Generational Dynamics

John J. Xenakis

Russia promises Tajikistan a 'large quantity' of military aircraft

On Monday, defense ministers of Russia and Tajikistan, meeting in Moscow, signed a military aid agreement specifying that Russia would provide a "large quantity" of military aircraft to Tajikistan over the next year. Russia's defense minister Sergey Shoigu said after the meeting:

"Next year the key phase of our military-technical cooperation will begin, the delivery of weaponry and military equipment. In particular, this is a large quantity of aviation equipment, airplanes and helicopters. I think this will be implemented according to plan and on schedule. And, of course, it will contribute to stability in the region."

According to a Tajik source, the deal will include combat aircraft, armored vehicles and communications.

This agreement shows that China will not easily be able to displace Russia in Tajikistan. Russia had a special unit of border guards at the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border between 1992 and 2005 and repeatedly repelled attacks by Taliban forces. Russia has had a military base in Tajikistan for 70 years, and the lease of the military base was extended for another 30 years in a 2012 agreement. The agreement to deliver military aircraft may be an attempt to counter China's growing influence.

According to Russian analyst Andrey Serenko, Russia's military adventures in the Mideast and Ukraine may have left few resources to keep China from expanding its influence:

"There is a danger in this new alliance, along with Pakistan and Afghanistan China is including Tajikistan, which Russia has until recently considered part of its zone of influence. Russia's involvement in Ukraine and the Middle East has resulted in us losing our position in Central Asia. It appears that in this 'Central Asian NATO' under the Chinese umbrella, Russia may be the odd one out."

Tajikistan also shares a long border with Afghanistan. Increasing jihadist activity from the Taliban, the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), and Uighur separatists has raised fears of terrorist activity in Tajikistan, and both China and Russia are concerned.

Furthermore, the jihadist threat from Afghanistan provides a convenient justification for Russia and China to convince Tajikistan to allow their troops on Tajikistan's soil. EurasiaNet and Asia-Plus (Tajikistan)

DYI:  Don't be fooled by all of the touchy feelly talk among diplomats as their job is publicly advocate world peace but through back channels position their countries government and corporations(private or state run) to an advantageous status.  Russia for over 500 years are a competitor to Turkey and China which continues to today and into the future.  Of course Tajikistan will attempt to play both China and Russia with their elites skimming off the top from both countries(two is better than one) while at the same time pumping in military Yen and Rubles raising the standard of living for the Tajikistan populous.

The negative to all of this is the increasing militarization of Central Asia making for a potential powder keg.  The seeds of WWIII are lining up:

Allies:

Christians and Shiites

U.S., U.K., NATO, Russia, India AND IRAN

Axis Powers:

Buddhist and Sunnis

China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey(so much for NATO) UAE and other Sunnis nations.

This list is not totally complete until hostilities begin it will be seen who will attempt to sit it out or who will ally with the Allies or Axis powers.  All vying for some political advantage.  Question such as Australia or South American countries etc.  The list and speculation is of course endless for the smaller countries but the major players over the years are lining up.

The war will be a mixture of conventional, tactical nuclear, and advance particle beam devices.  Also space will be fought over as each side will destroy satellites in an attempt to blind (spy satellites) and degrade communications along with hampering economies dependent upon the internet.  This war could very easily produce upwards of 500 million plus deaths - hopefully saner heads will prevail - human nature as it is states to the contrary - as war is almost a continuous condition.

DYI