high LDL cholesterol were truly the cause of heart disease, patients with the highest LDL cholesterol would suffer the most events. They don’t.

What follows isn’t an exhaustive critique of cholesterol theory—it’s a focused debunking of the LDL cholesterol justification for statin use.

Clinical observations

Population data

Global comparisons

Dietary intervention trials

  • Minnesota Coronary Experiment (1968–1973): Participants who replaced saturated-fat-rich foods—such as butter, meat, and whole milk—with vegetable oils and margarine lowered their LDL cholesterol, yet heart-disease deaths did not fall. Those whose cholesterol dropped the most were actually more likely to die. The findings were suppressed for over a decade.

  • Lyon Diet Heart Study (1980s): Participants who followed a Mediterranean-style, whole-food diet—including olive oil, fish, and nuts—saw heart disease deaths drop by roughly 75%, even though LDL cholesterol barely changed. The results were so dramatic the study was ended early for ethical reasons: continuing the low-fat, cholesterol-lowering diet was considered too harmful.

No real benefits from statins

The previous section showed that high LDL cholesterol does not cause heart disease. Statins are designed to lower your LDL cholesterol, but do they actually prevent heart attacks or extend your life? (Spoiler alert: no.)

Even if we take the industry’s own optimistic (and deceptive) numbers at face value, the benefits are virtually non-existent.

Researchers consistently found that lowering LDL cholesterol had no significant effect on total mortality. In some trials, more people actually died in the statin group.

Even these tiny numbers are massively inflated by the pharmaceutical industry through selective reporting and deceptive, industry-funded research. The reality: hundreds medicate, one might benefit, and the supposed benefit isn’t even due to the cholesterol-lowering properties of statins. Any improvement likely comes from mild anti-inflammatory or anti-clotting effects—benefits that can be achieved much more effectively and safely with diet, exercise, and lifestyle.

The minuscule (and illusory) benefits might be forgivable if statins weren’t extremely harmful, which they are.

The harm caused by statins

Statins don’t just fail to extend your life—they destroy your quality of life.

With most medicines, negative side effects show up pretty quickly—for example, nausea, vomiting, rash, headache, or dizziness. Statins are different. Their side effects creep in gradually—months or years after starting. By then, the link is obscured, and patients are often told they’ve developed a new condition requiring another prescription.

Below are some of the side effects statins cause. Most are even acknowledged on the official package inserts, though severity and prevalence of these harms are drastically downplayed.

  • Muscle pain and weakness: officially labeled as “rare,” yet it’s the #1 reason people quit statins, with most stopping within two years of starting. Real-world surveys show it affects over 20% of users.

  • Persistent fatigue and low energy: commonly reported by 10–20% of users, even though clinical trials often dismiss it as “nonspecific.”

  • Increases risk of developing diabetes and weight gain: acknowledged on FDA labels but downplayed as “small”; occurs in about 1 in 10 long‑term users.

  • Cognitive problemsforgetfulness, brain fog, and memory lapses (aptly named “statin brain”) affect roughly 5–10% of users. Long-term statin use has been linked in some studies to increased risk of serious cognitive decline, including dementia and Alzheimer’s.

  • Hormonal disruptionlow libido, erectile dysfunction, and reduced testosterone or estrogen levels; affects several percent of men and women on long-term statins, though rarely acknowledged in guidelines.

  • Liver strain and abnormal enzymesacknowledged by mainstream medicine; occurs in 1–3% of users and can sometimes progress to serious liver damage.

  • Possible increase in long‑term cancer risk: not listed on labels, but independent studies in populations with very low cholesterol have reported associations with higher cancer incidence.

And that’s just what’s been reported. The true scope of statin harm is far greater.

Most side effects never make it into official records. Only 1–5% of adverse reactions are formally documented, meaning the real impact on patients’ health is dramatically underestimated. The reality is orders of magnitude worse.

How Big Pharma Deceives You

Almost every major statin trial was funded by the very companies that stood to profit from positive results.

They control the data, the publication rights, and the press releases. When a negative result threatens profits, it quietly disappears.

That isn’t science—it’s marketing with footnotes.

I’ve documented the broader corruption of medical journals and published research elsewhere. What follows are the tactics most relevant to how the pharmaceutical industry manufactures the illusion that statins are safe and effective.

Here’s how they do it.

Rigging the study participants in advance

Before a clinical trial even begins, researchers “pre-screen” participants. On paper, it sounds like routine housekeeping; in practice, it filters out anyone likely to report problems later.

  • Placebo run-in: Participants take a dummy pill for weeks. Those who report problems are removed. The result is a population more likely to tolerate the drug and less likely to complain, even about real harms.

  • Active-drug run-in: Participants take the actual statin for a few weeks before the trial officially starts. Anyone who develops muscle pain, fatigue, memory issues, or other statin side effects is quietly removed for “intolerance.”

By the time the trial officially begins, the population has been hand-picked to include only the most compliant and tolerant participants. Every person most at risk of harm has already been edited out. It’s an effective way to make a toxic drug look harmless.

Advertising “relative risk” to make tiny differences seem huge

One of the oldest tricks in the pharmaceutical playbook is the relative vs. absolute risk deception.

If a drug reduces heart-attack risk from 2% to 1%, the real-world benefit is 1 percentage point.

But that same result is advertised as a “50% reduction in risk.”

The math is technically correct—and profoundly misleading. When you delete the denominator, tiny effects suddenly look dramatic.

That single statistical maneuver turns a marginal difference into a media headline and justifies a lifetime prescription.

Patients end up sacrificing their health for a ratio that exists only on paper.

Silencing dissent

Doctors and researchers who question the statin narrative are branded “anti-science,” while industry-aligned voices receive front-page coverage.

Medical journals—typically financially dependent on pharmaceutical advertising and reprint sales—decide which studies are “not of sufficient public interest.”

The media then cites those same journals to label alternative analyses as “misinformation.”

The feedback loop is airtight: fund the research, filter the participants, spin the numbers, and suppress dissent.

Every step leads to the same outcome—a scientific record in which statins win, and the people harmed by them effectively disappear.

Conclusion

This was never an honest mistake.

The 

flaws in the cholesterol hypothesis 

have been known for decades. 

The harms of statins have been

 documented since the 1990s. 

The role of ultra-processed, sugary foods in chronic disease has been obvious to anyone willing to look. 

Yet the same institutions—medical journals, guideline committees, regulatory boards—continue to act as if none of this exists.

Why? Because too much money, status, and legal liability are tied to maintaining the illusion.

A cardiologist who challenges the guidelines risks losing grants, hospital privileges, and even their medical license—facing professional censure, legal threats, or career-ending retaliation. A journal that publishes inconvenient data risks losing the revenue from the pharmaceutical industry that keeps it afloat. So the narrative survives—not because it’s true, but because it’s enforced.

Despite overwhelming evidence of harm, cholesterol targets are continuously lowered. Statins are now promoted for lifelong usefor children, and even floated as candidates for mass medication. Many doctors go so far as to suggest adding statins to the water supply—a testament not to science, but to institutional momentum and groupthink.

Statins aren’t about health—they’re a profit engine.

 A drug that fails to extend life, causes widespread harm, and still dominates global guidelines tells you everything about the system that protects it.

Doctors repeat the same talking points, but the narrative collapses when patients stop taking statins, clean up their diets, and feel better.

The statin story isn’t just about one drug. It’s a case study in modern medicine itself.

 Replace “cholesterol” with almost any other manufactured health crisis and you’ll see the same machinery at work: 

Exaggerated Fear, Captured Science, Compliant Media, and Silenced Dissent.



Monday, April 6, 2026

S&P 500 potential for a 60-70% market loss over the completion of this long term cycle.

 

Bubble

Quotes!

It’s also conceptually squishy to equate “passive” investment with durable and reliable “price-insensitive” behavior. My impression is that all investors care about the long-term returns that they can expect from their investments. 

It’s just that long periods of market advance inspire a dangerous confidence that valuations have nothing to do with long-term returns. Instead, they come to imagine that long-term return prospects are always positive, and therefore that any price is a good price. 

If market history is clear on one point, it’s that this confidence can ultimately change on a dime.

John Hussman Ph.D of The Hussman Funds

*******************************************************

Strictly speaking, there can be no such thing as an ‘investment issue’ in the absolute sense, i.e., implying that it remains an investment regardless of price. The ‘new era’ doctrine – that ‘good’ stocks were sound investments regardless of how high the price paid for them – was only a means of rationalizing under the title of ‘investment’ the well-nigh universal capitulation to the gambling fever.

 

The notion that the desirability of a common stock was entirely independent of its price seems incredibly absurd. Yet the new-era theory led directly to this thesis… An alluring corollary of this principle was that making money in the stock market was now the easiest thing in the world. It was only necessary to buy ‘good’ stocks, regardless of price, and then to let nature take her upward course. The results of such a doctrine could not fail to be tragic.


– Benjamin Graham & David L. Dodd, Security Analysis, 1934

Friday, April 3, 2026

 

Interest Rate

Secular Movement

Next 10 to 20 Years is for Higher Rates!

DYI:  Interest rates over the next one to even possibly two decades will be on balance ever increasing.  The movement with increasing highs and most importantly during recessions ever higher lows.  This is caused by our well know extreme Debt to GDP ratio with neither political party willing to address their massive spending (Forcing the Federal Reserve to monetize the debt causing inflation). 

With an impending possible recession on the horizon interest rates could possibly fall.  However I would find it very doubtful – using the 10 year Treasury bond as bell weather – to break below its 0.52% yield set in August 4, 2020.  Breaking below 2% would require massive money printing by the Federal Reserve setting off inflation well into the teens (possibly higher). 

The Feds are trapped they will do money printing during the next recession but will not go to bazooka size.  They will have to let the stock market fall to the shock of the top 30% (and especially the top 10%).        

Wednesday, April 1, 2026

Gold trading at its mean; stocks massively overvalued; bonds trading near their mean; high % cash position!

 

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 4/1/26

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
51% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
25% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **
 24% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]
** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  


Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.
"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:
Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]
Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........37.62
Bond Rate...5.54%

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

2.00+ Stocks on the give-away-table!

1.75+ Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30+ Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

0.50 or less:  Stock Market Crash Alert!  
Purchase 30 year Treasury Bonds! 

Current EYC Ratio: 0.53(rounded)
As of  4-1-2026
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com
DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.
Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham



%
Stocks & Bonds
Allocation Formula

4-1-2026
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]
Formula's answer determines bond allocation.


Core Bond Allocation:  128% 

% Stock Allocation     0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation  100% (rounded)

Current Asset: Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade Bond Fund   

Logic behind this approach:
--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 
--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  
Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.

Current Allocation:

Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund


Possible Allocations to Bonds vs Stocks:

Bonds %
100%+  Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund 

99% to 65% Wellesley Income Fund

64% to 35% 1/2 Wellesley Income Fund - 1/2 Wellington Fund

34% to 20%  Equity Income Fund

19% to 0%  Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund
  
DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.
This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!
The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.
The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.
Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.