All
Downside
With ZERO Upside!
A 50% decline the market would remain over valued. A 65% Decline Stocks will only be marginally undervalued!
Formula Based Asset Allocation*** STOCKS *** BONDS *** GOLD *** CASH................................ GeoPolitics/Economics...Removing Theory from Conspiracies
There are
five stages of the squeeze out.
The U.S.
and EU are beginning stage 3.
The U.K
has begun stage 4.
Stage one:
The rich starts to accumulate money and drive asset prices up; out-compete
the working class for resources, and they drive the working class into
debt.
Stage two:
The working class runs out of resources.
They can no longer borrow anymore.
They can no longer spend anymore.
You get an economic depression and a crisis.
That's when the government has to step in.
Stage
three:
Stage three, the government increasingly runs out of resources as well.
The government becomes massively in debt to the rich.
Stage
four:
The government has no choice but to slowly eviscerate the middle class.
Eventually, there is no wealth left other than that held by the rich;
and the physical structure of your society changes such that it only supports
consumption for rich people. At this
point, almost everybody in the country lives in desperate poverty.
Stage
five:
There are no weak hands left to be squeezed out.
The rich own everything, and the only way they can try to grow their
wealth is by sending you to fight in their wars against each other.
Are You Prepared
For Over
a 50% Decline!??
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust
If you’re a passive investor, my intent is not to encourage you to abandon your discipline. What I do believe, however, is that this is an extraordinarily good moment to examine your risk exposures and to take them seriously.
If your notion of passive investing doesn’t allow for a realistic possibility of a market loss well in excess of 50%, or a decade or more in which the S&P 500 lags Treasury bills, you’ve not only decided to be a passive investor, you’ve decided to ignore history. So, whatever your discipline, examine your risk exposures.
J. Paul Getty
"For as long as I can remember, veteran businessmen and investors -
I among them - have been warning about the dangers of irrational stock
speculation and hammering away at the theme that stock certificates are deeds
of ownership and not betting slips.
The professional investor has no choice but to sit by quietly while the
mob has its day, until enthusiasm or panic of the speculators and
non-professionals has been spent. He is not impatient, nor is he even in a very
great hurry, for he is an investor, not a gambler or a speculator. There are no
safeguards that can protect the emotional investor from himself."
Fraudulent Playbook
Medical
Industrial Complex!
Article below just substitute your country of choice and you will see the same fraudulent pattern from the medical establishment and the main stream media outlets!
The New Zealand Medical Council’s (NZMC) relentless pursuit of Dr. Samantha Bailey is a stark reminder of the militant tactics employed by those who seek to maintain the crumbling narrative surrounding COVID-19. The NZMC, in tandem with the pharmaceutical industry and the New Zealand government, have peddled and profited from this fraud, leaving a trail of death, destruction, and devastation in their wake.
The charges brought against Dr. Bailey, including “Covid-19 (Established)” and “Public safety compromised (Established),” are nothing short of farcical. With no evidence of harm caused by her actions, the NZMC has relied on the tainted opinions of government-aligned experts like Helen Petoussis-Harris and Dr. Michelle Balm. Both “experts” simply asserted that public safety could be compromised without providing a single case.
The NZMC’s actions are a clear case of selective enforcement, designed to silence dissenting voices and maintain the illusion of a pandemic. Dr. Bailey’s views on COVID-19 have been portrayed as a risk to public safety, while her books, such as “The Final Pandemic,” which meticulously dismantle the COVID narrative, have been conveniently ignored.
The mainstream media’s (MSM) complicity in this charade is equally appalling. Their silence on Dr. Bailey’s wider publications and the NZMC’s actions raise serious questions about their independence and commitment to truth. Why haven’t government experts refuted the Bailey’s work, particularly Dr. Mark Bailey’s treatise “A Farewell to Virology”? The MSM’s failure to report on this matter is a stark reminder of their role in perpetuating the SARS-CoV-2 myth.
The imposition of unprecedented costs, exceeding $148,000, on Dr. Bailey, for a show trial she did not participate in, is a blatant example of the NZMC’s corruption and collusion with the pharmaceutical industry. This money has lined the pockets of beneficiaries in the legal system, further highlighting the entrenched interests at play.
The New Zealand government’s role in this debacle can not be overstated. Their militant application of the SARS-CoV-2 narrative has led to untold suffering, financial ruin, and loss of life. It is imperative that the government, NZMC, and pharmaceutical industry be held accountable for their actions.
The people of New Zealand deserve answers. They deserve to know the truth about the SARS-CoV-2 myth and the motivations behind NZMC’s actions. It is time for transparency, accountability, and justice.
Furthermore, it is essential to acknowledge that the Wuhan Lab Leak narrative, [the back up story] is merely another means to perpetuate the already discredited virus myth. This narrative shift aims to maintain the illusion of a deadly virus while deflecting attention from the actual culprits behind the pandemic: those who pushed unnecessary lockdowns, mask mandates, and experimental injections. With the MSM peddling this new narrative,
the powers that be seek to salvage their credibility and maintain control over the narrative while continuing to line their pockets with profits from this and future ‘pandemics.’
Recession Led
Housing
Oversupply
Here We
Go Again!
Recession yes; however I don’t see another Great Financial Crises in the
cards. Obviously those who do become
unemployed no talk as to how mild this recession is will never take away their
pain. This is why DYI always advocates
in the most strenuous terms an emergency fund of at least one year. Six months is simply too small and three
months when you find yourself unemployed could easily run out before finding a replacement
job.
3 months checking
3 months High Yielding Saving
6 months Short Term Bond Fund (DYI’s favorite Vanguard)
Fame or Shame
Dollar Cost Averaging
As with all investment methods they have their benefits and
their drawbacks as well. Dollar Cost
Averaging (DCA) is no different despite what you’ve heard believers extolling its virtues. Nonperformance is under achieving a nominal
average annual return of 9.24% (or real 6.96%) since 1871.
Three elements come into play. They are time, dividend yield and price to
earnings multiple. Longer the time you
have will lift your rate of return (or lower) closer to the mean return. Dividend yield is your investment return so
important in compounding returns. Higher
the yield closer you’ll be to the mean.
Price to earning multiple (PE) is the speculative element that all
depends on the animal spirits either driving returns higher or lower.
Today despite this minor dip the current (4-11-2025) dividend
of the S&P 500 is 1.40% significantly below its average (since 1871) of
4.23% along with the Shiller PE at a lofty PE at 33.15!
So…That PE ratio of today is greater than the 1929 top of
27.08. Aggressive animal spirits has the appearance
of normalization since this valuation metric has been above the 1929 level
since 2017! Thus luring in more and more market participants into believing we
have entered a new permanent high plateau.
Nothing is further from the truth as markets will regressive either back
down or back up to their respective mean as the economy can only grow so fast
supporting dividend growth.
Using 1929 as our comparison even though their dividend
(3.67%) and Shiller PE (27.08) is far better than TODAY! So despite this unfairness we’ll use this
time period as our proxy for very possible outcomes for your money 20 years
out.
Here we go!
$1,000 invested 1929 and then $2,000 per month for the next
20 years. Here is our return for our DCA
investor a nominal return of 7.68% and after inflation 3.60%. However our ardent saver doesn’t start with
1k but instead its 10k along with the same $2,000 per month. Results??
Nominal 7.52% and real at 3.53%.
Let’s continue starting with 100k here is the ending numbers. Nominal 6.42% and real return 3.03%
Here is a real possibility our hard charger has his 100k at
1929 levels but says to himself. “I can back off my savings to $1,000 per month
as I saved so much prior.” Drum roll
please. Nominal 5.75% and real at
2.73%. Please note if your 401k funds
charge a 2% expense ratio then all returns is lowered by that amount. In this case a 0.73% a real return that’s retirement
on rice and beans along with helpings of ALPO dog food!
The moral of the story is to avoid investing in stocks when price to earnings are elevated way beyond their historical average. At levels greater than 30 Shiller PE alternative investments such as bonds or even gold/silver is recommended.
Where to find Shiller PE and dividend yield click HERE.
For past historical data click HERE
Soaring
VALUATIONS!
Whether or not we’re at a market peak, we were already defensive based
on extreme valuations, unfavorable internals, and overextended conditions. If
you’re a passive investor, my intent is not to encourage you to abandon your
discipline. What I do believe, however, is that this is an extraordinarily good
moment to examine your risk exposures and to take them seriously.
If your
notion of passive investing doesn’t allow for a realistic possibility of a market
loss well in excess of 50%;
Or a
decade or more in which the S&P 500 lags Treasury bills, you’ve not only
decided to be a passive investor, you’ve decided to ignore History.
So,
whatever your discipline, examine your risk exposures.
John Hussman of the Hussman Funds
Margin of Safety!
When will we ever close this corrupt institution?
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