Sunday, September 30, 2018

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 10/1/18

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
55% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
37% -Gold- Precious Metals & Mining - VGPMX
 8% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]

 This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.
This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!
The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.
The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.
Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.
"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:
Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate
1.75 plus: Safe for large lump sums & DCA
1.30 plus: Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

Current EYC Ratio: 0.81 (rounded)
As of  10-01-18
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com
DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.
Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  ..........33.36
Bond Rate...4.09%

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss......If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham
%
Stock & Bonds
Allocation Formula
10-01-18
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 – [100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]


% Stock Allocation     0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation 100% (rounded) 

Logic behind this approach:
--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 
--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  
Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.


DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.        
  
DYI


This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.
This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!
The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.
The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.
Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

A value based allocation strategy

Thursday, September 27, 2018


Recession
?
September 26, 2018

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending and business fixed investment have grown strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance. 
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. 
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent. 
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. 
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.
DYI:  Let’s go through DYI’s recession indicators one by one.  Don’t worry there are only 5 so this will be brief and yet concise as these 5 are broad based macro indicators.
  • Two year Treasury notes invert ten year Treasury bonds:
So far that hasn’t happen yet; however it is close with 2 year notes at 2.83% and 10 year bonds at 3.06% for a small difference of 23 basis points.  Making for a flat yield curve that has extended all the way out to the 30 T bond at 3.19%.  At this juncture no recession but it does turn on our radar.
  • Widening credit spread…Comparing yields between 5 year T – Notes and Vanguard’s High Yield Corporate Bond Fund:
There has been some widening; as the expression goes “Not much to write home about!”  Technically yes, but is miniscule at best with 5 year T – Notes at 2.96% and Vanguard’s High Yield Bond Fund [junk bonds] at 5.58%.  Once the economy is in the very beginning stages of going south there will be a fall off of prices hence yields will begin to soar.  So far not much activity here.
  • Declining stock prices…S&P 500 fifty day moving average below the two hundred day moving average:
So far not even close.  The index itself has not even broken through the 50 day let alone the 200 day.  Declining broad based stock is a zero.
  • Declining Home Builders Index…The indexes fifty day average below its respective two hundred day moving average:
So far the fifty day average remains above the two hundred day average.  However the index itself has now dropped below the 50 day.  Not enough to go on a recession indicator but again it does bring up our recessionary vigilance.
  • Purchasing Manager’s Index below 50:
This index is booming at 61.3 as of August 2018 [reported monthly].  No recession here at all.

Conclusion:

For all purposes only one indicator has gone negative which is widening credit spread.  However it is so small it could very easily be chalked up to statistical noise.  All in all no recession.  Be as that may be, this economy has been growing since March of 2009 making for one very long expansion along with an explosion in private [our citizens], corporate and government debt along with a massively overvalued stock and junk bond market.  When the next downturn does occur it is highly likely to be the nasty variety.
 DYI

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Bubble
News!

Next crash will be ‘worse than the Great Depression’: experts

Ten years ago, it was too-easy credit that brought financial markets to their knees. Today, it could be a global debt of $247 trillion that causes the next crash.
The economic stats:
  • US household debt of $13.3 trillion now exceeds the 2008 peak. That’s due in part to mortgage lending, which is hovering near its decade-ago level of $9 trillion-plus.
  • Student loans outstanding have skyrocketed from $611 billion in 2008 to around $1.5 trillion today.
  • Auto loans, at nearly $1.25 trillion, have exceeded the 2008 total, while credit card balances are just as high now as before the Great Recession.
  • Meanwhile, global debt — a result of central bankers flooding economies with cheap money to lift them out of a funk — is now $247 trillion, up from $177 trillion in 2008. That is close to 2½ times the size of the global economy.
Economic theorists say insurmountable debt is the big kahuna. The huge sums today certainly fed the boom times. But since it must eventually be repaid, the tipping point will come when a wave of defaults by overwhelmed borrowers — potentially squeezed by rising interest rates — leads to a widespread reduction in spending and incomes, economists explain.
 DYI

Monday, September 24, 2018


Many older Americans are living a desperate, nomadic life

In her powerful new book, “Nomadland,” award-winning journalist Jessica Bruder reveals the dark, depressing and sometimes physically painful life of a tribe of men and women in their 50s and 60s who are — as the subtitle says — “surviving America in the twenty-first century.” Not quite homeless, they are “house-less,” living in secondhand RVs, trailers and vans and driving from one location to another to pick up seasonal low-wage jobs, if they can get them, with little or no benefits. 
The “workamper” jobs range from helping harvest sugar beets to flipping burgers at baseball spring training games to Amazon’s AMZN, -0.65%“CamperForce,” seasonal employees who can walk the equivalent of 15 miles a day during Christmas season pulling items off warehouse shelves and then returning to frigid campgrounds at night. Living on less than $1,000 a month, in certain cases, some have no hot showers. As Bruder writes, these are “people who never imagined being nomads.” Many saw their savings wiped out during the Great Recession or were foreclosure victims and, writes Bruder, “felt they’d spent too long losing a rigged game.” Some were laid off from high-paying professional jobs. Few have chosen this life. Few think they can find a way out of it. They’re downwardly mobile older Americans in mobile homes.
I think it has been the pretty bad economic times. We saw in the 1980s a shift from pensions to 401(k)s; that was a raw deal for workers. 
These retirement plans were marketed as an instrument of financial freedom, but they were really transferring risk from the shoulder of the employers to the backs of the workers.
DYI:  The two books in my headline shows clearly this houseless but not homeless society was going to be spawned due to the conversion from old style pensions to 401k type savings plans.  The myth book was written in 1995 and the hoax book in 2002.  Showing very clearly what was going to happen and now is being written about by Jessica Bruder titled Nomadland.
 
I bought years ago the first two books and today as my wife and I head off to the mall to pick up our new glasses I’ll stop by Barnes and Noble to order her book.  Needless to say having the ability – income and emotional – to save money present day and future expenses is an absolute must.  It is not a money game but a flat out war.  If you lose no one gives a damn!
 DYI
Follow the
Money! 


Russian Central Bank Gold Reserves Rise to 1999.95 Tons in August.

Russian gold reserves are the fifth largest in the world.

Russia added 1,000,000 ounces of gold (31.1034768 tons) to reserves in August.

DYI:  Why all of the talk in the CIA controlled main stream press regarding Russia??  Putin and his administration at least financially are firing on all cylinders!  Advocating – [in Russia it’s an order] – his political subdivision to no longer acquire new debt and to systematically payoff existing debts.  Plus their central bank which is out of the control of international banking elites; has embarked upon positive rates [yields higher than inflation] thus inducing Russian corporations and individual citizens to reduce leverage.  They have been successful and to a degree of remaining debt that is minuscule compared to western standards.  Add on a mountain of gold when this world economy arrives at its next global recession/depression Russia will be in the cat bird seat.  That is why all of the talking heads on main stream media attempting to gin up a new cold war in an attempt to side track Putin and company from achieving a super hard currency able to with stand any severe economic shock.
DYI

As we peer into society’s future, we – you and I, and our government – must avoid the impulse to live only for today, plundering for our own ease and convenience the precious resources of tomorrow.  We cannot mortgage the material assets of our grandchildren without risking the loss also of their political and spiritual heritage.  We want democracy to survive for all generations to come, not to become the insolvent phantom of tomorrow.

Dwight D. Eisenhower
U.S. 34th President 1953 to 1961
Allied Supreme Commander Europe WWII

The Rise of Zombie Firms:

 Causes and Consequences

Zombie firms, meaning firms that are unable to cover debt servicing costs from current profits over an extended period, have recently attracted increasing attention in both academic and policy circles. Caballero et al (2008) coined the term in their analysis of the Japanese "lost decade" of the 1990s. More recently, Adalet McGowan et al (2017) have shown that the prevalence of such companies as a share of the total population of non-financial companies (the zombie share) has increased significantly in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) across advanced economies more generally. 
Previous studies have focused on the role of weak banks that roll over loans to non-viable firms rather than writing them off (Storz et al (2017), Schivardi et al (2017)). This keeps zombie companies on life support. A related but less explored factor is the drop in interest rates since the 1980s. The ratcheting-down in the level of interest rates after each cycle has potentially reduced the financial pressure on zombies to restructure or exit (Borio and Hofmann (2017)). Our results indeed suggest that lower rates tend to push up zombie shares, even after accounting for the impact of other factors.
DYI:  Interest rates peaked in September of 1981 as measured by the 10 year Treasury bond at 15.32% continued dropping in a saw tooth manner until July 8, 2016 at 1.37% [currently 3.07%].  Companies that were heavily leveraged with debt at those lofty levels were able to hold off bankruptcy as they were able to refinance as rates subsided.  As rates continued to decline healthy corporations began borrowing more and more money as rates declined they increased their leverage.  The 2009 downturn reduced some of the leverage but as the Fed’s went to a policy of sub atomic low rates soon almost every company was in on the leverage game.  Around 15% of corporate America is a Zombie company; add on those who are in the junk bond arena around 25% in total.  These firms are skating on very thin ice.  Any downturn or even marginal increase in interest rates a cascading effect will occur.  This is the madness that gave us the great depression of the 1930’s.
 DYI

Saturday, September 22, 2018

?

AT&T announces latest cities to get 5G

Raleigh, Charlotte, and Oklahoma City will get the next generation technology this year

AT&T has disclosed the next three markets to receive 5G wireless services, adding Charlotte and Raleigh in North Carolina and Oklahoma City, Okla. 
By the end of 2018, the company said it plans to have 5G service operating in a dozen U.S. markets. It said it is purposely targeting a mix of large and mid-size cities. 
It previously announced Atlanta, Dallas, and Waco, Tex., as the first markets to get the faster network.
DYI:  Below is what Jeffersonian Girl ability to predict the mass shooting/casualty drill will take place.

How could anyone in a million years guess where the next mass shooting would be???? 
UNLESS they were all fabricated, and fabricated for a reason! 
FirstNet and 5G has been the tie to all of these mass shootings.

So, if past history has tied receiving FirstNet/5G spending to that area being hit with a Mass Shooting, then you should be able to predict the next mass shooting event based on who’s receiving large sums of FirstNet/5G money!

Anyone can do what I’m doing to predict these hoaxes! Just go onto any search engine and look for big $$ being laid out for a new area to receive FirstNet funding! Maryland received their big FirstNet spending way back, so it doesn’t surprise me they pulled another one there. However, this Wisconsin spending was brand new, and I knew a hoax would soon be coming. They generally followup these announcements with a shooting hoax 2-4 weeks later. Based on how I’ve predicted Wisconsin, it took them 3 weeks to pull their fake shooting.
 AT&T Invests Nearly $750 Million Over 3-Year Period To Boost Local Networks in Oklahoma
Published: Sept 6, 2018 12:01 a.m. ET
And, since the formation of the FirstNet public-private partnership a little over a year ago, governors from all 50 states, 5 territories and D.C. recognized the value of FirstNet, joining in its mission to strengthen and modernize public safety's communications capabilities.
DYI:  If this is accurate and the timeline holds we should expect another staged faked shooting within a week or two.  5G FirstNet and big money roll out is the criteria.  We will see what we will see!??
 DYI

Friday, September 21, 2018

Everything is Fun & Games
Till Someone Gets Hurt!

Just How Wildly Exuberant is the Junk-Credit Market?

This deal is “reminiscent of the kind of deal I would have seen in 2006 and 2007.” They’re still blowing off the Fed.

This is considered a door-opener Leveraged Buyout (LBO): If it flies and investors buy this $13.5 billion pile of deeply junk-rated debt today, even riskier and bigger LBOs may fly. 
It’s the fourth largest LBO since the Financial Crisis and the ninth largest of all times in the US and Europe: Thomson Reuters Corporation is separating its largest division, the financial information, analysis, and risk businesses, now called “Refinitiv,” to sell a 55% stake to a group of investors led by private equity firm Blackstone Group.
 This being a “leveraged” buyout, the Blackstone consortium is making the target company, Refinitiv, borrow in total $13.5 billion to fund most of its own buyout. This consist of $9.25 billion in “leveraged loans” and $4.25 billion in secured and unsecured bonds. Some pieces are denominated in dollars, others in euros. This debt sale is being completed today. 
The Blackstone Consortium will infuse $3.025 billion in cash equity. Thomson Reuters will retain a 45% stake and will receive a special dividend from Refinitiv of approximately $17 billion, according to Moody’s. And there are some other details involved.
 But none of these fundamentals matter to investors. These institutional investors – such as pension funds, insurance companies, loan funds, etc. – are eager to buy this debt to get some extra yield, no matter what the risks or consequences, because the party must go on.
 “As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance,”
Charles Prince
Ex-Citi Bank CEO
2007
DYI:  Anyone who has a zeal for yield when the music stops and the party is over; the smash will be felt all over the world.  These imbalances are not just here in the States but in every 1st and 2nd world countries.  We will have a worldwide recession.  The question of course is when?  I don’t know nor does anyone else for that matter. 

I have to admit I thought we would have been in the downturn at least two years ago but here we are and the music is still playing and everyone is still present and dancing.  But when the music stops just like the game of musical chairs instead of just one chair taken out at a time multiple chairs will disappear and will repeat until a bottom is put in.  How long will this take??  Just as with the question of when how long no one knows!  Will it be a 1929 to 1932 smash or the long drawn out Japanese 1990 to 2009 experience?  Don’t know.  What we do know is value and as that improves DYI’s model portfolio will increase step by step with those improvements.  The Great Wait Continues!
  DYI

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Rolling the Dice!
One of the most perverse consequences of the central banks "saving the world" (i.e. saving banks and the super-wealthy) is the destruction of low-risk investments: we're all speculators now, whether we know it or acknowledge it. 
The problem is very few of us have the expertise and experience to be successful speculators, i.e. successfully manage treacherously high-risk markets. Here's the choice facing money managers of pension funds and individuals alike: either invest in a safe low-risk asset such as Treasury bonds and lose money every year, as the yield doesn't even match inflation, or accept the extraordinarily high risks of boom-bust bubble assets such as junk bonds, stocks, real estate, etc. 

Record global debt: What it means for the next crisis

In 2016, global debt hit a record 225 percent of world wealth, according to the IMF’s Global Debt Database, which tracks 190 countries from 1950 to the present day. That figure measures debt taken on by companies, governments, you and me. 
Debt is a double-edged sword. It’s fueling global growth at a time of stagnant wages. But as the 2008 financial crisis illustrated so painfully, when a bubble does eventually burst, the losses ripple far and wide and we just don’t know enough about how all that global debt is linked.
DYI:  High debt levels and insane asset prices is a prescription for disaster.  When??? That of course is the all-encompassing question that unfortunately no one knows!  Will it be the huge melt down like 1929 to 1932 or will we go Japanese from 1990 to 2009 with a 20 year bear market?  Who knows?  What we do know future returns will be dismal at best and worst there will be losses even with holding for the next 10 to 15 years. 
The hackneyed old stories about the threat of Russian “meddling” in the elections of other countries have gone stale. Since no real evidence has ever been presented, they don’t attract much public attention anymore. It is generally believed that poor Europe is not ready to stop Russia, but it should be, as the European parliamentary election scheduled for May 2019 is drawing closer. Warnings have been issued, alarm bells sounded, and recommendations presented by think tanks. Former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen warned about the “Russia threat” as far back as last March. As there was nothing to substantiate his statement, one can only assume that the former official has been endowed with the gift of clairvoyance. 
No, the EU leadership is not dismayed enough to raise a hue and cry over the scandalous remarks made by US Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell. It sees no need to do anything about it. In June, the ambassador did not shy away from openly promising to use his office to help far-right nationalists inspired by Donald Trump take power across Europe! In an interview with Breitbart News, Richard Grenell said he was “excited” by the rise of far-right parties on the continent and wanted “to empower other conservatives throughout Europe, other leaders.” Those were his literal words! 
If that’s not interference, then what is? But no, no warning has been issued about the danger of US meddling in Europe’s May elections. Just imagine what would happen if a Russian ambassador to an EU country publicly said such a thing! Mr. Grenell did not see anything wrong with praising the Austrian government coalition, which includes the Freedom Party that was formed in the 1950s by a former Nazi officer. He actually lectured the Germans about what their government should look like. It seems like times have changed and intervening in European politics on behalf of far-right leaders has become the norm, at least for the ambassadors of the United States.
DYI:  The U.S. has meddled in elections all over the world and it continues to this day.  To say we are the good guys pushing for democracy the world over has unfortunately become a very sick joke!  Once the CIA was formed in 1947 it was off to the races for controlling more and more countries.  The CIA interferes in domestic elections as well.  If you want your country back to Constitutional constraints we can begin by doing away with the CIA/FBI along with cutting in half all military spending.  That would be a great start.
DYI

Thursday, September 13, 2018

Stocks – Bonds – Gold

Financial Times explains why it can't report gold price rigging

It is time to admit that I once deliberately withheld important information from readers. It was 10 years ago, the financial crisis was at its worst, and I think I did the right thing. But a decade on from the 2008 crisis (our front pages from the period are at ft.com/financialcrisis), I need to discuss it. 
The moment came on September 17, two days after Lehman declared bankruptcy. That Wednesday was -- for me -- the scariest day of the crisis, when world finance came closest to all-out collapse. But I did not write as much in the Financial Times. 
Was this the right call? I think so. All our competitors also shunned any photos of Manhattan bank branches. The right to free speech does not give us right to shout fire in a crowded cinema; there was the risk of a fire, and we might have lit the spark by shouting about it. 
Ten years on, US banks are virtually the only players in the financial world plainly more secure than they were before. They have delivered and built up capital, and the risk of a sudden collapse is now far more distant. 
The problem now is that disposing of that risk has obstructed the task of reducing other risks. Now, risks lie in bloated asset prices, levered investments, and pension funds that hold them. 
The next crisis will not be about banking, but the insidious danger that pension funds deflate, leaving a generation without enough money to retire.
DYI:  Despite the title the article makes zero reference to any gold price manipulation.  However, the reason I have posted this article is that he spot on for old fashion pension funds or 401k holders alike.  A severe stock market meltdown that I’m anticipating to the likes of 60% to 75% along with junk bonds being clipped at a minimum of 50% would put current and soon to be retirees in jeopardy.  If you think older folks are remaining in the work force now; when this crises hits older workers will not leave [at least voluntarily] their employment unless they are infirmed or dead!

Pension funds and 401k type of investor have been purchasing overinflated stocks since 2012 starting at one standard deviation above the mean.  That level seems mundane by today’s standard but just look at the above chart and you will see at that level was the beginning of severe market declines [1907 – 1937 – 1966 – 2008 (1.5 SD)].  Instead of scaling down  stock ownership as valuation continued to leap upwards money managers and individual market participants have continued to pile on with ever increasing valuations!
Benjamin Graham
Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. 
This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss......If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety. 
The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....
Once valuation come back down to earth market losses for large portions for pensions [typically State and local employees] and 401k type investors will be felt for years.  States or local plans will have to “jack up” taxes to fully fund their plans will meet fierce opposition from taxpayers.  Most likely a compromise of some tax increases will occur along with a reduction of benefits.  Neither will be mundane even with the compromise; the tax boost will be no small deal nor will the drop in benefits.  Both groups will experience much pain along with lasting anger and non stop finger pointing blame game!

For those with 401k type of programs they along with State and local government employees will continue working and saving in a Hail Mary attempt to carve out some sort of retirement plus waiting till age 70 for full Social Security benefits along with continued full or part time work.    
Older Cohort Table

Bonds to the Rescue?  
10-year Yield (Log Scale)

With ultra low bonds yields is no panacea for debt investors as future returns will be sub par and highly likely below the rate of inflation.
 Gold
 Image result for dow gold ratio chart pictures  Gold is one of the bright spots.  This old fashioned investment as measured by the Dow/Gold Ratio as of 9/13/18 is 21 to 1 (rounded).  Gold is trading at its average and below average for the mining companies due its brutal bear market.  DYI’s model portfolio reflects these valuation changes.
 Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 9/1/18

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
60% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
35% -Gold- Precious Metals & Mining - VGPMX
 5% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]
DYI

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Image result for the big lie pictures
Inside Job! 
Bush And Cheney: How They Ruined America And The World (Northampton, MA: Interlink Publishing, 2016) is Griffin’s latest, and probably last, effort to reach those people who, out of fear, ignorance, or laziness, have walled themselves into a cyclopean labyrinth of denial about the defining event of our time. Without the clarifying truth about the attacks of September 11, 2001, there will be no exit from the continuing nightmare the world is experiencing.

US Government Lies: 
Subsequent to the 9/11 Attacks:
  • That the 9/11 attacks were surprises, a “New Pearl Harbor.”
  • That there was solid evidence for bin Laden’s guilt.
  • That the invasion of Afghanistan (and Pakistan) was therefore justified.
  • That the “war on terror” and therefore The Patriot Act were necessary.
  • That Saddam Hussein was connected to 9/11, was developing nuclear weapons, and had weapons of mass destruction.
  • That the attacks on Muslim countries were not based on Islamophobia.
  • That the chaos and destruction unleashed throughout the Middle East were not pre-planned and intentional.
  • That the Obama administration’s attack on Libya was a humanitarian response to the “madman” Gaddafi, who adopted a rape policy fueled by Viagra drugged troops ready to unleash a blood bath.
  • That the war against Syria was not a CIA-instigated plan to overthrow Assad under the guise of “liberating” the Syrian people.
  • That the jihadists in Syria, including ISIS, were not armed and supported by the US, with many of those arms being shipped out of Benghazi, Libya, under the direction of Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, General David Petraeus, and Chris Stevens, the US ambassador to Libya.
  • That the Syrian “White Helmets” are independent volunteer do-gooders, not a propaganda outfit funded by the US and UK governments.
  • That the wars against Muslim countries throughout the Greater Middle East are not connected to the Israeli occupation of Palestine and serve as American support for Israel’s agenda in the region.
  • That drone killings are legal and morally justified.
  • That the US Constitution has not been shredded.
  • That the coup d’état in Ukraine was not a US operation as part of a continuing US aggression toward Russia and a growing threat of a nuclear annihilation.
  • That the US buildup of military forces along Russia’s western borders and the massive transfer of US Naval forces to China’s east are not US acts of aggression making nuclear war more likely, but are acts of self-defense.
  • That the threat of ecological holocaust is not connected to a 770 billion dollar “defense” budgeta trillion dollar nuclear weapons modernization program, and US wars against countries containing vast amounts of fossil fuels and rare minerals.
That is only a sample of the lies that Griffin uses to lead the reader back to 9/11, the alleged reason for the death and destruction justified by such lies. If the US government would lie in all these ways, he is saying, why would they not have lied with the Big Lie that started this string of destructive deceptions?

Here is a Summation of Griffin’s 
15 Major Miracles:
  1. The Twin Towers and WTC 7 were the only steel-framed high-rise buildings ever to come down without explosives or incendiaries.
  2. The Twin Towers, each of which had 287 steel columns, were brought down solely by a combination of airplane strikes and jet-fuel fires.
  3. WTC 7 was not even hit by a plane, so it was the first steel-framed high-rise to be brought down solely by ordinary building fires.
  4. These World Trade Center buildings also came down in free fall—the Twin Towers in virtual free fall, WTC 7 in absolute free fall—for over two seconds.
  5. Although the collapses of the of the WTC buildings were not aided by explosives, the collapses imitated the kinds of implosions that can be induced only by demolition companies.
  6. In the case of WTC 7, the structure came down symmetrically (straight down, with an almost perfectly horizontal roofline), which meant that all 82 of the steel support columns had to fall simultaneously, although the building’s fires had a very asymmetrical pattern.
  7. The South Tower’s upper 30-floor block changed its angular momentum in midair.
  8. This 30 floor block then disintegrated in midair.
  9. With regard to the North Tower, some of its steel columns were ejected out horizontally for at least 500 feet.
  10. The fires in the debris from the WTC buildings could not be extinguished for many months.
  11. Although the WTC fires, based on ordinary building fires, could not have produced temperatures above 1,800°F, the fires inexplicably melted metals with much higher melting points, such as iron (2,800°F) and even molybdenum (4,753°F).
  12. Some of the steel in the debris had been sulfidized, resulting in Swiss-cheese-appearing steel, even though ordinary building fires could not have resulted in the sulfidation.
  13. As a passenger on AA Flight 77, Barbara Olson called her husband, telling him about hijackers on her plane, even though this plane had no onboard phones and its altitude was too high for a cell phone call to get through.
  14. Hijacker pilot Hani Hanjour could not possibly have flown the trajectory of AA 77 to strike Wedge 1 of the Pentagon, and yet he did.
  15. Besides going through an unbelievable personal transformation, ringleader Mohamed Atta also underwent an impossible physical transformation.
Griffin examines each of these “miracles” in detail. Taken together, they reduce the official explanation of 9/11 to a story told to credulous children who are afraid of the dark. 

One can only hope that Americans are ready to grow up and accept that the bogeyman is real and that he is out to devour them and the rest of the world if they don’t awaken from their hypnotic sleep.
DYI