Measured by wages, housing affordability is now worse than at the peak of the 2005-07 Housing Bubble #1.

 

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 12/1/25

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

42% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

29% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **

 29% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.

"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:

Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]

Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........40.42
Bond Rate...5.17%

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

2.00+ Stocks on the give-away-table!

1.75+ Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30+ Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

0.50 or less:  Stock Market Crash Alert!  

Purchase 30 year Treasury Bonds! 

Current EYC Ratio: 0.53(rounded)

As of  12-1-25
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com

Bond Rate is the rate as reported by

Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX)

DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.

Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

%
Stocks & Bonds

Allocation Formula

12-1-2025
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]

Formula's answer determines bond allocation.

Current PE10.....40.42

Avg. PE10...........17.31

Core Bond Allocation:  139% 

% Stock Allocation     0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation  100% (rounded)

Current Asset: Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade Bond Fund   

Logic behind this approach:

--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 

--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.

Current Allocation:

Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund

Possible Allocations to Bonds vs Stocks:

Bonds %

100%+  Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund 

99% to 65% Wellesley Income Fund

64% to 35% 1/2 Wellesley Income Fund - 1/2 Wellington Fund

34% to 20%  Equity Income Fund

19% to 0%  Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund

  

DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

A value based allocation strategy

February 19, 2010 by John Kingham

 Bubble

Land

If this legislation passes this will be an interest generating 50 year gift to mortgage bankers keeping Americans ever deeper in debt!

A 50-Year Mortgage Does Nothing for “Affordability,” Is a Terrible Deal for Homeowners and a Superb Deal for Banks & Investors

by Wolf Richter • Nov 11, 2025

Monthly payment for a 50-year mortgage of $500,000 would be only $91 lower than of a 30-year mortgage, but homeowners would get crushed by nearly $1 million in interest.

 

 Consumer Sentiment

&

I Bonds

Consumer Sentiment Collapses to Near Record Low

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.3 in early November, down from 53.6 in October, one of the worst readings since the survey began in the late 1970s. Yes, even worse than most months during the 2008 crisis. Only the brief collapse in mid-2022, when inflation shocked almost everyone, came close. It’s a striking reminder of how heavy the public mood has turned. 

People are worried about prices again, about rates staying high, about whether the job market might finally crack. You can almost feel the fatigue setting in. And when sentiment drops to this kind of level, it usually takes time, sometimes years, for confidence to recover.

The 3 biggest drivers for consumer sentiment collapse: 

1.)  Residential real estate whether buying or renting affordability.

2.)  Sky high secondary educational costs causing massive student loans indebtedness.

3.)  Anything related to health care primarily the overall costs and growing understanding of fraudulent (fictitious) diseases and unnecessary treatments.  COVID SCAM is the primary example.

Series I Savings Bonds: Good Time to Buy?

How I-Bonds Pay Interest

I-Bonds combine two rates: a fixed rate (which does not change for the life of the bond) and an inflation rate (which resets every six months). For the issuance period from November 2025 to April 2026, the fixed rate is 0.90% and the inflation component rate (six-month rate) is 1.56%. These combine to give an annual composite rate of about 4.03%. That’s for this specific issuance period, mind you. The inflation piece will change in six months.

The fixed rate stays with you for the entire 30-year life of the bond. The inflation component adjusts every six months based on the CPI. 

Series I bonds have tax-deferred interest, meaning you can choose to defer paying federal income tax on the interest until the bond is redeemed or reaches final maturity. This allows the interest to continue earning interest for up to 30 years. The interest is also exempt from state and local income taxes.

Holding Period and Maturity

The bonds mature in 30 years, meaning you earn interest up to that point. But there are some restrictions. Restrictions:

• Have to hold at least one year
• If sell within the first five years, you forfeit the last three months of interest. 

Where to Buy

You purchase I-Bonds directly from the U.S. government via the Bureau of the Fiscal Service’s website, Treasury Direct. 

I-Bonds vs. Other Fixed Income: Good Time to Buy?

• Compared with Money Market: Money Market is more liquid. But it's not pegged with inflation (or at least not as sensitive as I Bond). 
• Compared with TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities):

  TIPS are probably the closest comparison to I-Bonds. Both offer inflation protection. But the mechanics are different. Right now, a 10-year TIPS has a real yield of about 1.79% much higher than I-Bond fixed rate 0.9%.  But TIPs has downside: to sell before maturity, you might actually lose principal depending on market conditions. There is also tax headache for TIPs. 

DYI COMMENT:  With nose bleed levels for the U.S. stock market I Bonds is an saving/investment alternative for long term money.  Obviously this will depend upon the individuals financial planning needs.  

For those in the higher tax brackets with Federal taxes differed and exempt from State/Local taxes and zero market risk to principal it is an effective add on to any portfolio.

Simply knowing what exist and how they work gives you more ammunition to full fill your savings/investment goals.  

 

 

The Late Dick Russell

(1924 to 2015)

Rich Man, Poor Man

In the investment world the wealthy investor has one major advantage over the little guy, the stock market amateur and the neophyte trader.  The advantage that the wealthy investor enjoys is that HE DOESN'T NEED THE MARKETS.  I can't begin to tell you what a difference that makes, both in one's mental attitude and in the way one actually handles one's money.

The wealthy investor doesn't need the markets, because he already has all the income he needs.  He has money coming in via bonds, T-bills, money market funds, stocks and real estate.  In other words, the wealthy investor never feels pressured to "make money" in the market.

The wealthy investor is an expert on values.  When bonds are cheap and bond yields are irresistibly high, he buys bonds.  When stocks are on the bargain table and stock yields are attractive, he buys stocks. When real estate is a great value, he buys real estate. When great art or fine jewelry or gold is on the "give away" table, he buys art or diamonds or gold.

In other words, the wealthy investor puts his money where the great values are. And if no outstanding values are available; the wealthy investor waits.  He can afford to wait. He has money coming in daily, weekly, monthly.  The wealthy investor knows what he is looking for, and he doesn't mind waiting months or even years for his next investment (they call that patience).

What about the little guy?  This fellow always feels pressured to "make money." And in return he's always pressuring the market to "do something" for him.  But sadly, the market isn't interested.

When the little guy isn't buying stocks offering 1% or 2% yields, he's off to Las Vegas or Atlantic City trying to beat the house at roulette.  Or he's spending 20 bucks a week on lottery tickets, or he's "investing" in some crackpot scheme that his neighbor told him about (in strictest confidence, of course).

And because the little guy is trying to force the market to do something for him, he's a guaranteed loser.  The little guy doesn't understand values so he constantly overpays.  He doesn't comprehend the power of compounding; he doesn't understand money.  He's never heard the adage, "He who understands interest -- earns it.  He who doesn't understand interest – pays it." The little guy is the typical American, and he's deeply in debt.

The little guy is in hock up to his ears. As a result, he's always sweating.  Sweating to make payments on his house, refrigerator, car or lawn mower he's impatient, and he feels perpetually put upon.  He tells himself that he has to make money -- fast. And he dreams of those "big, juicy mega-bucks." In the end, the little guy wastes his money in the market, or he loses his money gambling, or he dribbles it away on senseless schemes.  In short, this "money-nerd" spends his life dashing up the financial down-escalator.

But here's the ironic part of it.  If, from the beginning, the little guy had adopted a strict policy of never spending more than he made, if he had taken his extra savings and compounded it in intelligent, income-producing securities, then in due time he'd have money coming in daily, weekly, monthly, just like the rich man. The little guy would have become a financial winner, instead of a pathetic loser. Because the little guy is trying to force the market to do something for him, he's a guaranteed loser."

Rule 1: COMPOUNDING...

Rule 2: DON'T LOSE MONEY:

This may sound naïve, but believe me it isn't.  If you want to be wealthy, you must not lose money, or I should say must not lose BIG money.  Absurd rule, silly rule?  Maybe, but MOST PEOPLE LOSE MONEY in disastrous investments, gambling, rotten business deals, greed, poor timing. Yes, after almost five decades of investing and talking to investors, I can tell you that most people definitely DO lose money, lose big time -- in the stock market, in options and futures, in real estate, in bad loans, in mindless gambling, and in their own business.

RULE 3: VALUES: The only time the average investor should stray outside the basic compounding system is when a given market offers outstanding value.  I judge an investment to be a great value when it offers (a) safety; (b) an attractive return; and (c) a good chance of appreciating in price.  At all other times, the compounding route is safer and probably a lot more profitable, at least in the long run."

-Richard Russell

DYI:  I attempted without luck to find when Richard Russell wrote these two observational letters, however I remember reading them on the internet during the mid 1990's.  My best guess they were written back in the 1980's and despite being at least 40 plus years old they are just as relevant today as they were back then.

What does Dick Russell mean by compounding?  

Short term bond funds, money market funds, CD's at the bank, Series E or I Savings Bonds, buying 2 or 5 year U.S. Treasury notes etc.  In other words buying save and very boring interest bearing investment assets building a nest egg waiting patiently for the next on-the-give-away table investment.   

 

J. Paul Getty Quotes!

Stock Market - "For as long as I can remember, veteran businessmen and investors - I among them - have been warning about the dangers of irrational stock speculation and hammering away at the theme that stock certificates are deeds of ownership and not betting slips.

The professional investor has no choice but to sit by quietly while the mob has its day, until enthusiasm or panic of the speculators and non-professionals has been spent. He is not impatient, nor is he even in a very great hurry, for he is an investor, not a gambler or a speculator. There are no safeguards that can protect the emotional investor from himself."

If the S&P 500 were currently on its long-term regression, 

its value would be 2257.

62% Drop!

The Current Market vs. The Long-Term Trend

A chart of the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index, dating back to 1871, reveals a long-term pattern. Using a semi-log scale, a regression trendline shows the market's multi-year periods of trading above and below this trend. This trendline, incidentally, represents an average annual growth rate of 2.00%.

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Bubble

Trouble

 “Does anyone else find it odd that $200 billion is spent on cancer research every year, yet cancer deaths are up 75% since the 1990s?

Cancer Research is Very Profitable

For the Medical Industrial Complex!

 How to Use this Blog

Four Uncorrelated Assets

1.)  Stocks

2.)  Long Term High Grade Corporate/Government Bonds

3.)  Short Term Notes (Cash)

4.)  Gold – Precious Metals Mining Companies

Four Assets Correlated to Four Economic Conditions

1.)  Prosperity

2.)  Deflation

3.)  Recession

4.)  Inflation

1.)  Prosperity: Stocks become a clear winner during conditions of increasing employment, rising wages tied to increasing productivity along with rising profits.  Junk bonds (they trade like stocks) are also winners in this environment despite their low quality; the economy is so good interest and principal payments are made – defaults are minimum – and a positive climate for refinancing.  High quality corporate/ government bonds are secondary winners as prosperity is noted for stable or slowly declining rates.  Gold is generally a loser in prosperity as inflation is minimized and investors seek higher returns in more traditional investments.

2.)  Deflation:  Deflation is the decease in the general price level of goods and services.  The Great Depression is a standout example of deflation.  The general cause is when excess debt is built up in the private sector that can no longer be increased and/or maintained resulting in massive bankruptcies.  This creates an environment of panic as businesses scramble to become profitable by firing employees and cutting hours of remaining workers.  In this deflationary episode interest rates decline, prices decline, and the almighty buck rises in value against softer currencies.

Long term high quality corporate bonds and long term U.S. government bonds are winners in this type of economy.  Stocks, gold, and junk bonds generally will fall in price along with interest rates on short term notes.

3.)  Recession:  For DYI's purposes recessions are a period of increasing interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve in order to quell inflation by slowing down an over heating economy.  This condition is temporary as the economy will either adjust to the new economic environment bringing back prosperity or a deflationary period will begin.

High quality corporate/government bonds, stocks, gold, and junk bonds are all losers in this scenario. Short term notes and money market funds are clear winner as their principal value remains steady plus the interest income improves with increasing interest rates.

4.)  Inflation:  Too much money chasing too few goods.  When Federal government liabilities become onerous from financing of war(s) and/or social programs that are too great to be paid by taxation governments will resort to money creation to pay the remaining costs.  After WWII, Korea, Vietnam and the war on Poverty inflation began slowly prices increased relentlessly (despite high taxes) as government liabilities expanded.  When President Richard Nixon closed the gold window (1971) the last vestige of inflationary controls were removed with inflation peaking in the high teens only until Paul Volker was appointed as Fed Chairman (August 79) who crushed inflation with high interest rates.

Stocks, high quality long term corporate/government bonds, junk bonds are all losers as inflation soars along with interest rate increases (despite the Fed's efforts to suppress them).  Cash (money market funds) or short term notes are neutral or slightly lag inflation rolling up to the higher interest rate quickly.

Gold is a winner when inflation breaks above 5%.  When inflation goes double digit gold is marked up in price to reflect the debasement of the currency.  Gold will also rise in price based upon fear of massive defaults as gold has no counter party risk.

 VALUATIONS DO MATTER

This investment approach is an offshoot of Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio that maintains a fixed 25% invested in the above four asset categories listed above.  Harry's uncorrelated assets at the time was ground breaking.  Today it is taken for granted.  As much as I was impressed with Harry's work it always made me uncomfortable to always own 25% in each asset. When valuations are at extreme lows a greater percentage is called for and conversely at historical nose bleed levels significantly less (or none).

DYI’s approach working through our four assets and determining with a measure of accuracy the percentage invested depending upon long term valuations.  This is done by calculating our averaging formula for each asset.

If all three assets - gold, stocks, long term bonds, cash is our default position - are at fair or average value then each of the categories will be at 25% of the portfolio just like Browne's Permanent Portfolio.  However as prices move up or down from their respective mean our averaging portfolio will make the adjustment enhancing the overall return.  

Will DYI outperform the market??

Our primary goal is to outperform the Permanent Portfolio first.  Outperform the market?  Maybe? DYI's intentions is a 6% real return - as opposed to Browne's 4% - into your pocket with low volatility as opposed to our fully invested stock market investor.  In closing each of these assets stocks, long term bonds, gold and cash, all have their their moment of fame or shame.  Value players reduce or eliminate the overvalued assets and increase the undervalued; simple as that!     

DYI

 Bubble

Trouble

1966 to 1978

Only those who experienced the heady euphoria of the late 1990s dot-com bubble in tech stocks know what the shift from “can’t lose” confidence to “can’t win” surrender feels like. The chart below illustrates this emotional cycle of confidence rising and fading as bubbles inflate and deflate.

The drift from “can’t lose” to “can’t win” is slow and painful. Our beliefs are stubborn, and we cling on to what worked in the past long after it stopped working. Even if an AI program advises selling everything and walking away from the market for five years, how many of us would take this advice? History says: very few.

The real losses were even bleaker the next time the DJIA again closed above 1,000 on October 12,1982. Investors who held their index portfolios from the peak in 1966 to 1982 lost two-thirds of the purchasing power of their investment. They would not be made whole until the DJIA rose well above 3,000.

 More

Bubble Trouble!

Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities

The delinquency rate of office mortgages that have been securitized into commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) spiked to 11.8% in October, the worst ever, and over a percentage point higher than at the peak of the Financial Crisis meltdown, according to data by Trepp , which tracks and analyzes CMBS.

DYI:  So far this meltdown is confined to the commercial real estate sector.  However this does give an insight into the ongoing or should I say the lack of ongoing economy.  This is far more than simply working from home, as the economy continues to deteriorate expect increase vacancies putting further pressure on mortgage payments.

 

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They must think we are stupid!

 Bubble

Trouble!

Their value is now equal to 83% of the entire size of the US economy.

Top 10 companies: 

Alphabet 

Amazon 

Apple 

Berkshire Hathaway

Broadcom 

J.P. Morgan

Meta

Microsoft 

Nvidia 

Tesla

 This Time is Different?

NOT A COLD DAYS CHANCE IN HELL!

The speculative imagination

As I’ve noted before, investors rediscover the idea of a ‘new era’ at every speculative peak. But the reality is that economic growth is nothing but the constant introduction of new eras. The danger occurs when the new era is so satisfying to the imagination that investors abandon any concern about valuation.

Even when an industry is eventually successful, early speculation can have devastating consequences in the interim. Several large technology companies from the tech bubble have gone on to prosper, but not without the Nasdaq 100 losing 83% between March 2000 and October 2002, with these same companies participating in the collapse. The S&P 500 itself lost half its value during that period, from a lower level of valuation than we observe at present.

Similarly, computer companies became a speculative theme in the late-1960’s, as investors abandoned any concern about valuations. Then that “Go-Go” bubble collapsed, resulting in profound losses even before the 1973-74 collapse took the overall S&P 500 down by 50%, from a lower level of valuation than we observe at present. As Benjamin Graham wrote at the time:

Many – if not most – investments in computer-industry companies other than IBM appear to have been unprofitable. Obvious prospects for physical growth in a business do not translate into obvious profits for investors. 

The habit of relating what is paid to what is being offered is an invaluable trait in investment. The really dreadful losses in the past few years (and on many similar occasions before) were realized in those common-stock issues where the buyer forgot to ask ‘How much?’

– Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor, 1973