DYI:  Returns since March 31, 2000 secular high for the U.S. stock market  - comparison to gold and 30 year T-bonds.  Gold has had one heck of a run; however since 2011 is currently in a bear market. 

The Dow Gold Ratio is currently at 17.56 to 1.  DYI's mean is at 16 to 1 Dow/Gold Ratio has gold a bit less expensive in terms of value than the stock market.  Below is a chart for the Dow/Gold Ratio however they place the mean value slightly higher.

Gold is increasing in value not for a recent fall in price it is due to the recent rise in the U.S. stock market.  When I calculate DYI's averaging formula [1st of the month] there will be an increase in allocation to precious metals mining companies.

Bonds as measured by 10 year T-bonds have just recently left yields not seen since the great depression and WWII.  Has the bond rally of a lifetime[Silent, Boomers, Genxer's] ended?  Obviously there is far more upside for increasing rates than for rates to fall.

Stocks have been flying as of late.  However on a valuation basis they are massively overvalued.

As with stocks, bonds, or gold in the short term DYI has no idea which direction markets will go.  What we do know and is far more important to your financial well being is value.  1st world central banks including our own Federal Reserve[it's a private bank and they have no reserves] has committed the economy to a policy of sub atomic low interest rates that has distorted financial markets and the general economy.  

Stocks are flying and only as of late bonds as well.  It appears that Mr. Market is now having his way with the bond despite our central bank.  Eventually Mr. Market will have his way with the U.S. stock market with DYI's estimated collapse of 45% to 60%! That is not a short term call just simply based upon value; bringing the market back to its mean.  That's right just back to its average.  Stock market collapse of 50% would be a run of the mill - nothing to write home about - DECLINE!  WHY??  VALUATIONS are INSANE!

My model portfolio remains defensive due to "jacked up" markets that have driven down dividend and bond yields along with a subdued Dow/Gold Ratio.  DYI are NOT speculators I'll leave that to others.  I'm a hard nosed historically driven value player. Only when valuations improve will I put money at risk - when the compounding is in our favor.  Currently there is little to compound.  Hence I call this time period - THE GREAT WAIT.

 Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 12/1/16

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 60%

84% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

15% -Gold- Precious Metals & Mining - VGPMX

 4% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

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DYI