Net Energy Depletion

Demographic Doom? The Number Of Children Per Household Is Collapsing

Forget debt and deflation: the biggest threat to the global economy and the future of modern civilization as we know it, may be demographics, according to a recent Euromonitor study. 

Whereas over the past decade policymakers have been mostly focused on how to reverse the global infatuation with debt and how to reverse what appears to be a structural decline in inflation (assuming the economist-accepted definition of CPI which conveniently "hedonicaly adjusts" such surging costs as shelter, healthcare, education and in many cases food), an even more troubling trend has been observed in recent years: due to a culmination of factors including falling fertility rates, rising divorce rates and expensive real estate, family sizes across the world are shrinking. 

And unlike in the past where this phenomenon was largely contained to Japan and a handful of developed nations, RBC notes that almost all countries are set to experience a decline in the number of children per household in the 2000 - 2030 period. More specifically, looking from 2015 out to 2030, Euromonitor expects developed markets to have a ~20% decline in the number of children per household and developing markets a ~15% decline. 

In fact, as the Canadian Central Bank points out, 

it was as recently as 2012 when the number of couples without children globally surpassed the number of those with children.

DYI:  World populations are reflecting resource depletion as fossil fuels and strategic minerals become harder to find, more costly and ever increasing amounts of energy to fully extract.  It is my opinion 1998 was the peak of our last game changer oil/gas discovery in Alaska and the North Sea.  1998 was the pinnacle with the completion of wells and the very necessary transport to market systems.  

As of 4/15/2019

$63.22

That was the day [1998] when Exxon was Exxon and Mobil was Mobil merged out of fear they would be required to cut their respective dividends due to extreme low oil and gas prices.  Since then no major discoveries have occurred.  Fracking and horizontal drilling are only extending the life for these finds.  Technology is not an energy source however has does wonders in energy efficiency.  Be as that may be world wide decline in birth rates is a reflection of declining net energy and strategic minerals.

 DYI