Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Oil prices in early 2020 went negative Big Oil lost billions - Big Pharma reaped billions. This war is/was to hike oil and gas prices!

 Oil

Wars

It Seems Russia Won’t Require a Winter Offensive to Win the War

Paul Craig Roberts

Moon of Alabama has proven to be a reliable source of reporting on the conflict in Ukraine.  The posting of November 23 indicates that some part of the Russian government or military has finally realized that Russia is at war.  You can read the account here:  https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/11/ukraine-lights-out-no-water-and-soon-no-heat-.html 

The eight-month old Kremlin policy of protecting Ukraine from attack, thus helping Ukraine to conduct war against the Russian forces, seems to have come to an end.  The infrastructure–power, transportation, water–of Ukraine is being shut down.  The real war Russian attacks on Ukraine’s ability to function have gradually escalated, resulting in wider and more serious damage.  It seems that the Russians don’t want to destroy everything unless the West and its puppet Ukraine government fail to come to their senses.  

The Western whore media, of course, doesn’t report the true situation.  The Western presstitutes are a propaganda ministry and have created a picture of Russian defeat.  It would be difficult to identify the worst liar in the Western media as there are endless candidates, but the UK Telegraph’s Charles Moore is a leading candidate for posting the most far-fetched reports:  

See, for example,” Vladimir Putin’s only hope now is to terrify the West into negotiating away Ukraine’s victories.” https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/11/18/vladimir-putins-hope-now-terrify-west-negotiating-away-ukraines/   

The Telegraph also tells us that “Ukraine could reach Crimea by Christmas”  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/19/ukraine-news-russia-war-latest-putin-missiles-severodonetsk/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr 

American so-called “Russian experts” spread the same delusions.

Consequently, the Western peoples have a totally false picture of the situation.  Russia could destroy Ukraine in a day without using nuclear weapons.  The Kremlin’s restraint–in my view a strategic blunder as it enabled the West to get involved and widen the war–in Ukraine has a number of legitimate reasons. Ukraine and the population there have been a part of Russia for centuries.  There is much intermarriage. Most Ukrainians are not favorable to the neo-Nazis who have dominated Ukraine since the US overthrew the government in 2014 and have suffered at their hands.  The Kremlin doesn’t want a poverty-stricken ruin of a country on its border, and the Kremlin doesn’t want the responsibility for rebuilding Ukraine’s infrastructure.

DYI:  Completely agree with Roberts assessment Russia needs to end the war in a decisive military victory.  Russia will then have excellent control over the Ukraine spoiling any future adventures by the American Empire.  We'll know soon enough within the next two weeks or so temperatures will fall past freezing hardening the soil allowing mobile military units movement without being stuck in the mud.      

It is inconceivable to me that “experts” and “reporters” in the West are so stupid and corrupt to have written the ridiculous accounts of the conflict that bear their names.  It is total nonsense and has encouraged the false belief that Russia can be defeated and that “Ukraine can be in Crimea by Christmas.”  

That such absurd propaganda can be effective can result in the US/NATO putting boots on the ground, and then we have World War III.

From Washington’s standpoint, the more Ukraine is destroyed the better.  If Putin finally abandons his half-way measures and gets down to real war, the war will soon be over.  If Washington can prevent Zelensky from surrendering until Ukraine is destroyed, Washington gets the benefit of the economic and financial drain on Russia that rebuilding will impose.  From Washington’s standpoint, the more problems for Russia the better regardless of the cost to Ukrainians.

What we are witnessing is the enormous inhumanity of Washington and the NATO capitals.  It is unjust that it is Ukraine that is paying the cost of Western inhumanity and not Washington and the European capitals.

DYI

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Videos and reading assignments! 


Top notch video by Kriss Anne Hall detailing the criminal actions of our Federal government and how the real action is local and especially your State governments.  https://libertyfirstsociety.com/noncompliantmovie/


Judge dismisses case over FBI raid of 1,400 private safe-deposit boxes and seizure of millions in jewelry and cash. https://www.businessinsider.com/fbi-raid-1400-boxes-us-private-vaults-ruling-2022-10?op=1.

'I WILL become governor!': Arizona GOP hopeful Kari Lake insists she's still on track to overturn Dem rival's election win, as AG's office demands explanation for polling day issues before certifying the result. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11448609/Arizona-attorney-generals-office-DEMANDS-answers-string-election-day-problems.html.

Arizona Attorney General’s Office Officially Opens Inquiry Into Voter Election Irregularities, Legal Violations, Voter Suppression. https://gellerreport.com/2022/11/arizona-attorney-generals-office-officially-opens-inquiry-into-voter-election-irregularities-legal-violations-voter-suppression.html/?lctg=51844094.

Kevin McCarthy Says He Will Remove Jew-Hater Ilhan Omar from Committee Assignment Over Her Antisemitism. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kevin-mccarthy-says-will-remove-ilhan-omar-committee-assignment-antisemitism-speaker

Georgia county officials mistakenly declared winner of council race before all votes counted. https://nypost.com/2022/11/19/georgia-county-officials-mistakenly-declared-winner-of-council-race-before-all-votes-counted/.

THEY KILLED PEOPLE: After Vicious Campaign Against Ivermectin (“Horse Paste”) For Covid, FDA Claims That Never Happened. https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/fda-says-telling-people-not-to-take-ivermectin-for-covid-19-was-just-a-recommendation_4873897.html.

Regardless of who wins any election, to have confidence in the outcome, we must continue to demand (1) real paper ballots, (2) hand counted in a bipartisan transparent process, and (3) citizen voter ID.

BONDS   

DYI:  As interest rates continue to rise and long term bonds have finally reached investment merit for those who are at least 10 years before retirement.  The compounding rate is now greater than the overall general return that can be achieved in the U.S. stock market.  DYI’s two indicators have been screaming this loudly for months and continue to scream to this day. 

 If retired then follow my model portfolio – actually everyone should to some degree – playing your cards close to the vest.

Precious metals are also a key component for DYI’s portfolio due do our valuation matric has the potential to outperform stocks and bonds.  My post today is to let everyone know that longer dated bonds are providing future positive returns.      

   Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 11/1/22

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
28% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
50% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **
 22% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]

** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.    

   

Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.
"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:
Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]
Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........28.53
Bond Rate...5.40%
EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

1.75 plus: Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30 Plus: Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

Current EYC Ratio: 0.71(rounded)
As of  11-1-22
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com
DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.
Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.
Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

AND
%
Stocks & Bonds
Allocation Formula
11-1-22
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]
Formula's answer determines bond allocation.


% Stock Allocation   5% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation 95% (rounded) 

Logic behind this approach:
--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 
--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  
Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.        
  
DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.
This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!
The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.
The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.
Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

Thursday, November 10, 2022

 Don’t Trust Government(s)

Avoid Mainstream Media

Fight the Lies!

THE MOST RIGGED ELECTION EVER

 by Miles Mathis

 First published November 9, 2022 

Meaning, they pushed this election, with more points in more races nationwide than ever before. Yeah, Mike Lindell is right on both counts: they went for the big steal, right in front of our faces, and nothing will be solved until we go back to paper ballots. Even that won't help if the “clowns” such as those running the show in Maricopa County are allowed to remain in place, since they can steal paper elections, too. They did it for generations. 

Publius 2.0 is also right: this was all manufactured from Langley. 

But I remind you I am not agreeing with Lindell or Publius, they are agreeing with me. I was saying these things before anyone had heard of Publius or Lindell.

And yeah, my prediction of a red wave was wrong, though I did strongly hedge it. I think we all knew it was either/or: either a huge red wave to move everyone right, or a big obvious steal, to keep everyone off-balance and push us toward a civil war. There was nothing in between. The only thing we knew is that nothing sensible or believable would happen. I should have listened to Bill Gates, who has a better feel for how the evil ones think. I can't get in their heads. Like any sane person, I keep looking for how they can get out of this and save themselves. If I were them I would be trying to save my soul as well as my hide. But they aren't me and I am not them, thank the Muses. They have no real desire for comfort, happiness, or problem solving, even for themselves. 

They only have an unquenchable lust for short-term power, chaos, destruction, and lies, even if it means watching their own families and bodies crash and burn. They are drawn to the pit like a magnet.

You will say, “If they were going to steal it, why not steal it all the way, taking the House and Senate?” Because they didn't need to. By damping the red wave to a red trickle, they allow the Dems to now claim a mandate, by saying they did much better than Obama in 2010 and 2014. They can claim there is no widespread dissatisfaction, allowing them to continue on pretty much as before, while still hiding somewhat behind a plausible deniability. In other words, they stole only as much as they needed, but not enough to create a raft of martyrs. As it is, they created only a few like Bolduc and Zeldin: not enough to rally around nationwide. Those races were clearly stolen, but by margins large enough that the loser would have a hard time claiming fraud. They didn't want a nationwide rally, because that might be against the system in general, rather than just red against blue. 

They have to be careful to spark a civil war rather than a revolution.

It is tricky, as you see, because after 2020 even many Dems were admitting the system was broken. Dems were polling at astonishingly high numbers saying the election was stolen. That kind of sentiment doesn't lead to civil war, it leads to revolution.

I am going to skip any longwinded analysis of this one, since I remind you it just doesn't matter. The Republicans weren't going to save us anyway. They might have made things a bit easier, like DeSantis has done in Florida, but beyond that nothing was going to change. 

Congress and Governors don't run this country and never have: they are beholden to higher powers and do what they are told.

It looks like Kari Lake will come back from her strange 19 point deficit, but even so I don't expect she will do much. At best, she will act as a DeSantis for Arizona, which is not nothing. But remember, DeSantis was pro-vaccine in the crucial first year. Like Trump, he has the blood of thousands on his hands. 

Kari Lake will control the opposition.

I will remind you of something, though: right before the election, it wasn't just the reds predicting a huge red wave, it was the CIA's own newspaper, the Washington Post. It was the major banks. It was the Democratic National Committee (minus Pelosi). All the polls were pointing at huge House gains and a red Senate. 

The CIA had to have known how this would go, so it appears they were just setting you up for disappointment. They love nothing more than jerking the rug out from under you. It is job one at Langley.

I had thought they were most interested in moving us right in this cycle, but as it turns out they were most interested in grinding their heel in your face, even if it meant harm to themselves. Maybe they did it just to spite me. I hope so, because if they did they just fell into my trap.

I watched votes coming in nationwide for hours, so I do have one major comment, based on that crunching of data. This election was stolen in the exact opposite way of 2020, on purpose and to stir your mind. In 2020, the red candidates went out to early and seemingly unassailable leads, leads they kept until 80% or 90%, and sometimes up to 95%. But then in the last 5 or 10%, the blue candidates suddenly surged, most of them in the wee hours of the morning while you slept. This time, to be clever, the Dems warned us beforehand they would do that again, stealing it late, possibly with mail-ins in the days following the election. They said it might take days to count the votes. So the Reps were on high alert for that. But then the opposite happened: they front-loaded the steal in the first hour of counting, and we saw blue candidates in tight races take truly astounding early leads of 20 points or more. When I first tuned in, Fetterman was up by 18, and we saw the same thing in Arizona after polls closed, with Lake and Masters being swamped in their races. Warnock was way up on Walker in the early stages, and it was the same everywhere else, with Hochul and Whitmer and so on. So where were these early votes supposed to be coming from? In Arizona, they couldn't have been coming from Maricopa, since that is where all the worst snafus were. But more to the point, why would 2022 proceed upside down to 2020, as a whole? We are in the same country with the same machines just two years later.

Don't tell me Covid and mail-ins, because that doesn't come close to explaining it. Fewer mail-ins due to lower fear of infection would logically only delete the late blue surge. It would not cause an early blue tsunami nationwide. As I say, a general 20 point early surge can only be explained as a computer gift, meant to place those races out of reach of any real counting. The only reason Lake appears to be closing that gap as I write (she is now only .2 down with 66% counted) is that they appear to have miscalculated her popularity. It is pretty hard to steal a 70-30 race, and even starting Lake at 40% won't do it. Those totals may be stalled as they roll in a plan B, stealing it from her a second time in two days. No doubt they are trying to quickly manufacture a late blue surge, maybe with a pile of mail-ins discovered in a laundry hamper or something.

 Here's the most telling statistic I saw in this whole cycle:

Generally speaking, due you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, or don't you consider yourself either?  Would you say you're closer to the Democrats, the Republicans, or don't you lean toward either?

+Democrat/lean Dem   43,109   43%

+Republican/lean Rep  40,836   49%

+Independent                 8,827    7%

Sample: 92,722  Respondents   

That's a huge poll by FOX/AP, run out of the University of Chicago. As you see, it included a gigantic sampling, nearly 93,000 people. And all were polled in the past week, after Halloween. That poll by itself puts the lie to election numbers. It shows people are so dissatisfied with the Democratic Party they don't even identify with it anymore. Compare that to my paper in 2012 on the national elections, where we found that there were 86 million registered Democrats, 55 million Republicans, and 28 million registered Other. That comes out to 51% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 17% Other. With those numbers, Romney didn't have a chance against Obama, and I showed there that the numbers had to be rigged to make it look close. Even so, the electoral vote was a landslide. So with Republicans up by 6 points this time, and most Independents expected to vote non-Dem, the Reds should have had a 13 point head start everywhere. That is a recipe for an unpreventable tsunami, if real votes are counted. You could not maintain a split Senate under those conditions. So we know something besides real votes were counted.

I have to admit I am actually happy they stole this one so conspicuously, since it was another big mistake. It will indeed drive us in the direction of a civil war, since it will further infuriate the masses. But that war will not go as planned. To make that work, they need to keep us pointed at one another. They need to create a blue and a gray, but their apparatus to achieve that is gone. 

With the collapse of the mainstream media their ability to herd us in that way is all but evaporated. 

The morale of the army is also in tatters, so they can't fall back on that in an emergency, either. They have created a huge instability in the system on purpose, Operation Chaos, which they think keeps us off balance. But that instability goes both ways, because it makes the chances very high they will lose control of the narrative at a crucial juncture, allowing a pivot point in history. If blue and gray ally against black, it is all over for the Phoenix. That is what is coming. I think they know that, but like all addicts, they can't quit.

Thanks Miles

DYI 

Tuesday, November 1, 2022

Interest Rates Leap...Bond Values Decline improving compounded returns...Gold is Precious...Stocks Remain Stubbornly Overvalued!

 

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 11/1/22

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
28% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
50% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **
 22% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]
** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

 This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.
This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!
The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.
The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.
Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.


Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.
"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:
Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]
Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........28.53
Bond Rate...5.40%
EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

1.75 plus: Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30 Plus: Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

Current EYC Ratio: 0.71(rounded)
As of  11-1-22
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com
DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.
Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.
Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

%
Stocks & Bonds
Allocation Formula
11-1-22
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]
Formula's answer determines bond allocation.


% Stock Allocation   5% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation 95% (rounded) 

Logic behind this approach:
--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 
--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  
Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.        
  
DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.
This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!
The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.
The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.
Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.