Will Bonds Outperform Stocks over the Next Ten Years??

In My Opinion

YES!

Mutual Funds cash levels at all time lows; investor’s sentiment all time high; Shiller PE hovering around 40 times earnings; S&P 500 dividend yield 1.14% compared to long term investment grade corporate bonds yielding 5.68% overtime will force a reduction in risk premium for stocks (stocks will drop in price).

For younger folks who have 20 plus years ahead before retirement IMO long term investment grade corporate bonds will outperform the S&P 500.  As long as this huge spread between dividend yield and bond yield remains bonds are the preferred choice for long term compounding.      

 

Government

Monopoly

Government Power Runs Foul

Civil Asset Forfeiture – One of the ugliest, stone-cold truths of monopoly policing is that the police now steal more each year through civil asset forfeiture than all private criminals combined. Civil asset forfeiture allows police, federal, state and local, to seize – and then keep or sell – any property they allege is involved in a crime. Owners need not ever be arrested or convicted of a crime for their cash, cars, or even real estate to be stolen permanently by the government, and the Institute for Justice² estimates it cost $3000 to fight each case with no guarantee of winning. The ugly truth is that federal law enforcement and the government’s monopoly police frequently steal more each year than all private criminals combined.

Road Piracy

Road Piracy is defined as local governments using their monopoly police to excessively fine motorists in order to raise revenue for the government and the police force.  The problem of local and State “governments” raising revenue on their citizens tax-slaves is exacerbated by red light cameras and photoradar cameras that can be tuned to ticket every single speeder at speeds as low as five miles over the speed limit on roads where the speed limit has been set artificially low specifically to raise revenue.

Everyone wants to be safe and secure in their homes, on the road, and when traveling, there’s obviously a market for personal protection. Right now this market is dominated by a monopoly provider. 

In the absence of a monopoly provider, there’s no reason to think that private companies wouldn’t be able to provide the same service, at lower prices, with more efficiency and without the abuses of the monopoly police.

Mortgage rates is not the problem it is the overall cost of homeownership!

 Recently, mortgage rates have been in a normal range in relationship to inflation

Mortgage interest rates since 1945 show a fascinating journey from the 4-5% range post-WWII, spiking dramatically in the late 70s/early 80s to over 18%, then generally declining to historic lows (around 2.65%) in 2021, before rising again, with major sources like Freddie Mac, FRED, and Bankrate offering charts detailing the 30-year fixed rate, revealing cycles driven by inflation, Federal Reserve actions, and economic conditions, with charts available via St. Louis Fed (FRED) and financial sites like The Mortgage Reports, US News, and Macrotrends. 

Key Trends & Peaks:

• Post-War Stability (1940s-1960s): Rates hovered around 4-5% as the U.S. built up post-war, notes MIDFLORIDA Credit Union and Reddit.
• 1970s Inflation Surge: High inflation from oil crises pushed rates up, peaking near 11-12% by the decade's end, says Rocket Mortgage and US News.
• 1980s Peak: Volcker's Fed-induced recession to fight inflation sent rates soaring, reaching record highs of over 18% in 1981, notes Bankrate and US News.
• 1990s-2000s Decline: Rates gradually fell, breaking below 10% and reaching the 4-6% range, with dips.
• 2008 Crisis & 2020s Lows: Rates dropped to near-zero, hitting all-time lows around 2.65% in 2021 due to economic stimulus, but then climbed back up significantly by 2025. 

 

Charlie Kirk Hoax Explained

Updated version. Sorry but it's not going away...

Gemma O’Doherty Nov 12 Two months since the psyop of the year, the Charlie Kirk hoaxassination continues to be fake boosted by the algorithm and a desperate effort by the Erikatards to keep it real. Ask Grok to tell you where he’s buried, suggesting it’s a little odd we haven’t been told yet, and it will accuse you of being a tin foil hat . Asset Candace isn’t doing much for the cause with her cringe Charlie texts pretending Israel took him out. But some who claim to be sentient still believe the charade, so in the hope of reaching them, here’s the latest round-up of fakery condensed to six minutes. So let me get this straight. Charlie Kirk had no disclosed coroner’s report. No church funeral; no burial site or grave has been disclosed. Erica posts videos of her slobbering over her dead husband’s plastic looking hand at the wake, but no photos from the burial. Head of school security standing on the elevated garage calmly watching right after the shooting and takes no action. No official death certificate. What was the doctor’s name who worked on Charlie at the hospital? Where is the autopsy report? No ballistics report other than a fantastical story about a magical bullet that would make JFK’s bullet jealous. Not a single credible eyewitness on the record. Video footage of chairs morphing through tables. Impossible video anomalies like the bullet wound not moving when Charlie’s body moves proving he was not actually shot or used a squib device to fake it. It proves a real time rotoscoping AI overlay was used. Is it not odd that there was no bullet exit wound from a 30.06 bullet that would leave a hole the size of a watermelon on a buffalo? How do you explain YouTube continually showing the most gory footage when they never allow things far less gory? Think trauma-based mind control and an award-winning widow already taking over Charlie’s show. Why was the entire crime scene destroyed within hours erasing vital evidence? Why were there no paramedics on the scene? When Charlie was carried out, people were filming in strange places and not following the action. Kind of like they are staged there to get a specific shot and then move on. How come the men carrying Charlie did not have any blood on them? Why was Charlie Kirk’s body removed and flown out on Air Force Two? Why did Donald Trump pardon a Navy SEAL killer whose shadow looms over this case? Was the stadium mysteriously booked by Turning Point four months before his death? Do you think it was just a coincidence that the memorial with 80,000 hearts excreting louche energy was right at the time of the lunar eclipse? Do you find it odd that Erika Kirk was wiping her non existent tears and with perfect make-up applied at her beloved husband’s circus memorial? How was a massive high-tech stadium memorial produced in only 11 days? Why do multiple women publicly appear as Erika Kirk raising questions of identity? Where are the birth certificates for their children? School records? No names revealed, no faces ever shown. If you are claiming that you are private people, why take photos and videos of the backs of your children’s head to show publicly? Where is a video of Charlie playing with his children at a birthday party or picnic or any other family setting? Why do freemasonic and satanic symbols surround this tragedy with chilling precision - Kash Patel specifically pointing out it took 33 hours to capture the killer? Do you find it odd that two weeks prior to this event South Park did an episode of Charlie Kirk getting attacked? Do you find it disturbing that Charlie Kirk, who denounced drinking alcohol in his Christianity preachings, was one of the early heavy investors in a company called Happy Dad which makes a hard seltzer where he made millions? Is it weird that there is no video of the alleged shooter Tyler Robinson taking the shot?The footage released starts when he is halfway across the roof in an impossible time frame for when the alleged shot was fired and a shadow disappears for no reason. This reminds me of the Selenelian lunar eclipse. It’s impossible. Why do all the family photos of Tyler Robinson look like they are photoshopped and Tyler is always on the outside? Isn’t it interesting Kash Patel fired many of the heads of the FBI in that area days before the shooting? Tucker Carlson, who was allegedly a good friend, could not stop laughing at Charlie’s WWE Stadium memorial service. Do you find it interesting that Charlie sold his house eight months ago for $6.5 million? Is it curious that Erika started a non-profit child rescue working alongside the United States military in Romania and during that time Romania had a massive uptick in child trafficking. She worked alongside Colonel Busher who was charged with child sex trafficking and prostitution. If the father of your two young children was just brutally murdered for the world to see days ago, do you leave them home with the nanny while you go on podcasts grinning from ear to ear? Is it not curious that a 17-year-old first time Donald Trump beauty pageant contestant won and now Trump appointed a top Attorney General woman who has no experience who was also in his beauty pageant? This is only a fraction of the clues and evidence on this psyop. For those of you brave enough to look at the evidence while removing the preconceived emotions, the conclusion is undeniable.

As individual investors who have a limited time to financially “Put it all together” whether for retirement or other goals market valuations is crucial for our success. 

The past 10 years (and especially since 2009) we’ve experienced a scorching hot stock market that has pushed valuations to nose bleed levels.  Add on the fact that the past ten year return almost hit 15% average annual return expecting another redo is investing by looking in the rear view mirror as this would require stock valuations to almost double from history making levels!

Points of ‘secular’ undervaluation such as 1922, 1932, 1949, 1974 and 1982 typically occurred about 50% below historical mean valuations, and were associated with subsequent 10-year nominal total returns approaching 20% annually. 

By contrast, valuations similar to 1929, 1965 and 2000 were followed by weak or negative total returns over the following decade. That’s the range where we find ourselves today. 

If the Dow Jones Industrial Average breeches the 50,000 level expect Wall Street cheerleaders pushing their talking points for stock ownership in order to “off load” as much as possible their high valuation priced shares.  This has already begun with major players such as Warren Buffet’s corporation pulling into his highest cash position.

 Vaccines

Independent studies despite institutional barriers

Miraculously, over the past couple of decades, a handful of independent researchers—despite great cost to their careers—have conducted studies comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated children. The results are consistent: unvaccinated children are much healthier.

Career over children

The 2020 Zervos study at Henry Ford is particularly revealing. Dr. Zervos admitted on hidden camera that the study was sound—but he couldn’t publish it due to career risk.

Consider the context: he was already established, financially secure, near retirement, and had explicitly promised to publish the study no matter the results. Despite all this, he still caved to institutional pressure.

If someone with his freedom couldn’t speak the truth, what hope is there for younger doctors with mortgages, student loans, and careers to protect?

Conclusion

There are only two reasons parents vaccinate their children: either they are misinformed, or they are not being honest with themselves.

If you want to truly understand the impact of vaccines, the only meaningful comparison is vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. The absence of proper vax-unvax studies by regulators and manufacturers speaks volumes. Their refusal to conduct them is criminal.

Every study that has been done tells the same story: unvaccinated children are healthier.

There’s no way around this.

Sentiment Changes

 

U.S. Stocks at this current juncture for the market to return to its mean would require a 50% decline!  At bargain range will require a 65% decline.  U.S. Stocks remain MASSIVELY OVERVALUED!

Sentiment Changes

Smart Money - Buys Aggressively!

Capitulation

Despondency

Max-Pessimism 

Depression 

Hope - Silver F

Relief *Market returns to Mean  - Short Term Notes & Bills or MMF

Smart Money - Buys the Dips!

Optimism - Swiss Treasury Securities  

Media Attention - Gold

Enthusiasm

Smart Money - Sells the Rallies!

Thrill

Greed

Delusional

Max-Optimism  Residential Real Estate   - Stocks 

Denial of Problem   -BitCoin 

Anxiety 

Fear

Desperation - Long Term Bonds

Current Economic Conditions

Prosperity - Moderate

Recession - Shallow

Deflation - None

Inflation - Moderate

Economic Choices

None

Shallow

Moderate

Prominent

Extreme 

During this run up in stock prices if the Dow Jones hits 50,000 I would expect major cheering by Wall Street marketers to aggressively pump up the virtues of stock ownership for an opportunity to dump (sell off) their massively overvalued merchandize.   

Measured by wages, housing affordability is now worse than at the peak of the 2005-07 Housing Bubble #1.

 

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 12/1/25

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

42% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

29% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **

 29% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.

"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:

Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]

Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........40.42
Bond Rate...5.17%

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

2.00+ Stocks on the give-away-table!

1.75+ Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30+ Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

0.50 or less:  Stock Market Crash Alert!  

Purchase 30 year Treasury Bonds! 

Current EYC Ratio: 0.53(rounded)

As of  12-1-25
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com

Bond Rate is the rate as reported by

Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX)

DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.

Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

%
Stocks & Bonds

Allocation Formula

12-1-2025
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]

Formula's answer determines bond allocation.

Current PE10.....40.42

Avg. PE10...........17.31

Core Bond Allocation:  139% 

% Stock Allocation     0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation  100% (rounded)

Current Asset: Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade Bond Fund   

Logic behind this approach:

--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 

--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.

Current Allocation:

Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund

Possible Allocations to Bonds vs Stocks:

Bonds %

100%+  Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund 

99% to 65% Wellesley Income Fund

64% to 35% 1/2 Wellesley Income Fund - 1/2 Wellington Fund

34% to 20%  Equity Income Fund

19% to 0%  Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund

  

DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

A value based allocation strategy

February 19, 2010 by John Kingham

 Bubble

Land

If this legislation passes this will be an interest generating 50 year gift to mortgage bankers keeping Americans ever deeper in debt!

A 50-Year Mortgage Does Nothing for “Affordability,” Is a Terrible Deal for Homeowners and a Superb Deal for Banks & Investors

by Wolf Richter • Nov 11, 2025

Monthly payment for a 50-year mortgage of $500,000 would be only $91 lower than of a 30-year mortgage, but homeowners would get crushed by nearly $1 million in interest.

 

 Consumer Sentiment

&

I Bonds

Consumer Sentiment Collapses to Near Record Low

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.3 in early November, down from 53.6 in October, one of the worst readings since the survey began in the late 1970s. Yes, even worse than most months during the 2008 crisis. Only the brief collapse in mid-2022, when inflation shocked almost everyone, came close. It’s a striking reminder of how heavy the public mood has turned. 

People are worried about prices again, about rates staying high, about whether the job market might finally crack. You can almost feel the fatigue setting in. And when sentiment drops to this kind of level, it usually takes time, sometimes years, for confidence to recover.

The 3 biggest drivers for consumer sentiment collapse: 

1.)  Residential real estate whether buying or renting affordability.

2.)  Sky high secondary educational costs causing massive student loans indebtedness.

3.)  Anything related to health care primarily the overall costs and growing understanding of fraudulent (fictitious) diseases and unnecessary treatments.  COVID SCAM is the primary example.

Series I Savings Bonds: Good Time to Buy?

How I-Bonds Pay Interest

I-Bonds combine two rates: a fixed rate (which does not change for the life of the bond) and an inflation rate (which resets every six months). For the issuance period from November 2025 to April 2026, the fixed rate is 0.90% and the inflation component rate (six-month rate) is 1.56%. These combine to give an annual composite rate of about 4.03%. That’s for this specific issuance period, mind you. The inflation piece will change in six months.

The fixed rate stays with you for the entire 30-year life of the bond. The inflation component adjusts every six months based on the CPI. 

Series I bonds have tax-deferred interest, meaning you can choose to defer paying federal income tax on the interest until the bond is redeemed or reaches final maturity. This allows the interest to continue earning interest for up to 30 years. The interest is also exempt from state and local income taxes.

Holding Period and Maturity

The bonds mature in 30 years, meaning you earn interest up to that point. But there are some restrictions. Restrictions:

• Have to hold at least one year
• If sell within the first five years, you forfeit the last three months of interest. 

Where to Buy

You purchase I-Bonds directly from the U.S. government via the Bureau of the Fiscal Service’s website, Treasury Direct. 

I-Bonds vs. Other Fixed Income: Good Time to Buy?

• Compared with Money Market: Money Market is more liquid. But it's not pegged with inflation (or at least not as sensitive as I Bond). 
• Compared with TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities):

  TIPS are probably the closest comparison to I-Bonds. Both offer inflation protection. But the mechanics are different. Right now, a 10-year TIPS has a real yield of about 1.79% much higher than I-Bond fixed rate 0.9%.  But TIPs has downside: to sell before maturity, you might actually lose principal depending on market conditions. There is also tax headache for TIPs. 

DYI COMMENT:  With nose bleed levels for the U.S. stock market I Bonds is an saving/investment alternative for long term money.  Obviously this will depend upon the individuals financial planning needs.  

For those in the higher tax brackets with Federal taxes differed and exempt from State/Local taxes and zero market risk to principal it is an effective add on to any portfolio.

Simply knowing what exist and how they work gives you more ammunition to full fill your savings/investment goals.