Taking Aim at Russia’s ‘Underbelly’

March 9, 2016

Two hundred years after the “Great Game” for domination of Central Asia began with the Russo-Persian Treaty of 1813, Washington is maneuvering to increase its military presence on Russia’s underbelly, this time through a “counter terrorism partnership” with Tajikistan and its neighbors.

Last month, the Pentagon announced plans for $50 million in new military aid to Central Asia — with a focus on Tajikistan — to “counter the Taliban, ISIL [an acronym for Islamic State], and other regionally-based terrorist groups, and to promote stability in the region.” The aid will also help the U.S. military get its feet in the door by enabling “interoperability and collaboration” with local partner armed forces.

DYI Comments:  Since the end of WWII it was containment and collapse of the Soviet Union, then expansion of NATO and other agreements within Russia's sphere of influence. This will force the Russian hierarchy to expend Rubles on land based armies and air forces, sapping her fragile economy and leaving the oceans to the U.S./U.K. alliance.

Our State Departments goal from day one of the resolution of WWII is the breakup of Russia and eliminating her as a world competitor.  Also, Napoleon, Bismark, and Hitler they all desired the exploitation of Russia's natural resources.  The U.S./U.K./NATO/EU alliance desires the same.  Will the alliance be successful?  Most likely yes.  The biggest reason is that Russia's problems are immense.  The biggest is her faltering Fertility Rate(replacement is 2.1).

Country	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Russia	1.25	1.27	1.3	1.33	1.26	1.27	1.28	1.39	1.4	1.41	1.41	1.42	1.61	1.61	1.61

Number two is a high mortality rate especially among men.
 

Vodka blamed for high death rates in Russia

Study co-author Prof Sir Richard Peto, from the University of Oxford, said: "Russian death rates have fluctuated wildly over the last 30 years as alcohol restrictions and social stability varied under Presidents Gorbachev, Yeltsin, and Putin, and the main thing driving these wild fluctuations in death was vodka."

Currently today Russia's mortality for Russian men has moved down into the mid to high(best estimates) 50's.  Don't be surprised as the economy of Russia continues to contract due to low oil/gas prices mortality rates for both men and women will decline.

Russia's population density has shifted since the fall of the Soviet Union as travel restrictions have been lifted.  Many have simply moved near her three principal cities of St. Petersburg, Moscow, and Volgograd or have gravitated to more southern areas as the climate being more conducive in improving living standards. 

Current population 143.5 million that has peaked in 1990 and has continued to decline slowly.

Russia is vastly underpopulated making it extremely difficult to protect their borders.  Boots on the ground require young men.  Industry and the development of natural resources need young men as well setting up a conflict between guns and Rubles(economy).  Hence the alliance goal of pressuring Russia into spending more and money for domestic protection further sapping their economy and forcing migration from east of the Urals to the west. Those remaining Russia political subdivisions over time will have less loyalty and be open to the idea to break away or at least greater independence from Moscow.  These new entities will need technical support to develop their natural resources which the alliance of U.S./U.K/NATO/EU will gladly support.

The Pivot to Asia

There are two ways to pivot to Asia by sea and by land.  The U.S. State Department is in the process of doing both.  If the alliance can gain control of the oil/gas east of the Ural Mountains then we would be in the same position as Russia is with gas to Europe.  Having the ability to reduce or curtail oil and gas deliveries to China puts a brake on their economy controlled by the alliance.  This is why the Chinese are moving ahead with the development of the New Silk Road.  To bring Russia int the sphere of influence of China.

The Game is afoot and all the Players know it!

It is simply a question of who gets there first and with the most.  Russia time has past as a world power and is in significant decline.  Unless there is a magical turn around to inspire their citizens to have more babies and significant reduction in vodka consumption.  Those where only the top two of their problems as corruption is massive, a depleted health care system with wide spread TB out breaks, drug abuse and an undeveloped (ignored) entrepreneur class.  In a word their society has no HOPE!  No hope equals despair and despair is a breeding ground for alcoholism and drug addiction.

Putin has blown it!  His concentration should have been on stamping out corruption, infrastructure development and repair[roads, trains, airports, hospitals education, resource development, selected industrial etc.] providing for a positive environment for entrepreneurs to flourish.  In a single word provide his people with HOPE.  So far Putin and his cronies have become by default the alliance greatest partner in the demise of Russia.  If you think the U.S. has problems it is NOTHING compared to Russia.

DYI