INFLATION!
The Killer of Real Returns
Don’t be surprised if the misery index makes a come back into the main
stream press and social media space all due to stubborn inflation and rising
unemployment.
Formula Based Asset Allocation*** STOCKS *** BONDS *** GOLD *** CASH................................ GeoPolitics/Economics...Removing Theory from Conspiracies
COVID
Medical
Industrial
Complex!
The excuse that “nobody knew,” or that hospitals were simply following the best available evidence, is absurd.
Warnings existed before the COVID protocols were implemented and continued afterward.
Hospitals ignored them regardless.
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A man who pumped gas and swept floors for a living died with an $8 million portfolio, and almost nobody who knew him had any idea.
The story goes as follows: Ronald Read grew up in an impoverished farming family in Dummerston, Vermont. He walked or hitchhiked four miles each way to get to high school, and he became the first person in his family to graduate. He served in World War II, in North Africa, Italy, and the Pacific theater. When he came home he went to work at Haviland’s service station, where he stayed for about 25 years. He retired for a year, then took a part time janitor job at a JCPenney store, where he worked for 17 more years until 1997.
He lived on almost nothing. Worn flannel shirts. He scavenged fallen branches for his wood stove. He drove a secondhand Toyota Yaris, and his lawyer remembers that on one of his last visits he parked far away from the meters just to save the coins. His only real indulgence was breakfast at the local coffee shop, where someone once paid his bill under the assumption that he could not afford it.
But every day he read the Wall Street Journal. His lawyer, Laurie Rowell, said that was about the only clue anyone ever had. “Investing and cutting wood, he was good at both of them,” she said.
When Read died in June 2014 at age 92, the town of Brattleboro found out what he had been doing all those years. He left $1.2 million to the Brooks Memorial Library and $4.8 million to Brattleboro Memorial Hospital, the largest bequests each institution had ever received. “It was a thunderbolt from the sky,” said the library’s executive director, Jerry Carbone.
How does a janitor amass almost $8 million?
He bought dividend paying blue chip stocks, held them for decades, reinvested the dividends, avoided companies he did not understand, technology especially, and never stopped. He was not a genius stock picker.
He was a patient one, with a high savings rate and a very long horizon.
The Twist:
FOMO, the Fear of Missing Out
Read is famous precisely because he felt none of the urges that drive most of us. No need to own the hot stock of the year. No panic when markets fell. No itch to sell what he had and chase what was moving. The bias he never fell for is the one most of us struggle with every week: FOMO, plus its quieter cousin, recency bias, the feeling that whatever went up lately will keep going up, and that we are somehow late if we are not in it.
We should be honest about the other side of this story too. Read is celebrated partly because his outcome was exceptional, and that is survivorship bias talking. For every janitor who picked blue chips and held for 50 years, there are plenty of people who picked the wrong blue chip, or the wrong anything, and quietly did far worse. Individual stock selection carries real risk, and no single outcome, however heartwarming, proves that picking stocks is the safest road.
The Takeaway:
1. The savings rate matters more than the stock picks. Read’s fortune came from spending little, saving steadily, and giving the money decades. You can do the compounding part with an index fund and skip the stock picking risk entirely.
2. Stay with what you understand. Read avoided technology companies he did not get. For most of us, the honest version of that discipline is a low cost, diversified index fund. Boring is a feature, not a bug.
3. Give compounding time. Reinvested dividends did the heavy lifting over five decades. The single biggest input was time in the market, not timing the market.
Bubble
Protection!
The U.S. stock market has been in a bubble for years; however investors
who understand valuations and studied past bubbles know that this party will
end. And end it will with stocks
regressing back to their mean and typically overshooting below. Stocks: measured by the S&P 500 Shiller
PE is 136% above its average a mockery of anything resembling investing!
Permanent Portfolio's Worst Decline...
During the 2008 financial crisis, the Permanent Portfolio Class I shares
(PRPFX) experienced a maximum peak-to-trough drawdown of 27.16%. This drop
started from a peak on May 20, 2008, and reached its trough on November 20,
2008, recovering relatively quickly compared to pure equity benchmarks. Price
recovery took 221 trading sessions (roughly 11 months).
S&P 500 Index: Plunged -57% from its pre-crisis
peak to its early 2009 trough, taking over four years to fully recover.
As long as U.S. stocks remain at nose bleed levels I’ll have an anti-thesis towards equities; the upside is now significantly less than the downside. Its time for protection! Gleaned from my model portfolio and/or PRPFX.
Updated Monthly
Bubble
News!
DYI: This high rate of return has been
maintained since 2018; however, the market’s acceleration is marginally slowing
down. A high return environment cannot
be maintained with stock prices growing substantially faster than the overall
economy. Eventually stock prices – will regress
back to the mean and overshoot to the downside.
This stock market and economy reminds me when everything peaked out in 1966 with stocks and bonds going into the tank until 1981 for bonds and 1982 for stocks.