Sentiment Changes

 

The Great Baby Boomer Sell-Off is About to Begin and Change Everything

May 13, 2017

The American economy is about to be completely disrupted by a tsunami I like to call “The Great Baby Boomer Sell Off.”

The concept here is both simple and inevitable; people tend to sell stuff off as they get older. There are around 74.9 million Baby Boomers and they are definitely getting older.

The standard definition of a “Baby Boomer” is a person born in the 20 years after World War II; defined as either 1946 to 1964 or 1945 to 1965, depending on who you ask. That means the youngest boomers are 51 to 52 years of age, while the oldest are now 73. 

DYI:  [Today’s age range; 59 to 79 with appx. 10,000 boomer’s turning 65 per day.] 

The Biggest Yard Sale in History

The aging of the Baby Boom will have many profound effects on the economy; the first of these to be seen will be the biggest yard sale in history. This will occur because people dispose of assets in three phases as they age.

The first thing older people get rid of are personal possessions such as clothing, furniture, vehicles and collectibles. This is already occurring big time as anybody who has checked out the prices of comic books or coins on eBay in recent years knows.

Such a trend will heat up as Boomers sell their homes and move to Florida, downsize to smaller places, and start moving to retirement or communities or care homes. Basically the price of collectibles, antiques, vintage clothing and used furniture is about to collapse as the market becomes flooded with such items.

DYI:  The only reason that residential real estate has not collapsed is due to Fed policy of sub atomically low interest rates that only ended until recently.  Extreme pump priming fiscal spending has taken over from where the Federal Reserve ended – [with the obvious sky rocketing budget deficits pushing our national debt to 34 trillion].

The Great Real Estate Sell Off

After possessions, the next thing that aging people tend to dump is real estate. They first unload rental, business, investment and vacation properties, but eventually sell their homes.

The real estate sell off will come in three waves, the first of which is under way and may not have much impact. This phase consists of people selling homes so they can migrate to the Sun Belt, or downsize to a smaller home.

Such selling has little effect on property values because people can take their time to sell. We might be seeing some effect from this selling in cities like Denver and San Francisco where aging boomers are cashing in on high real-estate prices.

The second wave comes when people have to leave their homes because of financial or health reasons. That is they run out of money, can no longer physically maintain the property or need to go to a nursing home or move in with the kids. The third wave will come when the Boomers die, and their heirs want to unload the home.

Real Estate Prices are About to Collapse, thanks Boomers

The second and third waves should scare us because a lot of property will be sold fast. That will depress prices and deflate the real estate market. A similar scenario is already playing out in Japan where home values fell by 60% over the past 30 years, author Harry S. Dent Jr. noted in his excellent book The Sale of a Life Time.

Such selling will drag down property values because many of the homes will be in places Millennials and Generation Xers simply do not want to live. This includes farther out suburbs, and places like Pennsylvania, Vermont and Upstate New York.

Expect to see the first big wave of home sell offs begin soon because one in three Americans; and presumably one in three boomers, has nothing saved for retirement, Time reported. This includes the 52% of boomers that are planning to work longer, The Motely Fool reported.

The only way a lot of those people will be able to finance retirement is by selling their homes. The first wave of sellers will be those whose plans to work longer are cut short by health problems or job loss.

This sell off will continue throughout the 2020s with home values hitting rock bottom sometime between 2030 and 2035. Some real estate markets; particularly those in the Midwest, California, Arizona and New England, may never recover from the resulting collapse.

DYI:  This real estate crash will be a slow motion train wreck as prices are work down to lower levels whether in nominal terms or real.  Nominal is prices simply retreating by x percentage or prices staying around the same only to be work down by the effect of inflation (real).  My take is this will be a combination of a push and pull of both effects nominal and real (after inflation). 

Baby Boomers are about to Crash the Stock Market Too

Disturbingly real estate is not the only market that Boomers have distorted; they have also had a dramatic impact on the stock market. This will occur because the third thing that older people dump before dying is investments and savings much of which is now in the form of stocks and mutual funds.

A big reason why the S&P 500 has grown by 71.71% over the past five years is retirement investing, mostly by Boomers. The amount of money managed by Vanguard; the largest U.S. indexed fund provider, quadrupled over the last few years, rising from $1 trillion to $4.2 trillion, The New York Times reported. Most of that money is invested in stocks via indexed funds.

This investing extends even beyond American shores; Australians had $2.2 trillion invested in superannuation or retirement funds in December 2016. Since there are around five million Baby Boomers Down Under, it is obvious who controls most of that money.

The collapse will come when the Boomers start selling off all that stock to fund their retirement. That might begin sooner than you think, disturbingly one out of four boomers is already raiding his or her retirement accounts to pay bills right now, The Washington Post reported. Up to 36% admitted they will have to pull money out for nonretirement expenses.

My prediction is that the current bull market will peak around 2020, and slowly fall off during the 2020s as more and more Boomers sell off stock. Expect to see a major Bear Market in the late 2020s as large amounts of stock is dumped on the market by aging Boomers. To make matters worse; around 12% took out loans against their 401K or IRA to pay bills.

DYI:  As it stands now we have a massively overvalued U.S. stock market the only reason it continues to defy this generational typhoon the major players have formed cartels to enhance their profits by jacking up prices greater than the actual inflationary increase.  This cannot go on for much longer as our citizens are now relying on credit cards to maintain their standard of living with many using credit cards to purchase groceries.

Below is my sentiment indicator of the assets that are used for my model portfolio.  Note that for the longest time bills and notes were not just in the dog house, but were a forgotten asset only to be rediscovered as interest rates lifted from their sub atomically low levels.  It is my opinion that short term notes no longer than 5 years will out perform the U.S. stock market over the next ten years and gold possibly out performing short term notes.

Sentiment Changes

Smart Money - Buys Aggressively!

Capitulation

Despondency

Max-Pessimism 

Depression 

Hope - Silver F

Relief *Market returns to Mean  - Short Term Bonds & MMF

Smart Money - Buys the Dips!

Optimism - Gold

Media Attention

Enthusiasm

Smart Money - Sells the Rallies!

Thrill

Greed

Delusional

Max-Optimism  

Denial of Problem - Stocks 

Anxiety 

Fear

Desperation - Long Term Bonds

 CDC

Is a Real Work Of Art!

From ViroLIEgy site

June of 2020 were articles admitting that the images of “SARS-COV-2” utilized to sell the public on the threat of the invisible “virus” were simply artist renderings. It was stated that just a few years ago, all they had were cartoons or artistic representations. 

This is because the CDC has its own art department that creates images of “viruses” in order to sell the public on the “threat” that they could not see.

 The images were created to “grab the public’s attention.” To do so, they utilized a piece of software called Autodesk 3ds Max, which was said to be “where all the magic happens."

The aim was to make the “viruses” look like they’re really alive so that the public knew to be aware of them. It was admitted that the high-resolution graphic of “SARS-COV-2” on the CDC's website is “partially artistic.” Essentially, it is all marketing and branding to convince people of a non-existence “threat.”

This is not just limited to the images of “SARS-COV-2” like that seen in the title of this article. The images of the “real virus” are composites made up of 100,000 scanning electron microscope images put together via computer algorithms. With the emergence of better computational methods, they convert thousands of 2D images into a single reconstructed 3D map. These works of art are used to allow people to visualize the fictional entities claimed to be making them sick. 

The new technology also helps to continue to fool researchers into believing that they are capturing images of the mythical unicorns, when in fact, they are doing nothing of the sort. 

In reality, what they are doing is taking images of random particles from unpurified fluids. They admittedly are unable to tell images of “SARS-COV-2” apart from different “coronaviruses,” “exosomes,” and other extracellular vesicles. All they are doing is pointing-and-declaring at the same particles while giving them different names.

The Pandemic Pattern—how the illusion is built

 

Sep8by Jon Rappoport

September 8, 2021

(To join our email list, click here.)

This article is based on my study and investigation of so-called epidemics over the past 30 years.

In the case of COVID-19, I’ve written at least one piece covering, in detail, each main element of the illusion. Here, I’m laying out the pattern. It is virtually the same for each fake epidemic.

ONE: Through many meetings, exercises, planning sessions, a structure is welded in place to promote and launch the IDEA of an epidemic. World Health Organization, CDC, influential public health officials attached to governments around the world, etc., participate in these meetings.

TWO: There is a purported incident. An outbreak. The most obvious cause is intentionally overlooked. For example, horrendous air pollution, or the grotesque feces and urine pollution on a giant commercial pig factory-farm. Instead, the world is told a new virus has been found. Local researchers, if any, are augmented by researchers from CDC, WHO.

THREE: There is no air-tight chain of evidence explaining exactly how the purported new virus was discovered. From details released, there is NO proof of discovery. Indeed, conventional methods of virus-isolation are bogus fabrications.

FOUR: But WHO/CDC tells the world this is an epidemic in the making, caused by the new virus. The promotion and propaganda/media apparatus moves into high gear. Ominous pronouncements.

FIVE: Diagnostic tests for the fictitious new virus are rolled out. They spit out false “proof of infection” like coins from a jackpot slot machine. These false-positives are an inherent feature of the tests.

SIX: Thus, all case numbers and death numbers, which are based on the tests, are rendered meaningless. And…they were already meaningless, because the supposed new virus “being tested for” was never discovered in the first place.

SEVEN: Nevertheless, these tests (plus useless eyeball diagnosis) are used to build official reports on case numbers. For the duration of the “epidemic,” reports keep coming, and escalating numbers are trumpeted. Within the basically meaningless structure of these reports, there is fiddling with totals, to make them more impressive and frightening.

EIGHT: Real people are really getting sick and dying, but for the most part, they are people who are dying from traditional and long-standing conditions—flu-like illness, pneumonia, other lung infections, etc. These people are “re-packaged” under the new epidemic label—e.g., “COVID”. The official description of the “new epidemic disease”—the clinical symptoms—is sufficiently general to easily allow this re-packaging.

NINE: If there is new illness, it can be explained by causes having nothing to do with the purported new virus. For example, a toxic vaccine campaign. A highly destructive drug. Highly toxic pesticides.

TEN: Over time, the definition of the epidemic is arbitrarily widened to include more symptoms and clinical features and test results, in order to inflate case numbers.

ELEVEN: Control of information about the “epidemic” is hardened at the top. The talking heads, from the press and public health agencies, know as much about actual science as rabbits know about drone strikes. But they are “in charge.” Dissident information is attacked and censored.

TWELVE: Medical drugs and procedures (e.g., ventilators) used to treat patients are devastatingly harmful. If a vaccine is rolled out, it, too, is toxic. Illness and death resulting from these and other medical attacks are counted as “epidemic cases caused by the virus.”

THIRTEEN: ABOVE ALL OTHER ILLUSIONS, the main deception is: “the epidemic is one disease or syndrome caused by one germ.” This is sold with unceasing propaganda. Most people fall for it. They will even argue among themselves about which “it” is the single cause of the “it” disease. There is no “it” cause or “it” disease.

FOURTEEN: The public is sold lie after lie about contagion and the “spread” of the “it.”

FIFTEEN: The public chants (as if no one has ever died before), “People are dying, it must be the virus.”

SIXTEEN: The virus fairy tale always functions as a cover story for government or corporate or medical crimes. It obscures and hides these crimes. For example, a large factory is spewing horrendous pollution into the ground and water of an area, and people are getting sick and dying? Wait, the researchers say, the cause is actually a new virus no one has ever seen before.

As I wrote at the outset of the COVID illusion, the only difference this time is the weight of the lies—because they led to the lockdowns and the economic devastation. This is West Nile, SARS, Swine Flu, Zika, writ large. And of course the COVID vaccine is massively destructive.

Needless to say, the persons and groups responsible for launching these illusion-operations must hide their crimes.

The criminals have their weapons. Among their most powerful: control of the press, and arcane technical language which pretends to relevance. This language is so dense, the uninitiated stand no chance of penetrating it.

For instance, researchers can babble for hours about their vaunted diagnostic test, the PCR. However, the simple truth is, the test has never been vetted. The test has never been tested in the real world outside the lab.

I have written about this extensively. Using a little guideline called SCIENCE, you would “test the test” by lining up, say, a thousand patients, some healthy, some sick from a supposed virus. Tissue samples would be taken from each patient.

PCR mavens would run these samples through their equipment, reporting which patients show what they call high “viral load.”

This means: these particular patients have millions and millions of virus actively replicating in their bodies, and they will be unmistakably and visibly sick.

The PCR princes would then announce, “Patients 3,45,65,76,132…are all definitely sick.”

Now we un-blind the study and see what’s what and who’s who. Are these designated patients ill or are they running marathons? That’s called simple scientific method. Not technical gobbledygook.

This chunk of research has never been done. It never will be done. It’s too real. Too naked. Proponents of the PCR would have too much to lose, if their assessments of who are healthy and who are sick turned out to be absurdly wrong, and their arcane technical rhetoric about the PCR ended up being useless gibberish.

I include this illustration to indicate there are, indeed, ways of exposing professional liars, if you change the venue on them, if you use common sense, if you stand outside their self-appointed temples of mystical pretense and observe what their lies look like when you boil them down to human terms…

COVID is a fraud from top to bottom. From beginning to end.

 CDC

Triples Down

Attempting to Push

Their Bogus Vaccines 

Urgent Need to Increase Immunization Coverage for Influenza, COVID-19, and RSV and Use of Authorized/Approved Therapeutics in the Setting of Increased Respiratory Disease Activity During the 2023 – 2024 Winter Season

Summary

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is issuing this Health Alert Network (HAN) Health Advisory to alert healthcare providers to low vaccination rates against influenza, COVID-19, and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus). Low vaccination rates, coupled with ongoing increases in national and international respiratory disease activity caused by multiple pathogens, including influenza viruses, SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), and RSV, could lead to more severe disease and increased healthcare capacity strain in the coming weeks. In addition, a recent increase in cases of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) following SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States has been reported 

Healthcare providers should administer influenza, COVID-19, and RSV immunizations now to patients, if recommended. Healthcare providers should recommend antiviral medications for influenza and COVID-19 for all eligible patients, especially patients at high-risk of progression to severe disease such as older adults and people with certain underlying medical conditions. 

Healthcare providers should also counsel patients about testing and other preventive measures, including covering coughs/sneezes, staying at home when sick, improving ventilation at home or work, and washing hands to protect themselves and others against respiratory diseases.

DYI:  Not just their ineffective vaccines that will possibly subject you to harms(permanent injury) and possible death the CDC is pushing healthcare workers to administer additional tests – [COVID rapid test is bogus as COVID does not exist] – all in an attempt to gin up greater numbers to keep the fraud going.

 1-1-2024

Updated Monthly

Secular Market Top - Since January 2000

+227.8% Dow       

+434.0% Transports 

+211.1% Utilities

+224.6%  S&P 500

+268.9%  Nasdaq

+ 38.1%  30yr Treasury Bond

+615.4% Gold

+179.9% Oil
  +88.8% Swiss Stock Market

    

From High to Low - Since Year 2000

+ 615.4% Gold

+ 434.0% Transports

+ 268.9% Nasdaq

+ 227.8% Dow

+ 224.6% S&P 500
+ 211.1% Utilities
+ 179.9% Oil

+   88.8% Swiss Stock Market

+   38.1% 30yr Treasury Bonds

December 1999 Shiller PE10 was 44.19               
August 2000 S&P 500 dividend yield was 1.11%  

Shiller PE10  1-1-24 is 32.27  189% above its mean since 1871.
S&P 500 dividend yield 1-1-24 is 1.45%  66% below its mean since 1871.
[Shiller PE10 & dividend yield is reported using data from the beginning or end of the month when I update.  It may or may not exactly be the first or last trading day of the month.]

11-1-24

Stock-earnings yield 3.10%

Bond rate 4.86%

Stock-earnings yield/bond yield = 64% of  present bond yield.

Dividend yield/bond yield = 30% of the present bond yield.  

***************************

It is easily seen in the year 2000 the Nasdaq was horribly overvalued and gold was on the give away table, such lopsided returns 20+ years later!