% Since 2000

1-1-2025
Updated Monthly

Secular Market Top* - Since January 2000

+260.0% Dow       

+428.3% Transports 

+272.1% Utilities

+282.9%  S&P 500

+334.6%  Nasdaq

+ 38.7%  30yr Treasury Bond

+793.2% Gold

+168.2% Oil
  +85.6% Swiss Franc 

    

From High to Low - Since Year 2000

+ 793.2% Gold

+ 428.3% Transports

+ 334.6% Nasdaq

+ 282.9% S&P 500

+ 272.1% Utilities
+ 260.0% Dow
+ 168.2% Oil

+   85.6% Swiss Franc

+   38.7% 30yr Treasury Bonds

December 1999 Shiller PE10 was 44.19               
August 2000 S&P 500 dividend yield was 1.11%  

Shiller PE10  1-1-25 is 38.54  124% above its mean (17.19) since 1871.

S&P 500 dividend yield 1-1-25 is 1.24%  71% below its mean (4.24%) since 1871.

[Shiller PE10 & dividend yield is reported using data from the beginning or end of the month when I update.  It may or may not exactly be the first or last trading day of the month.]

1-1-25

S&P 500 Stock-earnings yield 2.59%

Bond rate 5.38%

Stock-earnings yield/bond yield = 48% of  present bond yield.

Dividend yield/bond yield = 23% of the present bond yield.

*Measured by valuations.  Year 2000 Shiller PE peaked at 44.19 with a scant S&P 500 dividend yield at 1.11%.  These high Shiller PE or low dividend yield has not been surpassed since 1871.

Stock-earnings yield (December 1999) was 2.26%.  High grade corporate bonds were in the 7% range in abundance.  This would push my EYC ratio - [see Ben Graham's Corner] - at 0.36!  Anything below 0.50 is in crash alert range.    

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It is easily seen in the year 2000 the Nasdaq was horribly overvalued and gold was on the give away table, such lopsided returns 20+ years later!