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Monday, June 9, 2025

 

Residential Real Estate

Remains in a Bubble

Smart Money - Buys Aggressively!
Capitulation
Despondency

Max-Pessimism 
Depression 
Hope - Silver F
Relief *Market returns to Mean  - Short Term Notes & Bills or MMF

Smart Money - Buys the Dips!
Optimism 
Media Attention - Gold
Enthusiasm

Smart Money - Sells the Rallies!
Thrill
Greed
Delusional
Max-Optimism  Residential Real Estate   - Stocks -BitCoin 
Denial of Problem  
Anxiety 
Fear
Desperation - Long Term Bonds

Current Economic Conditions

Prosperity - Moderate
Recession - Shallow
Deflation - None
Inflation - Moderate

Economic Choices
None
Shallow
Moderate
Prominent
Extreme 





Posted by Dividend Yield Investor at 9:06 AM
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Quotes

Social Security operates on a simple principal: "You give your money to politicians and they squander it on something else!"
Harry Browne
Fail-Safe Investing

"The only way to "Beat an Index" is to invest in a different and significantly greater - undervalued index."
The Dividend Yield Investor

"Men, it has been said, think in herds; it will be seen they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."
Charles Mackay
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

"Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook."
Benjamin Graham
The Intelligent Investor





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Estimated 10yr return on Stocks

Using 5.4% as the historical growth rate of dividends and 4.0% as the ending yield.

Starting Yield*---------return**
1.0%-----------------------(-5.7%)
1.5%-----------------------(-1.7%)
2.0%------------------------1.3%
2.5%------------------------3.8%

3.0%------------------------5.9%
3.5%------------------------7.8%
4.0%------------------------9.4%
4.5%-----------------------10.9%

5.0%-----------------------12.3%
5.5%-----------------------13.6%
6.0%-----------------------14.8%
6.5%-----------------------15.9%

7.0%-----------------------17.0%
7.5%-----------------------18.0%
8.0%-----------------------19.0%

*Starting dividend yield of the S&P500-**10yr estimated average annual rate of return.


These Author's made this blog possible!

  • Straight Talk on Investing by Jack Brennan with Martha McCave
  • The Four Pillars of Investing by William Bernstein
  • Contrarian Investment Strategies by David Dreman
  • Dividends Still Don't Lie by Kelly Wright
  • Bogle on Mutual Funds by John Bogle
  • The Oil Factor by Stephen & Donna Leeb
  • The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham
  • Fail-Safe Investing by Harry Browne

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J. Paul Getty Quotes!

Stock Market - "For as long as I can remember, veteran businessmen and investors - I among them - have been warning about the dangers of irrational stock speculation and hammering away at the theme that stock certificates are deeds of ownership and not betting slips.
The professional investor has no choice but to sit by quietly while the mob has its day, until enthusiasm or panic of the speculators and non-professionals has been spent. He is not impatient, nor is he even in a very great hurry, for he is an investor, not a gambler or a speculator. There are no safeguards that can protect the emotional investor from himself."

Business - The #1 guideline to success is you must be in business for yourself. When you work for someone else, you sell your time at wholesale to your employer, who then re-sells it at retail to the customer."

Employment - "The employer generally gets the employees he deserves."
Technology - "In times of rapid change, experience could be your worst enemy."
Debt - "If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem!"

Corporations - "Going to work for a large company is like getting on a train. Are you going sixty miles an hour or is the train going sixty miles an hour and you're just sitting still?"

Children - "Money isn't everything but it sure keeps you in touch with your children."
Failure - "A man may fail many times but he isn't a failure until he begins to blame somebody else."
Humor - "The meek shall inheirt the Earth, but not its mineral rights!"

Innovation - "The man who comes up with a means for doing or producing almost anything better, faster or more economically has his future and his fortune at his fingertips."
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