Recession Indicators


  • DYI’s Recession warning checklist:
  • Two year Treasury notes invert ten year Treasury Bonds.
  • Widening credit spread…Comparing yields between the 5 year Treasury note and Vanguard’s High-Yield Corporate Bond Fund.
  • Falling stock prices…S&P 500 fifty day moving average below the two hundred day moving average.
  • Falling Home Builders Index…The indexes fifty day average below its respective two hundred day average.  Wells Fargo Housing Market Index symbol HMI 
  • Purchases Managers Index:  PMI below 50

DYI:  When all five indicators are present recession is imminent – within 90 days – or already present but not recognized by the majority of the investment community.
DYI

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