10-1-2025

Updated Monthly

Secular Market Top* - Since January 2000

+303.6% Dow       

+427.9% Transports 

+294.6% Utilities

+355.2%  S&P 500

+456.9%  Nasdaq

+ 27.0%  30yr Treasury Bond

+1237.4% Gold

+143.6% Oil
  +97.8% Swiss Franc 

    

From High to Low - Since Year 2000

+1237.4%  Gold

+456.9%  NASDAQ

+427.9%  Transports

+355.%  S&P 500

+294.6%  Utilities

+303.6%  Dow

+143.6%  Oil

+97.8%  Swiss Franc’s

+27.0%  30yr Treasury Bonds

December 1999 Shiller PE10 was 44.19               
August 2000 S&P 500 dividend yield was 1.11%  

Shiller PE10 10-1-25 is 40.11  132% above its mean (17.28) since 1871.

S&P 500 dividend yield 10-1-25 is 1.15%  73% below its mean (4.22%) since 1871.

[Shiller PE10 & dividend yield is reported using data from the beginning or end of the month when I update.  It may or may not exactly be the first or last trading day of the month.]

10-1-25

S&P 500 Stock-earnings yield 2.49%

Bond rate 5.21%

Stock-earnings yield/bond yield = 48% of  present bond yield.

Dividend yield/bond yield = 22% of the present bond yield.

*Measured by valuations.  

Year 2000 Shiller PE peaked at 44.19 with a scant S&P 500 dividend yield at 1.11%.  This high Shiller PE and low dividend yield has not been surpassed since 1871.

Stock-earnings yield (December 1999) was 2.26%.  High grade corporate bonds were in the 7% range in abundance.  This would push my EYC ratio - [see Ben Graham's Corner] - to 0.36!  Anything below 0.50 is in crash alert range.    

***************************

It is easily seen in the year 2000 the Nasdaq was horribly overvalued and gold was on the give away table, such lopsided returns 25+ years later!

Very little change from prior month...Stocks remain at MASSIVE nose bleed VALUATIONS!

 

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 10/1/25

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

46% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

32% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **

 22% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines. 

Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.

"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:

Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]

Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........40.11
Bond Rate...5.21%

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

2.00+ Stocks on the give-away-table!

1.75+ Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30+ Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

0.50 or less:  Stock Market Crash Alert!  

Purchase 30 year Treasury Bonds! 

Current EYC Ratio: 0.53(rounded)

As of  10-1-25
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com

Bond Rate is the rate as reported by

Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX)

DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.

Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

%
Stocks & Bonds

Allocation Formula

10-1-2025
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]

Formula's answer determines bond allocation.

Current PE10.....40.11

Avg. PE10...........17.28

Core Bond Allocation:  138% 

% Stock Allocation     0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation  100% (rounded)

Current Asset: Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade Bond Fund   

Logic behind this approach:

--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 

--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.

Current Allocation:

Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund

Possible Allocations to Bonds vs Stocks:

Bonds %

100%+  Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund 

99% to 65% Wellesley Income Fund

64% to 35% 1/2 Wellesley Income Fund - 1/2 Wellington Fund

34% to 20%  Equity Income Fund

19% to 0%  Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund

  

DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

A value based allocation strategy

February 19, 2010 by John Kingham

 

How to Spot

A Strong City HOAX

StrongCitiesNetwork.ORG

Passed into law January 2, 2013

The passage of the Smith-Mundt Modernization Act granted protection to the U.S. Government and enabled the American Government to broadcast propaganda to its own citizens without legal repercussions!

FAKE

Theatrical Productions can include:

“Mass Shootings/Shootings”

“Bombs/Bomb Threats/

“Car/Truck/Bus/Subway/Train/Taxi/Plane/

Parade Attacks”

“Attacks on Police/Manhunts/Protests”

Fire/Arson”

“Knife/Machete Attacks”

“Murders/Murder-Suicides”

How to Spot a ‘Strong Cities’

Theatrical Production

1.)  Immediate police response; arriving at the scene within minutes, frequently with SWAT.  DHS, FBI, ATF, and other agencies appear promptly.  Drills are often conducted in the same timeframe, sometimes on the same day.

2.)  The “Manifesto” – A manifesto is used to craft a psychological narrative for the fake patsy.  It is propaganda designed to highlight problematic ideologies, behaviors and rights that threaten the “Safety of the Public.”

3.)  Calls for Gun Control, background checks, Red Flag laws, biometrics, mental health evaluations and increased surveillance to ensure citizens are “safe.”

4.)  Describing gunfire as “Fireworks/Firecrackers” along with speaking of “assault rifles”, AR-15’s, hate speech/hate crimes, resiliency of community or white supremacy.

5.)  Crises Actors delivering scripted lines, FAKE CRYING, displaying inauthentic emotional responses, DUPING DELIGHT SMILES, and inconsistent/illogical narratives with no visible collaborating evidence.

6.)  GO FUND ME 

(Go Fraud Me) accounts set up, sometimes before the event is reported to have occurred.  “Strong” hashtags are created on social media to circulate the propaganda.  “Strong” slogans are displayed though out the location of the event.  The public is encouraged to donate money and blood.  “Strong” merchandise is sold to “help” the FAKE victims.

7.)  No BLOOD or FAKE BLOOD at the scene also a lack of bullet holes, bullet casings or corresponding damage.

8.)  MEDICAL IMPOSSIBLITIES

“Victims” with artificial wounds (moulage).  Victims speaking of “Shapnel” or bullets still lodged in the body.  Multiple surgeries in an unrealistic amount of time along with no visible scars and no limitation range of motion despite list of massive injuries displaying no authentic pain or trauma.

“Survivors” recovering from massive injuries extremely quick to conduct interviews, promote fundraising, organize political groups, and advocate for gun control.

9.)  A candlelight “Vigil,” or ceremony is typically held immediately after a staged “tragedy.”  The horrific dirge “AMAZING GRACE” is frequently sung at these events, collectivizing those attending and those watching (TV and/or social media) into a propagandized herd.  Also used is sport teams and arenas to increase the sprawl of their psychological operations.

10.)  DISCARDED SHOES

Discarded shoes are often left at the scene and prominently featured on Main Stream Media footage.  This is the calling card of occult mockery.

 

Detailed Analysis of Charlie Kirk 'Shooting' Video Proves the Whole Thing Was a Crock

Anthony Colpo

Sep 18, 2025

Mr E has put together a video focusing on the moments before, during and after Charlie Kirk’s alleged ‘assassination.’ [DYI:  You'll have to go to his SubStack (just click on his name Anthony Colpo)]

If you still think this blatant farce is a bonafide event after watching the video, then there’s clearly no helping you.

The video contains some patently ridiculous anomalies: Kirk’s mouth and nose temporarily disappear, the letter “F” inexplicably disappears from the “Freedom” slogan on his tee, his hairline changes, his pinky ring moves fingers, and the bizarre bouncy movement of his t-shirt is accompanied by what appears to be some sort of tubing around his stomach area (perhaps for a fake blood squib, although it is clear the ‘spurting blood’ has been digitally altered or added in).

It’s heartening to see many can see through this obviously staged event - and disheartening to see so many cannot. I’m still getting the occasional genius who calls me “nutter”, “delusional”, “idiot”, even (yawn) “schizophrenic”. I’m guessing these amateur hour psychoanalysts pulled their psychiatry degrees from a cereal packet, because the one thing they all have in common is a complete inability to explain the growing list of anomalies in this so-called ‘assassination’.

Most don’t even try; they resort straight to name-calling and insults. They are not acting from a platform of reason and logic; they are lashing out emotionally.

As Mr E laments, “it’s amazing that, even in 2025, people still believe the narrative”.

“But remember, the narrative in this case is a trauma-based mind control narrative, 

 people get really emotional about this issue and they do not think critically about it,

 it’s a highly triggering emotional event primarily, and if you look at the mass media coverage, it’s all about the emotion, and that’s the weapon they use against us”.

The frequently unhinged Louisiana Republican Rep Clay Higgins has wasted no time in trying to capitalize on this phenomenon. He promptly got his psycho-tyrant on and declared anyone who "belittled the assassination of Charlie Kirk” (i.e. called BS on the absurd official narrative) should be banned from “ALL PLATFORMS FOREVER”, banned from school, and forbidden to hold a driver’s license.

 

Factoid!

"You must understand, the leading Bolsheviks who took over Russia were not Russians. They hated Russians. They hated Christians. Driven by ethnic hatred they tortured and slaughtered millions of Russians without a shred of remorse. It cannot be overstated. Bolshevism created the greatest human slaughter of all time. The fact that most of the world is ignorant and uncaring about this enormous crime is proof that the global media is in the hands of the perpetrator."

- Alexadr Solzhenitsyn -

The fact that the fake genocide in Gaza has been turned into fake news is more proof of who’s hands the global media is in.

The fact that the global media constantly reminds us of the Holocaust™ is even more proof of who hands the global media is in.

 

Simple Arithmetic

Stocks VS Bonds

The arithmetic is now overwhelming for long term investment grade corporate bonds outperforming stocks over the next 10 to 15 years.  

Even if stocks remain at their nose bleed valuations the dividend yield for the S&P 500 is so tiny at 1.15% - growing at historical 5.4% per year - it would take approximately 16 years and 9 months (or about 201 months) for the dividend investment to catch up to the fixed 5.5% quarterly compounded return. 

This is assuming the principal and growth remain constant and the 1.15% is the starting annual dividend yield and 5.4% is the annual dividend growth rate.  That is exactly where we are today!

DYI

 

Brutal

TRUTH!

 What was NEVER Found

At the Aftermath of 9-11!

 

Bonds

Are they set

to

Outperform Stocks?

What you are witnessing over the past several years (today's date 9-17-2025) is a

Massively overvalued stock market - [S&P 500 index] - with its current dividend yield at a tiny 1.16%. There are two elements in investing. 1.) The speculative element is the price changes all determined by the opinions of the investing public. In other words the price change is held hostage by others. 2.) The investment element is the current dividend yield. Where as we can determine with far greater accuracy your return from compounding along with historical growth rate in dividends. Its not ABB...It is ABBW! Always be buying WHAT?? 1.16% as compared to long term corporate bonds paying around 5.17%. With this huge difference (as long as this huge spread continues) it will take MULTIPLE DECADES of dividend increases to catch up to this static interest rate.

Its Just Simple Arithmetic

 

A Picture

Explaining a Thousand

Tales! 

 

Bear Markets

Last Longer than Most Realize!

 

DYI:  So far core inflation is trending downward since the Federal Reserve has reduced their balance sheet by 2.5 Trillion reducing the overall money stocks thus putting a damper on inflation.  However all is not finished as the Fed’s remain with 6.5 Trillion making inflation very sticky and their pace of reduction has slowed.

Will the Fed’s remain the course of reducing inflation or will they inflate at the first sign of any economic problems?  So far their recent history is to inflate first and ask questions later. 

 During the Next Financial Crises will the Federal Government Prime the Pump with Massive Spending?

If Past History is any Guide the Answer is YES!

DYI’s Expectation? 

MORE INFLATION!

The US, by controlling its own currency, cannot default on debt issued in its own currency because it can always “print” itself out of trouble (Fed buys some of the debt). But in an inflationary environment, printing money to service an out-of-control debt and deficit could cause inflation to spiral out of control, wreak havoc on the economy, and lead to years of wealth destruction and lower standards of living. Everyone knows this.

The far more palatable solution is to trim the annual deficit – including through tariffs – to where economic growth and modest inflation outrun the growth of the deficit, which would gradually over many years alleviate the problem. Whether or not this strategy can be pulled off smoothly remains in doubt.

Wolfstreet

 

COVID Was a Premeditated Hoax

People clearly knew in advance.

Dr. Wojak, M.D. Sep 3 2025 The COVID-19 pandemic was a sham on every level. It was also premeditated, with many signs of foreknowledge long before 2020—including early research, patents, pandemic simulations, predictions, whistleblowers, and more. Here’s the definitive list: 1960s Onward: Patents, Research, and Early Coronavirus Work 1990s Onward: Pandemic Simulations 2010: Rockefeller Foundation’s “Lock Step” Pandemic Scenario 2011: Contagion Foreshadows COVID 2015: Peter Daszak Foresees COVID 2015–2017: Bill Gates Predicts a Deadly Pandemic 2016: “SARS-like” Coronavirus “Poised for Human Emergence” Jan 2017: Fauci Predicts a “Surprise” Pandemic Feb 2017: Nature Article Highlights Wuhan Lab Risks May 2017: MARS Pandemic Simulation Sep 2017: WHO’s Budget Increases Oct 2017: SPARS Pandemic Simulation Feb 2018: WHO Issues Warning About “Disease X” May 2018: Clade X Pandemic Simulation Jan 2019: Training Leaders on Fear Aug 13, 2019: Crimson Contagion Pandemic Simulation Aug 2019: Australia’s Pandemic Playbook Sep 5, 2019: 4chan Whistleblower Sep 12, 2019: Global Vaccination Push Sep 18, 2019: WHO Pandemic Warning Sep 24, 2019: Trump’s Executive Order Oct 18, 2019: Event 201 Pandemic Simulation Oct 18, 2019: Military World Games in Wuhan Oct 29, 2019: Fauci’s Panel Remarks Pre-2020 Google Trends More Examples from Movies, TV, and Media *** 1960s Onward: Patents, Research, and Early Coronavirus Work Patent records stretching back to the 1960s show that the tools for a coronavirus pandemic were already on the shelf long before COVID. By the 1990s, spike-protein vaccines were on record; by the 2000s, labs in the U.S. and Wuhan were supposedly cloning and modifying coronaviruses. Yet during COVID, it was branded “novel”. 1990s Onward: Pandemic Simulations Since the 1990s, governments and health agencies have regularly run pandemic simulations with top-level participants—including senior government and military leaders, intelligence directors, public health heads, and prominent journalists. These exercises effectively rehearsed and sanctioned authoritarian tactics—things like mass lockdowns, enforced masking, coercive vaccinations, censorship, and surveillance—years before COVID, shaping the playbook that would later be implemented worldwide. Here are some of the earlier examples of pandemic simulations that laid the groundwork: 1999 – Johns Hopkins Smallpox Exercise: First large-scale simulation of a smallpox outbreak in the U.S. 2000 – Johns Hopkins Plague Exercise: Plague scenario tests coordination and emergency response. 2001 – Dark Winter: Smallpox exercise exposing U.S. vulnerability and civil liberty constraints. 2003 – Global Mercury: International simulation of a deadly viral outbreak. 2003-2005 – Atlantic Storm: Joint US and European exercise on bioterrorist attacks and mass casualties. 2005 – SCL Simulation: UK exercise preparing for pandemic influenza. 2010: Rockefeller Foundation’s “Lock Step” Pandemic Scenario Ten years before COVID, The Rockefeller Foundation published Scenarios for the Future of Technology. One of the scenarios, called “Lock Step”, described a pandemic that leads to: Authoritarian leadership Quarantines for all citizens Mandatory face masks and temperature checks 2011: Contagion Foreshadows COVID The 2011 Hollywood film Contagion mirrored the events of COVID almost point-for-point: Coronavirus from bats, in Asia, spreading through wet markets Viral videos alerting the West CDC & WHO leading while locals are sidelined and depicted as idiots Independent media dismissed as “dangerous” “Social distancing" and vaccine passports rolled out Many other films and TV shows contain striking parallels to COVID. I’ve included lots more examples at the end of this article. 2015: Peter Daszak Foresees COVID Five years before COVID, Peter Daszak, head of EcoHealth Alliance (which funneled U.S. government funds to the Wuhan Institute of Virology), admitted that media-driven hype would be key to pushing a future pan-coronavirus vaccine: “The economics follow the hype… investors will respond if they see profit.” 2015–2017: Bill Gates Predicts a Deadly Pandemic Bill Gates had been “predicting” a highly infectious virus may kill over 10 million people, years before COVID. That projection nearly matched exactly the official COVID death toll—even though most excess deaths came from lockdowns, hospital protocols, and vaccines, not a virus. 2016: “SARS-like” Coronavirus “Poised for Human Emergence” Four years before COVID, researchers identified WIV1-CoV (“Wuhan Institute of Virology virus 1”) as “poised for human emergence”. January 2017: Fauci Predicts a “Surprise” Pandemic Three years before COVID, Anthony Fauci confidently stated that there would be a “surprise outbreak” under the new Trump administration. “Surprise”—for who? February 2017: Nature Article Highlights Wuhan Lab Risks An article in Nature highlighted the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s risky bat coronavirus research three years before COVID. May 2017: MARS Pandemic Drill During the G20 Health Ministers’ meeting in Berlin, WHO and G20 officials staged a tabletop exercise on a novel respiratory pathogen called MARS (“Mountain Associated Respiratory Syndrome”). The scenario envisioned a fast-spreading, deadly outbreak and stressed global coordination, information control, and compliance. September 2017: WHO’s Budget Increases The World Health Organization conveniently boosted its budget for “outbreak and crisis response” in the years leading up to COVID.