Sunday, November 3, 2024

 Vitamin D

Hoax!

New Guidelines for Vitamin D
Pam Popper, President
Wellness Forum Health


In 2011, the Endocrine Society was one of the first organizations to endorse the vitamin D Hoax, which was invented by Michael Holick. He co-authored the Society’s Clinical Practice Guidelines, declaring no conflicts of interest in the article reporting these guidelines,[1] even though his book, The Vitamin D Solution, had been published just a few months prior, and he had worked as a consultant to Quest Diagnostics, which offers vitamin D tests, since 1979. In an interview, he said that industry funding "doesn’t influence me in terms of talking about the benefits of vitamin D."[2] Right, of course.

Holick’s conflicts were not limited to books and his relationship with Quest Labs. Between 2013 and 2017, he received money from drugmaker Sanofi-Aventis,[3] which makes vitamin D supplements.[4]

Endocrine Society Guidelines are important. They are used by hospitals, physicians, and commercial labs including Quest. Due to Holick’s influence, the Society adopted Holick’s view that vitamin D deficiency was widespread in all age groups, and therefore widespread testing should be implemented. The Society also increased the target goal from 20 ng/mm to 30 ng/ml, which served to label almost 80% of the American population as vitamin D deficient. By 2016, vitamin D testing was the fifth most common lab test that qualified for Medicare reimbursement.[5] And the goal for supplementation continued to increase, with some associations and doctors setting target plasma levels at 75-100 ng/ml. This resulted in the recommendation of higher and higher doses of vitamin D.

It did not take long for health professionals who are critical thinkers to determine that there was no widespread Vitamin D deficiency, that the tests were inaccurate, and that supplementation was not only useless, but sometimes harmful. In 2015, the US Preventive Services Task Force reported that there wasn’t enough evidence to recommend routine vitamin D screening. A 2015 article in the American Journal of Medicine stated that raising plasma levels of vitamin D to 50 ng/ml could increase the risk of death.[6]

For the last 12 years, I’ve covered the vitamin D issue, writing articles and creating workshops to educate people about the hoax. 

Vitamin D is NOT a vitamin; 
it’s a hormone. 

The medical definition of a vitamin is a substance that the body does not produce and must be consumed in food. Vitamin D is at best useless, and in higher doses can be harmful. Lower vitamin D levels are usually a result, not the cause of health conditions, which is why hundreds of studies showed that supplementation has no effect on the prevention of or recovery from any disease.

Finally, the Endocrine Society has partially corrected its error and now advises against routine screening and supplementation for most people. Holick was not an author of these guidelines, which include these statements:
"Based on the absence of supportive clinical trial evidence, the panel suggests against routine 25(OH)D testing in the absence of established indications."
"Further research is needed to determine optimal 25(OH)D levels for specific health benefits."[7]

Additionally, the Endocrine Society no longer endorses specific definitions of vitamin D sufficiency, insufficiency, and deficiency.

The response from many disciples of the vitamin D cult is typical: They are digging in their heels. Evidence does not matter, and the demonstration of ignorance is astounding. Peter Osborne, a diplomate with the American Clinical Board of Nutrition says, "I disagree with the guidelines. Vitamin D is an essential nutrient that plays a pivotal role in multiple functions in the body. It is one of the most common deficiencies we see in the clinic."[8]

The problem is that vitamin D is NOT a nutrient – it’s a hormone produced by the body in response to sunlight. Osborne starts with an incorrect foundation for his statements. Additionally, the only way to diagnose "deficiency" is to use inaccurate tests and guidelines set by the Endocrine Society, which is why the Society changed its recommendations.

The Vitamin D Hoax shows how easy it is for one conflicted doctor to create a multi-billion-dollar industry with almost no evidence in support. It was easy to get medical societies to go along, and almost all branches of medicine readily jumped on board. Now, it’s almost impossible to get advocates to give it up. 

The scariest part of this is that the Vitamin D Hoax is not an isolated event. This happens regularly in medicine. 

Consumers MUST learn to take control of their healthcare by becoming INFORMED.  


[1] Holick MF, Binkley NC, Bischoff-Ferrari HA et al. "Evaluation, Treatment, and Prevention of Vitamin D Deficienecy: an Endocrine Society Clinical Practice Guideline." J Clin Endocrin Metab 2011 Jul;96(7):1911-1930

[2] Liz Sabo. The Man Who Sold America On Vitamin D – and Profited In The Process. KFF News August 20 2018 https://kffhealthnews.org/news/how-michael-holick-sold-america-on-vitamin-d-and-profited/




[6] Taylor CL, Thomas PR, Aloia JF, Millard PS, Rosen CJ. "Questions About Vitamin D for Primary Care Practice: Input From an NIH Conference." Am J Med 2015 Nov;128(11):1167-1170

[7] DeMay, MB, Pittas AG, Bikle DD et al. "Vitamin D for the Prevention of Disease: An Endocrine Society Clinical Practice Guideline." J Clin Endocrin Met 2024 Aug;109(8):1907-1947

[8] Sina McCullough. Vitamin D Dilemma: New Guidelines Flip the Script on Sunshine Supplements. Epoch Times Sep 9 2024 https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/vitamin-d-dilemma-new-guidelines-flip-the-script-on-sunshine-supplements-5678747

Friday, November 1, 2024

Monthly Update: Gold stand out value; Lt. Term bonds trading near their mean; Stocks remain in the valuation dog house!

 

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 11/1/24

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
34% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
42% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **
 24% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]
** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  


Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.
"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:
Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]
Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........36.30
Bond Rate...5.10%
EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

2.00+ Stocks on the give-away-table!

1.75+ Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30+ Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

0.50 or less:  Stock Market Crash Alert!  
Purchase 30 year Treasury Bonds! 

Current EYC Ratio: 0.59(rounded)
As of  11-1-24
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com
DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.
Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.
Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham


%
Stocks & Bonds
Allocation Formula
11-1-24
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]
Formula's answer determines bond allocation.


% Stock Allocation     0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation  100% (rounded) 

Logic behind this approach:
--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 
--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  
Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.        
  
DYI

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The Formula.