8-1-2025
Updated Monthly
Updated Monthly
Secular Market Top* - Since January 2000
+283.8% Dow
+418.8% Transports
+288.6% Utilities
+331.5% S&P 500
+419.1% Nasdaq
+ 24.7% 30yr Treasury Bond
+1037.2% Gold
+94.0% Swiss Franc
From High to Low - Since Year 2000
+1037.2% Gold
+419.1% NASDAQ
+418.8% Transports
+331.5% S&P 500
+288.6% Utilities
+283.8% Dow
+170.5% Oil
+94.0% Swiss Franc’s
+24.7%
30yr Treasury Bonds
December 1999 Shiller PE10 was 44.19
August 2000 S&P 500 dividend yield was 1.11%
Shiller PE10 8-1-25 is 38.66 124% above its mean (17.26) since 1871.
S&P 500 dividend yield 8-1-25 is 1.22% 71% below its mean (4.23%) since 1871.
[Shiller PE10 & dividend yield is reported using data from the beginning or end of the month when I update. It may or may not exactly be the first or last trading day of the month.]
8-1-25
S&P 500 Stock-earnings yield 2.59%
Bond rate 5.39%
Stock-earnings yield/bond yield = 48% of present bond yield.
Dividend yield/bond yield = 23% of the present bond yield.
*Measured by valuations. Year 2000 Shiller PE peaked at 44.19 with a scant S&P 500 dividend yield at 1.11%. This high Shiller PE or low dividend yield has not been surpassed since 1871.
Stock-earnings yield (December 1999) was 2.26%. High grade corporate bonds were in the 7% range in abundance. This would push my EYC ratio - [see Ben Graham's Corner] - to 0.36! Anything below 0.50 is in crash alert range.
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It is easily seen in the year 2000 the Nasdaq was horribly overvalued and gold was on the give away table, such lopsided returns 25+ years later!
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