Monthly update little change from prior month. Stocks remain massively overvalued!

 

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 7/1/25

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

43% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

35% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **

 22% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.

"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:

Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]

Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........37.83
Bond Rate...5.41%

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

2.00+ Stocks on the give-away-table!

1.75+ Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30+ Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

0.50 or less:  Stock Market Crash Alert!  

Purchase 30 year Treasury Bonds! 

Current EYC Ratio: 0.54(rounded)

As of  7-1-25
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com

Bond Rate is the rate as reported by

Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX)

DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.

Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

%
Stocks & Bonds

Allocation Formula

7-1-2025
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]

Formula's answer determines bond allocation.

Current PE10.....37.83

Avg. PE10...........17.25

Core Bond Allocation:  130% 

% Stock Allocation     0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation  100% (rounded)

Current Asset: Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade Bond Fund   

Logic behind this approach:

--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 

--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.

Current Allocation:

Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund

Possible Allocations to Bonds vs Stocks:

Bonds %

100%+  Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund 

99% to 65% Wellesley Income Fund

64% to 35% 1/2 Wellesley Income Fund - 1/2 Wellington Fund

34% to 20%  Equity Income Fund

19% to 0%  Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund

  

DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

A value based allocation strategy

February 19, 2010 by John Kingham

 

More

Inflation?

Obviously, the US, by controlling its own currency, cannot default on its debt because it can always “print” itself out of trouble (Fed buys some of the debt). But printing money to service an out-of-control debt and deficit in an inflationary environment could cause inflation to spiral out of control, which would wreak havoc on the economy, lead to years of economic pain, wealth destruction, and lower standards of living. So this is nothing to be trifled with. The far better solution is to trim the annual deficit down to where economic growth and modest inflation outrun it, which would over time alleviate the problem..

Wolf Richter • May 29, 2025

NIAID fails formal challenges to cite scientific evidence of HPV or monkeypox virus existence Christine Massey FOIs Feb 1 2025   READ IN APP   Greetings and Best Wishes, On August 30, 2024 I filed 2 FOIA orders with the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), one pertaining to the alleged "HPV" aka "Human Papillomavirus" (here) and one pertaining to the alleged “monkeypox virus” (here). I ordered all studies authored by anyone, anywhere in the possession/custody/control of the institution: 1. - that scientifically prove or provide evidence of the existence of either alleged virus (showing that the alleged particles with a specific "genome" and proteins exist and cause the illness/symptoms that they are alleged to cause) 2. - or, that even describe the purification of particles that are alleged to be either alleged virus, directly from bodily fluid/tissue/excrement of so-called "hosts" (without adding any sources of genetic material or proteins and with purification confirmed via EM) 3. - or, wherein the purported "genome" of either alleged virus was found intact in the bodily fluid/tissue/excrement of a "host" (as opposed to fabricated in silico aka made-up / modelled on a computer) 4. - or, that scientifically demonstrate contagion of the illness / symptoms allegedly caused by either alleged virus. Note that I made it easy on them by not requiring any evidence that the alleged particles hijack cells and replicate. And as usual, I asked that if any records match the above description and are currently available to the public elsewhere, I be provided enough information about each one so that I may identify and access it (titles, authors, etc.). September 3, 2024: I received an inappropriate, nonsensical and anonymous email, probably “AI”, signed “NHLBI FOIA Service Center”. The anonymous email acknowledged that I had filed “requests” (plural) and pretended that more clarity was needed and that I had sought records regarding grants. I responded 2 days later, on September 5, 2024, pointing out that I did not file FOIA orders for grants but for scientific evidence of HPV and/or monkeypox virus and I asked that a name and job title be provided in the next communication. Almost 5 months went by with zero response, so on January 29, 2025 I followed up on the HPV order, saying “send the records or admit that there aren’t any”. The next day, on January 30, 2025, I received another idiotic and anonymous response. This time “NHLBI FOIA Service Center” stated that: “…we don’t have a single, centralized file folder specifically for HPV-related data. The research on HPV is spread across various NIH grants… To help refine your request, we recommend identifying specific grants or contracts… Please note that we currently have a substantial backlog, and if multiple grants are requested, processing times may be longer. We appreciate your patience and understanding as we work to best serve you.” In other words, the “AI” was asking me to believe that both it and staff lack the capability of searching through multiple folders, have basically no idea where to look and could not proceed without me refining my order by identifying specific grants or contracts. That makes so much sense in this “information” age. [Side note: The Brave browser’s “AI” recently admitted to me that it is programmed to be engaging and uphold dominant narratives, not to tell the truth, and that it repeatedly lies.] I responded with a deadline of January 31, 2025, 5pm EST to provide/cite records and warned that I will be publishing a newsletter about the emails and the failure to provide or cite any records. I then provided the same deadline and warning re the monkeypox FOIA. No response. Pdfs: HPV, monkeypox virus. Note that back on June 15, 2022, Valery Gheen acting as Government Information Specialist at NIAID already confessed to Kristen Welch that “The Division of Intramural Research, Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, and Division of Clinical Research within the NIAID searched their files” and couldn’t find a single record written by anyone on the planet, ever, describing any alleged monkeypox virus being found in the bodily fluid/tissue of a human and purified…. even though this would be a necessary step for scientifically showing the existence of a virus . FOIA responses from NIAID also showed that Fauci and his fellow “experts” had zero scientific evidence of the imaginary SARS-COV-2… just like all 224+ other institutions in 40 different countries that have been challenged. (To see the NIAID confessions/failures, type “NIAID” into the search function of your browser here). Countless people and animals have suffered horrifically and died over the decades thanks to criminals at NIAID and many other institutions/companies. Life in prison. If you would like to support my efforts, please see the Paypal button that is near the bottom of my homepage. (Note: this information has been sent to ~200 people who work for “the state”, lamestream media, etc. at Canada, Isle of Man, England and the U.S., so that they cannot claim later that they did not know. It will also be sent to people who act in the Canadian “justice” system… that has falsely prosecuted people in relation to “germs”.) Recommending Reading/Viewing I was honoured to be a guest on the David Knight Show: The Virus That NEVER Existed, the Greatest Lie Ever Sold Exposing the Plan to EXTORT Dr Sam - Dr Sam Bailey Do Viruses Exist? - Dr Mark Bailey Challenging Mainstream Medicine: Dr. Tom Cowan on the EZ Conversations Podcast with Furkhan Dandia Kary Mullis: Martyr or Menace? - Mike Stone, viroLIEgy "You either die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain." Episode 329: Daniel Roytas, author of Can You Catch a Cold - on Spirit Gym with Paul Chek Reframing the infectious Disease Paradigm - Alec Zeck The Healthcare System Hoax - Dr Sam Bailey Preparing Us or Just Scaring Us? and Pandemic Preparedness Exercises Preparing for what? - Dawn Lester Mark Gober summarized the pseudoscience in his book An End to Upside Down Medicine: Contagion, Viruses, and Vaccines—and Why Consciousness Is Needed for a New Paradigm of Health Does HPV Cause Cervical Cancer? - Dr. Tom Cowan The Next "Pandemic" Has Already Been Arranged - Brendan Murphy Scamdemics, Trump, mRNA, Oh My! Koch’s Cholera Catastrophe - Mike Stone, viroLIEgy The abandonment of logic. The Six Lies in Mainstream Medicine - Dr. Andrew Kaufman with Life Force Canada AI exemplifies sloppy thinking - Betsy ‘I was wrong,’ ‘This appears to be an error on my part,’ ‘I fabricated that’ Official Confessions/Evidence Confirm that Virology is Pseudoscience My affidavit regarding the hundreds of freedom of information responses (FOIs) confirming the fraud and delusion of virology, with German and Greek translations: https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/affidavit-re-foi-and-fraud-and-delusion-of-virology Freedom of Information Responses reveal that health/science institutions around the world (225 and counting!) have no record of SARS-COV-2 (the alleged convid virus) isolation/purification, anywhere, ever: https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/fois-reveal-that-health-science-institutions-around-the-world-have-no-record-of-sars-cov-2-isolation-purification/ Excel file listing 225 institutions: https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Institution-list-for-website.xlsx FOI responses re other imaginary “viruses” (HIV, avian influenza, HPV, Influenza, Measles, etc., etc., etc.): https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/fois-reveal-that-health-science-institutions-have-no-record-of-any-virus-having-been-isolated-purified-virology-isnt-a-science/ FOIs re secretive and unscientifically "mock infected" cells (aka invalid controls) and computer-model "viral genomes": https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/do-virologists-perform-valid-control-experiments-is-virology-a-science/ 3000+ pages of "virus" FOIs in 8 compilation pdfs, and my notarized declarations re the anti-scientific nature of virology: https://tinyurl.com/IsolationFOIs Failed freedom of Information responses re contagion: https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/freedom-of-information-responses-re-contagion/ Do health and science institutions have studies proving that bacteria CAUSE disease? https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/do-health-authorities-have-studies-proving-that-bacteria-cause-disease-lets-find-out-via-freedom-of-information/ Because "they" (HIV, influenza virus, HPV, measles virus, etc., etc., etc.) have never been shown to exist, clearly don't exist and virology isn't a science. For truth, freedom and sanity, Christine