% Since 2000

12-1-2024
Updated Monthly

Secular Market Top* - Since January 2000

+290.6% Dow       

+491.8% Transports 

+280.8% Utilities

+310.6%  S&P 500

+372.3%  Nasdaq

+ 32.7%  30yr Treasury Bond

+817.5% Gold

+164.5% Oil
  +78.8% Swiss Franc 

    

From High to Low - Since Year 2000

+ 817.5% Gold

+ 491.8% Transports

+ 372.3% Nasdaq

+ 310.6% S&P 500

+ 280.8% Utilities
+ 290.6% Dow
+ 164.5% Oil

+   78.8% Swiss Franc

+   32.7% 30yr Treasury Bonds

December 1999 Shiller PE10 was 44.19               
August 2000 S&P 500 dividend yield was 1.11%  

Shiller PE10  12-1-24 is 38.54  124% above its mean (17.17) since 1871.

S&P 500 dividend yield 12-1-24 is 1.21%  71% below its mean (4.24%) since 1871.

[Shiller PE10 & dividend yield is reported using data from the beginning or end of the month when I update.  It may or may not exactly be the first or last trading day of the month.]

12-1-24

S&P 500 Stock-earnings yield 2.59%

Bond rate 5.13%

Stock-earnings yield/bond yield = 50% of  present bond yield.

Dividend yield/bond yield = 24% of the present bond yield.

*Measured by valuations.  Year 2000 Shiller PE peaked at 44.19 with a scant S&P 500 dividend yield at 1.11%.  These high Shiller PE or low dividend yield has not been surpassed since 1871.

Stock-earnings yield (December 1999) was 2.26%.  High grade corporate bonds were in the 7% range in abundance.  This would push my EYC ratio - [see Ben Graham's Corner] - at 0.36!  Anything below 0.50 is in crash alert range.    

***************************

It is easily seen in the year 2000 the Nasdaq was horribly overvalued and gold was on the give away table, such lopsided returns 20+ years later!