% Since 2000

7-1-2025
Updated Monthly

Secular Market Top* - Since January 2000

+283.5% Dow       

+417.1% Transports 

+272.1% Utilities

+322.3%  S&P 500

+400.6%  Nasdaq

+ 26.4%  30yr Treasury Bond

+1042.2% Gold

+154.3% Oil
  +98.6% Swiss Franc 

    

From High to Low - Since Year 2000

+ 1042.2% Gold

+ 417.1% Transports

+ 400.6% Nasdaq

+ 322.3% S&P 500

+ 283.5% Dow
+ 272.1% Utilities
+ 154.3% Oil

+   98.6% Swiss Franc

+   26.4% 30yr Treasury Bonds

December 1999 Shiller PE10 was 44.19               
August 2000 S&P 500 dividend yield was 1.11%  

Shiller PE10 7-1-25 is 37.65  118% above its mean (17.25) since 1871.

S&P 500 dividend yield 7-1-25 is 1.23%  71% below its mean (4.23%) since 1871.

[Shiller PE10 & dividend yield is reported using data from the beginning or end of the month when I update.  It may or may not exactly be the first or last trading day of the month.]

7-1-25

S&P 500 Stock-earnings yield 2.66%

Bond rate 5.43%

Stock-earnings yield/bond yield = 49% of  present bond yield.

Dividend yield/bond yield = 23% of the present bond yield.

*Measured by valuations.  Year 2000 Shiller PE peaked at 44.19 with a scant S&P 500 dividend yield at 1.11%.  This high Shiller PE or low dividend yield has not been surpassed since 1871.

Stock-earnings yield (December 1999) was 2.26%.  High grade corporate bonds were in the 7% range in abundance.  This would push my EYC ratio - [see Ben Graham's Corner] - to 0.36!  Anything below 0.50 is in crash alert range.    

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It is easily seen in the year 2000 the Nasdaq was horribly overvalued and gold was on the give away table, such lopsided returns 25+ years later!