11-1-2025
Updated Monthly

Secular Market Top* - Since January 2000

From High to Low - Since Year 2000

+1280.0%  Gold

+483.0%  NASDAQ

+433.7%  Transports

+365.6%  S&P 500

+313.7%  Dow

+292.3%  Utilities

+138.2%  Oil

+95.8%  Swiss Franc’s

+27.9%  30yr Treasury Bonds

December 1999 Shiller PE10 was 44.19               
August 2000 S&P 500 dividend yield was 1.11%  

Shiller PE10 11-1-25 is 40.88  136% above its mean (17.29) since 1871.

S&P 500 dividend yield 11-1-25 is 1.14%  73% below its mean (4.22%) since 1871.

[Shiller PE10 & dividend yield is reported using data from the beginning or end of the month when I update.  It may or may not exactly be the first or last trading day of the month.]

11-1-25

S&P 500 Stock-earnings yield 2.45%

Bond rate 5.08%

Stock-earnings yield/bond yield = 48% of  present bond yield.

Dividend yield/bond yield = 22% of the present bond yield.

*Measured by valuations.  

Year 2000 Shiller PE peaked at 44.19 with a scant S&P 500 dividend yield at 1.11%.  This high Shiller PE and low dividend yield has not been surpassed since 1871.

Stock-earnings yield (December 1999) was 2.26%.  High grade corporate bonds were in the 7% range in abundance.  This would push my EYC ratio - [see Ben Graham's Corner] - to 0.36!  Anything below 0.50 is in crash alert range.    

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It is easily seen in the year 2000 the Nasdaq was horribly overvalued and gold was on the give away table, such lopsided returns 25+ years later!