No matter how you draw the trend line

The bond buying bull market of a lifetime

HAS ENDED!

DYI:  From September 30, 1981 10 year Treasury bonds hit an all time high yield of 15.84%!  The secular bond bulls on a roller coaster ride of lower rates took place ending on August 4, 2020 at 0.52%! (see chart below).

As worldwide Boomer generation continue to move into retirement ending the saving glut rates will continue to move upwards but in a saw tooth manner.  Over the coming year’s new highs (since 8-4-2020) will be made along with subsequent higher lows oscillating from growth to recessions.

Until the Millennial generation moves into their prime savings age – the kids fully grown and out of the house – AND the Boomer’s, to be blunt leave this earthy planet, significantly reducing governmental social spending costs interest rates will begin to decline on a secular basis.

Today expect over time saw tooth higher interest rates, stubborn inflation, along with a declining stock and bond market plus a residential real estate market underperforming inflation.

Smart Money - Buys Aggressively!

Capitulation

Despondency

Max-Pessimism 

Depression 

Hope - Silver F

Relief *Market returns to Mean  - Short Term Notes & Bills or MMF

Smart Money - Buys the Dips!

Optimism - Gold

Media Attention

Enthusiasm

Smart Money - Sells the Rallies!

Thrill

Greed

Delusional

Max-Optimism  Residential Real Estate   - Stocks 

Denial of Problem  

Anxiety 

Fear

Desperation - Long Term Bonds

Current Economic Conditions

Prosperity - Moderate

Recession - Shallow

Deflation - None

Inflation - Moderate

Economic Choices

None

Shallow

Moderate

Prominent

Extreme