Market Performance Since 2009
&
Secular Top of 2000
Current Shiller PE10 25.82
5-1-15
Updated Monthly
Updated Monthly
Secular Market Top - Since January 2000
+ 54.6% Dow
+164.4% Transports
+131.0% Utilities
+40.6% S&P 500
+17.4% Nasdaq
+58.8% 30yr Treasury Bond
+345.6% Gold
+64.6% Swiss Franc's
From High to Low
+345.6% Gold
+164.4% Transports
+131.0% Utilities
+ 79.4% Oil
+ 64.6% Swiss Franc's
+ 64.6% Swiss Franc's
+ 58.8% 30 year Treasury bond
+ 54.6% Dow
+ 40.6% S&P 500
+ 40.6% S&P 500
+ 17.4% Nasdaq
Market Sentiment
It is easily seen that in the year 2000 the Nasdaq was horribly overvalued and gold was on the give away table, such lopsided returns 15 years later!
Also of interest the stodgy 30 year Treasury bond has outperformed the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq since the year 2000. The modern portfolio crowd back in the year 2000 would find this a very low probability outcome. Value player's, due to extreme valuations, would have recognized this as the most likely outcome (close to a no-brainer!).
Long term bonds today are now absurdly over priced due to the Fed's sub atomic low interest rates. That is not to say rates couldn't go lower and become even more over priced anything can happen. What we do know rates(10 yr Treasury as our proxy) as measured by price to interest is 164% above its mean clearly in bubble land.
Stocks are in bubble land as well just simply eye balling the Shiller PE chart above in this post will suffice. Or as measured by price to dividends the current yield of the market is 104% above its average going all the back to 1871.
Gold as measured by the Dow/Gold Ratio is now at it mean and has been in a secular bull market since the early 2000's and has now just completed a cyclical bear market to begin a new bull market both secular and cyclical. So buckle up its going to a bumpy ride but higher prices will prevail(gold) as traditional investments stocks continue their secular decline and bonds begin a secular decline.
Updated Monthly
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