5-1-2025
Updated Monthly
Updated Monthly
Secular Market Top* - Since January 2000
+253.7% Dow
+358.1% Transports
+264.5% Utilities
+279.0% S&P 500
+328.7% Nasdaq
+ 27.8% 30yr Treasury Bond
+1046.1% Gold
+90.7% Swiss Franc
From High to Low - Since Year 2000
+ 1046.1% Gold
+ 358.1% Transports
+ 328.7% Nasdaq
+ 279.0% S&P 500
+ 264.5% Utilities
+ 253.7% Dow
+ 127.4% Oil
+ 253.7% Dow
+ 127.4% Oil
+ 90.7% Swiss Franc
+ 27.8% 30yr Treasury Bonds
December 1999 Shiller PE10 was 44.19
August 2000 S&P 500 dividend yield was 1.11%
Shiller PE10 5-1-25 is 34.47 100% above its mean (17.21) since 1871.
December 1999 Shiller PE10 was 44.19
August 2000 S&P 500 dividend yield was 1.11%
Shiller PE10 5-1-25 is 34.47 100% above its mean (17.21) since 1871.
S&P 500 dividend yield 3-1-25 is 1.35% 68% below its mean (4.23%) since 1871.
[Shiller PE10 & dividend yield is reported using data from the beginning or end of the month when I update. It may or may not exactly be the first or last trading day of the month.]
3-1-25
S&P 500 Stock-earnings yield 2.90%
Bond rate 5.41%
Stock-earnings yield/bond yield = 54% of present bond yield.
Dividend yield/bond yield = 25% of the present bond yield.
*Measured by valuations. Year 2000 Shiller PE peaked at 44.19 with a scant S&P 500 dividend yield at 1.11%. These high Shiller PE or low dividend yield has not been surpassed since 1871.
Stock-earnings yield (December 1999) was 2.26%. High grade corporate bonds were in the 7% range in abundance. This would push my EYC ratio - [see Ben Graham's Corner] - at 0.36! Anything below 0.50 is in crash alert range.
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It is easily seen in the year 2000 the Nasdaq was horribly overvalued and gold was on the give away table, such lopsided returns 20+ years later!
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