% Since 2000

2-1-2025
Updated Monthly

Secular Market Top* - Since January 2000

+287.4% Dow       

+447.7% Transports 

+252.7% Utilities

+311.1%  S&P 500

+382.3%  Nasdaq

+ 25.8%  30yr Treasury Bond

+871.2% Gold

+183.3% Oil
  +72.9% Swiss Franc 

    

From High to Low - Since Year 2000

+ 871.2% Gold

+ 447.7% Transports

+ 382.3% Nasdaq

+ 311.1% S&P 500

+ 252.7% Utilities
+ 287.4% Dow
+ 183.3% Oil

+   72.9% Swiss Franc

+   25.8% 30yr Treasury Bonds

December 1999 Shiller PE10 was 44.19               
August 2000 S&P 500 dividend yield was 1.11%  

Shiller PE10 2-1-25 is 38.07  121% above its mean (17.20) since 1871.

S&P 500 dividend yield 2-1-25 is 1.24%  71% below its mean (4.24%) since 1871.

[Shiller PE10 & dividend yield is reported using data from the beginning or end of the month when I update.  It may or may not exactly be the first or last trading day of the month.]

2-1-25

S&P 500 Stock-earnings yield 2.63%

Bond rate 5.36%

Stock-earnings yield/bond yield = 49% of  present bond yield.

Dividend yield/bond yield = 23% of the present bond yield.

*Measured by valuations.  Year 2000 Shiller PE peaked at 44.19 with a scant S&P 500 dividend yield at 1.11%.  These high Shiller PE or low dividend yield has not been surpassed since 1871.

Stock-earnings yield (December 1999) was 2.26%.  High grade corporate bonds were in the 7% range in abundance.  This would push my EYC ratio - [see Ben Graham's Corner] - at 0.36!  Anything below 0.50 is in crash alert range.    

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It is easily seen in the year 2000 the Nasdaq was horribly overvalued and gold was on the give away table, such lopsided returns 20+ years later!