10-1-2025
Updated Monthly
Updated Monthly
Secular Market Top* - Since January 2000
+303.6% Dow
+427.9% Transports
+294.6% Utilities
+355.2% S&P 500
+456.9% Nasdaq
+ 27.0% 30yr Treasury Bond
+1237.4% Gold
+97.8% Swiss Franc
From High to Low - Since Year 2000
+1237.4% Gold
+456.9% NASDAQ
+427.9% Transports
+355.% S&P 500
+294.6% Utilities
+303.6% Dow
+143.6% Oil
+97.8% Swiss Franc’s
+27.0%
30yr Treasury Bonds
December 1999 Shiller PE10 was 44.19
August 2000 S&P 500 dividend yield was 1.11%
Shiller PE10 10-1-25 is 40.11 132% above its mean (17.28) since 1871.
S&P 500 dividend yield 10-1-25 is 1.15% 73% below its mean (4.22%) since 1871.
[Shiller PE10 & dividend yield is reported using data from the beginning or end of the month when I update. It may or may not exactly be the first or last trading day of the month.]
10-1-25
S&P 500 Stock-earnings yield 2.49%
Bond rate 5.21%
Stock-earnings yield/bond yield = 48% of present bond yield.
Dividend yield/bond yield = 22% of the present bond yield.
*Measured by valuations.
Year 2000 Shiller PE peaked at 44.19 with a scant S&P 500 dividend yield at 1.11%. This high Shiller PE and low dividend yield has not been surpassed since 1871.
Stock-earnings yield (December 1999) was 2.26%. High grade corporate bonds were in the 7% range in abundance. This would push my EYC ratio - [see Ben Graham's Corner] - to 0.36! Anything below 0.50 is in crash alert range.
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It is easily seen in the year 2000 the Nasdaq was horribly overvalued and gold was on the give away table, such lopsided returns 25+ years later!
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