Gold

Breaks the 1,000% Barrier!

Since the year 2000 stocks (S&P 500) total return - dividends reinvested - is up 493%.  

Gold since the same time period is up 1,046%! 

The Dow to Gold Ratio is at a mid point at 12 to 1.  The mean is 10 to 1 with a high probability going to 3 to 1 and even possibility of 1 to 1.  At those levels gold will be soaring with stocks across the board with prices (valuations) so low they will be at the give-away-table.   

From High to Low - Since Year 2000

+ 1046.1% Gold

+ 358.1% Transports

+ 328.7% Nasdaq

+ 279.0% S&P 500

+ 264.5% Utilities
+ 253.7% Dow
+ 127.4% Oil

+   90.7% Swiss Franc

+   27.8% 30yr Treasury Bonds

December 1999 Shiller PE10 was 44.19               
August 2000 S&P 500 dividend yield was 1.11%  

Shiller PE10 5-1-25 is 34.47  100% above its mean (17.21) since 1871.

S&P 500 dividend yield 3-1-25 is 1.35%  68% below its mean (4.23%) since 1871.

[Shiller PE10 & dividend yield is reported using data from the beginning or end of the month when I update.  It may or may not exactly be the first or last trading day of the month.]

3-1-25

S&P 500 Stock-earnings yield 2.90%

Bond rate 5.41%

Stock-earnings yield/bond yield = 54% of  present bond yield.

Dividend yield/bond yield = 25% of the present bond yield.

*Measured by valuations.  Year 2000 Shiller PE peaked at 44.19 with a scant S&P 500 dividend yield at 1.11%.  These high Shiller PE or low dividend yield has not been surpassed since 1871.

Stock-earnings yield (December 1999) was 2.26%.  High grade corporate bonds were in the 7% range in abundance.  This would push my EYC ratio - [see Ben Graham's Corner] - at 0.36!  Anything below 0.50 is in crash alert range.    

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It is easily seen in the year 2000 the Nasdaq was horribly overvalued and gold was on the give away table, such lopsided returns 20+ years later!