2-1-15
Updated Monthly
Secular Market Top - Since January 2000
+ 43.2% Dow
+132.0% Transports
+115.8% Utilities
+32.1% S&P 500
+13.4% Nasdaq
+57.4% 30yr Treasury Bond
+285.5% Gold
From High to Low
+285.5% Gold
+132.0% Transports
+115.8% Utilities
+ 57.4% 30 Year Treasury
+ 43.2% Dow
+ 32.1% S&P 500
+ 31.3% Oil
+ 31.3% Oil
+ 13.4% Nasdaq
It is easily seen that in the year 2000 the Nasdaq was horribly overvalued and gold was on the give away table, such lopsided returns 15 years later!
Also of interest the stodgy 30 year Treasury bond has outperformed the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq since the year 2000. The modern portfolio crowd back in the year 2000 would find this a very low probability outcome. Value player's, due to extreme valuations, would have recognized this as the most likely outcome (close to a no-brainer!).
It is easily seen that in the year 2000 the Nasdaq was horribly overvalued and gold was on the give away table, such lopsided returns 15 years later!
Also of interest the stodgy 30 year Treasury bond has outperformed the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq since the year 2000. The modern portfolio crowd back in the year 2000 would find this a very low probability outcome. Value player's, due to extreme valuations, would have recognized this as the most likely outcome (close to a no-brainer!).
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