American Empire’s

Four Method’s of Narrative Control

Imperial Narrative Control Has Five Distinct Elements

By Caitlin Johnstone

Propaganda - Propaganda is the empire’s narrative creation system.

Censorship - Censorship is all about keeping unfavorable narratives away from public vision.

Silicon Valley algorithm manipulation - Relates to both propaganda and censorship, because it facilitates both.  To make sure that independent media doesn’t get seen very much while artificially elevating the online publications of mass media outlets.

Government secrecy - Like censorship, government secrecy is another way the empire prevents inconvenient narratives from entering public awareness.

DYI:  Caitlin provides additional insights for these four primary methods the American Empire uses to control the public’s perception of reality.  What is not understood by the vast majority of the American public is the degree of propaganda the main stream press delivers on a daily basis.  Propagandizing at its zenith is when those receiving the messages do not realize they are being propagandized.  Once realized by the observer as propaganda its effectiveness drops significantly.

 Till Next Time

DYI   

It Appears that the Great Wait has Ended and Now Entered into the Multi-Months Declines along with Bear Rallies! Hang onto your Hats, Cash, and Gold the U.S. Stock Market is in for Bumpy Ride!

 

Limbo, Limbo

How Low Can You Go?

DYI:  Using simple back of the envelope arithmetic will provide guidelines for average value for the market.  This average is determined going back all the way to 1871 and averaging the results.  Don’t worry this math work has been done by multiple web sites simply leaving us with some simple arithmetic.

Since this is the Dividend Yield Investor my preferred valuation for determining average or what others call fair value.  Going to multpl.com clicking on dividend yield for the S&P 500 as of 6/16/2022 the yield was 1.69% or price to dividend ratio of 59 to 1 AND the average yield since 1871 is 4.28% or price to dividend ratio of 23.  To achieve the average the market will have to fall from 59 to 23.  This is not a perfect measure as there is the possibility of dividend growth but rest assured the vast portion of this change will come from stocks falling in price.

A little math:  (59 – 23) / 59 x 100 = 61% decline.  Apply a 61% decline to the Dow Jones Industrial Average from the close on 6/16/2022 of 29,927 placing average value at – drum roll please – 11,671!  Absurd!??  When market analyst’s state that the U.S. stocks, bonds, and real estate is in a bubble this simple math illustrates how big the bubble has been blown for stocks.

   DYI

     

So far...the 2 year Treasury note has not inverted the 10 year Treasury Bond indicating the possibility of an upcoming recession.

Market

Update

DYI:  With all 4 of my major indicators negative for the U.S. Stock Market an expectation of declining prices was afoot.  Now we are having a bit of fireworks most likely the beginning of a saw tooth multi-month decline.  Saw tooth for sure with many spectacular declines and advances in order for the bear to suck in as many participants riding the market all the way down to its ultimate bottom.

So hang onto your hats, cash, and gold we are in for a wild ride.

Side note:  Jim Fetzer reported that it is of his opinion we will have around one per week of stage, FAKED, no one shot, no one killed, mass shootings all promoted as real by the propaganda spewing main stream press.  If he is correct there should be another fake shooting in the next few days all to promote gun control in the long term and gun sales in the short term.

DYI

Disclaimer

 Bear Market Alert

All

DYI’s Indicators are Negative!

This will put enormous downside pressure on stocks as alternative investments provide higher future estimated returns!

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Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 6/1/22

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

50% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

50% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **

 0% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

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Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.

"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:

Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]

Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........32.31
Bond Rate...4.10%

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

1.75 plus: Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30 Plus: Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

Current EYC Ratio: 0.83(rounded)

As of  6-1-22
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com

Bond Rate is the rate as reported by

Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX)

DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.

Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

%
Stocks & Bonds

Allocation Formula

6-1-22
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]

Formula's answer determines bond allocation.

Current PE10.....32.31

Avg. PE10...........16.95

% Stock Allocation    0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation 100% (rounded) 

Logic behind this approach:

--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 

--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.        

  

DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

A value based allocation strategy

February 19, 2010 by John Kingham

6/01/22
Updated Monthly

Oil Prices: 
6/01/17......$48.36

6/01/22......$116.58   

Up 141%(rounded)
(oil prices approximately five years earlier due to weekends & holidays)
West Texas Intermediate prices   

 OIL INDICATOR:  NEGATIVE!  

Oil prices are well known for their volatility in the short term, longer term due to dwindling reserves energy prices are in a secular bull market.  Technologies such as fracking will extend the life of oil fields but major new discoveries arrive at a snails pace far slower than the world's growth.  

As long as prices rise in a slow and orderly pace our economy can adjust to those changes, however if prices spike (international tensions, war etc.) high energy costs behave as a massive deflationary tax. This will send our economy tumbling down and very possibly the U.S. stock market.

If oil prices rise greater than 75% from five years earlier, investors at that time should shift their portfolio geared towards deflationary times.  This would be an oil indicator as negative.

If oil prices rise from five years earlier less than 10% or drop then the inflationary play is in effect; a positive for economic growth along with possible higher stock prices.

Where to find five year earlier oil prices?  Alaska Department of Revenue    

Oil indicator positive                
  5%  High-Yield Corporate Bonds
10%  REIT's
10%  Energy
10%  P.M.'s
65%  Small Caps
  0%  Lt. Gov't Bonds

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Or...Investors desiring simplicity

100% Vanguard's Wellington Fund symbol VWELX

On average 65% stocks - 35% bonds

Oil indicator negative
  5%  REIT's
10%  Energy

10%  P.M's
10%  Small Caps
65%  Lt. Gov't Bonds

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Or...Investors desiring simplicity

100% Vanguard's Wellesley Income Fund symbol VWINX

On average 35% stocks - 65% bonds

Vanguard Funds

REIT's
REIT Index Admiral  VGSLX

Energy
Energy Fund  VGENX

Precious Metals (P.M.'s)
Global Capital Cycles Fund VGPMX

Small Caps
Small Cap Value Index Admiral  VSIAX

High-Yield Corporate Bonds
High-Yield Corporate Bond Fund VWEHX

Long Term Government Bonds
Long-Term Government Bond Index Admiral  VLGSX

Disclaimer

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.