- DYI’s Recession warning checklist:
- Two year Treasury notes invert ten year Treasury Bonds.
- Widening credit spread…Comparing yields between the 5 year Treasury note and Vanguard’s High-Yield Corporate Bond Fund.
- Falling stock prices…S&P 500 fifty day moving average below the two hundred day moving average.
- Falling Home Builders Index…The indexes fifty day average below its respective two hundred day average. Wells Fargo Housing Market Index symbol HMI
- Purchases Managers Index: PMI below 50
DYI:
When all five indicators are present recession is imminent – within 90
days – or already present but not recognized by the majority of the investment
community.
DYI
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