Monday, May 13, 2024

 5%+

Cash is King!

Buffett Invests in T-bills instead of Stocks, Waits for Bad Stuff to Happen, Cash is King at 5%-plus

Thursday, May 9, 2024

USA

Land of the Rip Offs

From the Desk of

Miles Mathis

Biden just called for raising taxes on the rich and all the alternative and “conservative” sites like Breitbart, Infowars, Gateway Pundit, and Zerohedge are in a tizzy. Showing us where their loyalty really lies. Some wonder why I call myself a liberal, but you are about to see why again. I am not a democratic party liberal or progressive, obviously. I have no use for Biden. I am an old-school liberal, in favor of protecting the little guy from rapine by the rich. OF COURSE the rich need to be taxed more and the poor and middle taxed less! And that is just a start. 

So many other things need to be done as well, starting with enforcing existing laws against collusion by the wealthy and re-regulating big business, including the banks and huge investment groups.

The income inequality in this country was always obscene, but it is now just criminal. Such regulation isn't Communism or Socialism, though that is what these people always try to tell you. It is just the enforcement of sensible laws against racketeering, money laundering, and worldwide theft.

 [DYI:  Not just our nation the entire western world was psyoped into taking a bogus vaccine for a disease that doesn’t exist ripping off estimated 3 trillion in U.S. dollars.  Big Pharma is organized crime who racketeer (business model based on fraud) and this is only one example!]  

Get this through your head: ENFORCING LAWS AGAINST THEFT IS NOT COMMUNISM! It is simply the foundation of a civil society.

The very rich are now getting away with mass pillaging, it is that simple. Government is no longer government, it is just a vast front for and shakedown by the very rich. We used to have crony capitalism, but now we don't even have that, the economy just being a monstrous vaudeville in which you pay for a million things you aren't getting. 

Fake space programs, fake nuclear programs, fake anti-terrorism programs, fake security, fake bombs, missiles and planes, fake wars, and fake research in a thousand fake fields. And the few things that are being delivered no one wants: fake school shootings put on by thousands of agents, fake BLM parades and riots, fake Antifa, fake trannie programs run to cause chaos, 24/7 fake news, and a very real invasion by illegal immigrants.

You are paying the salaries of hundreds of agents who have nothing better to do than run psyops on you all day and all year. A lot of them are in the Department of Defense, residing on AFBs, since, like the CIA and FBI, these people have nothing else to do. 

There is no real mafia, no terrorism, and no real wars, but these people have to justify their paychecks somehow. So they have declared war on you. 

As the taxpayer, you have been tapped to underwrite an entire Matrix of lies and fictional events, most of them with you as the target. You are paying these people to attack you, steal from you, and ultimately destroy you.

[DYI:  The problem with thieves as long as they get away with stealing from you they will always come back for more as we've have witnessed rapidity making the American public an easy mark!  The billionaires (and trillionaire families) will not stop stealing until either we stop them or when there is nothing left to heist (with many of us dead)]  

If you could stop all those programs, your taxes would go WAY down. Defense could be cut by 90% and we would still be outspending China. Intel could be cut by 98% and no one would miss it. Mental health would skyrocket. Banker welfare could be immediately ended. Meaning, private banks shouldn't be loaning money to the treasury at interest, and shouldn't be in control of the Federal Reserve. Banking should be nationalized, like the post office. It should be a service, not a scheme of profit. The space program should be scaled back to reality, ditto for the rest of science. Outside NASA, science funding is pretty low: it just needs to be redirected into real programs instead of fake ones. As for the arts, they are actually underfunded, which—with Modernism—was fine with everyone, including me. But real art should be brought back and refunded.

If we reformed society on those foundations, we wouldn't have to tax the rich more, since they would lose most of their methods of theft. It is illogical to let them steal and then try to steal some of it back through taxes. Better to keep them from stealing in the first place, right?

Thank You

Miles Mathis

Wednesday, May 1, 2024

Monthly Update!


 Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 5/1/24

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
29% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
45% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **
 26% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]
** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

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Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.
"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:
Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]
Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........33.43
Bond Rate...5.47%
EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

1.75 plus: Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30 Plus: Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

Current EYC Ratio: 0.60(rounded)
As of  5-1-24
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com
DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.
Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.
Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham


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%
Stocks & Bonds
Allocation Formula
5-1-24
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]
Formula's answer determines bond allocation.


% Stock Allocation     0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation  100% (rounded) 

Logic behind this approach:
--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 
--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  
Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.        
  
DYI

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Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

A value based allocation strategy