Disclaimer

 Bear Market Alert

All

DYI’s Indicators are Negative!

This will put enormous downside pressure on stocks as alternative investments provide higher future estimated returns!

*****************************************

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 6/1/22

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

50% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

50% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **

 0% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

 ************************************

************************************

Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.

"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:

Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]

Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........32.31
Bond Rate...4.10%

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

1.75 plus: Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30 Plus: Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

Current EYC Ratio: 0.83(rounded)

As of  6-1-22
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com

Bond Rate is the rate as reported by

Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX)

DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.

Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

%
Stocks & Bonds

Allocation Formula

6-1-22
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]

Formula's answer determines bond allocation.

Current PE10.....32.31

Avg. PE10...........16.95

% Stock Allocation    0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation 100% (rounded) 

Logic behind this approach:

--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 

--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.        

  

DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

A value based allocation strategy

February 19, 2010 by John Kingham

6/01/22
Updated Monthly

Oil Prices: 
6/01/17......$48.36

6/01/22......$116.58   

Up 141%(rounded)
(oil prices approximately five years earlier due to weekends & holidays)
West Texas Intermediate prices   

 OIL INDICATOR:  NEGATIVE!  

Oil prices are well known for their volatility in the short term, longer term due to dwindling reserves energy prices are in a secular bull market.  Technologies such as fracking will extend the life of oil fields but major new discoveries arrive at a snails pace far slower than the world's growth.  

As long as prices rise in a slow and orderly pace our economy can adjust to those changes, however if prices spike (international tensions, war etc.) high energy costs behave as a massive deflationary tax. This will send our economy tumbling down and very possibly the U.S. stock market.

If oil prices rise greater than 75% from five years earlier, investors at that time should shift their portfolio geared towards deflationary times.  This would be an oil indicator as negative.

If oil prices rise from five years earlier less than 10% or drop then the inflationary play is in effect; a positive for economic growth along with possible higher stock prices.

Where to find five year earlier oil prices?  Alaska Department of Revenue    

Oil indicator positive                
  5%  High-Yield Corporate Bonds
10%  REIT's
10%  Energy
10%  P.M.'s
65%  Small Caps
  0%  Lt. Gov't Bonds

************************************

Or...Investors desiring simplicity

100% Vanguard's Wellington Fund symbol VWELX

On average 65% stocks - 35% bonds

Oil indicator negative
  5%  REIT's
10%  Energy

10%  P.M's
10%  Small Caps
65%  Lt. Gov't Bonds

************************************

Or...Investors desiring simplicity

100% Vanguard's Wellesley Income Fund symbol VWINX

On average 35% stocks - 65% bonds

Vanguard Funds

REIT's
REIT Index Admiral  VGSLX

Energy
Energy Fund  VGENX

Precious Metals (P.M.'s)
Global Capital Cycles Fund VGPMX

Small Caps
Small Cap Value Index Admiral  VSIAX

High-Yield Corporate Bonds
High-Yield Corporate Bond Fund VWEHX

Long Term Government Bonds
Long-Term Government Bond Index Admiral  VLGSX

Disclaimer

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

COVID in the Dull Drums; Ukraine on the Down Hill Slide; Department of Homeland Security with Non-Stop Staged, Faked, No One Shot Mass Shootings!

 Identify

Staged and Faked

Mass Shootings

Helpful Hints

False Flag Event Identification:

1) Media cannot get facts straight. Cannot detail exact weapon.

2) Assailant is a loner between the ages of 18-29.

3) Story does not add up. Numbers change dramatically.

4) Assailant conducts perfect massacre without any training.

5) Assailant ends up dead or in a mental hospital.

6) Mugshot ready with no prior record.

7) Victim portraits ready instantly, with loads of detailed background stories.

8) Media talks about the event 24/7.

9) Gun Control is the center of every interview or statement (especially interviews with grieving parents/families of victims).

10) Happens in a "safe place" so nowhere is safe now. With no motive that applies to that specific place.

11) Assailant has social media posts that tell you the motive (or there's even a manifesto!) so no actual police work has to happen. Bad guys don't usually do that - but that is not brought up in the media.

12) Chances are good that there was a "active shooter drill" in the area, or at that location, recently.

Bonus: All victims die within mysterious short frame time to bolster headlines.

Bonus bonus: Media and politicians will never say - if the adults that were there were armed…

Please add anything not mentioned…

Miles Mathis is on Fire with another expose that should circulate around the world. It is an understatement that this is a must Read!

 COVID

A Crime Against Humanity

Alex Jones Sells it as Real

by Miles Mathis

May 15, 2022

Today Jones is claiming he predicted the false flag market shooting in Buffalo. But he means something different by false flag here than I mean, or than he used to mean. He is not telling you this is a staged event, as I am. He is telling you this a manufactured event, meaning it is not what it seems. He is telling you it was not pulled by some lone nut, but by the government, to create division. But he is selling it as real in the sense that people were actually killed. He is telling his audience the government is killing its own citizens in these manufactured events. Though he knows it isn't. 

Remember, he used to sell these events as false flags, but back then he meant that they were fake. The deaths were faked, as at Sandy Hook. No one died. Mike Adams at NaturalNews did that, too. 

DYI:  Alex Jones - Mike Adams - Joe Rogan internet based biggest controlled op and disinformation sites currently.  All based to give just enough truth to suck in the uninitiated then omit the real truth.  They are the main stream propaganda outlets attempting to scoop up those who have fled the legacy media.  Their mission remains the same and it is this:

The main stream media does NOT report real events, it subsists to entertain or titillate and propagandize the masses as diversions from real events and their consequences.  

Continuing with Miles:

He used to sell these events as total fakes, where no one died. But about five years ago they both flipped a switch and started selling them as partially real. They were still manufactured, in that they were staged by the government instead of by private citizens acting independently, but they were now real in that real people were being killed. Mike Adams took down his old papers where he showed no one was killed, like in the Boston Marathon, and switched to real deaths, as in his analysis of Las Vegas a few years later. Alex Jones has done the same thing, pretending to be forced to apologize for his Sandy Hook coverage due to a lawsuit, and now selling it as real. And in this Buffalo event, he is screaming at black people that they need to be packing heat whenever they go to the grocery store, to protect themselves from “the deep state”. He actually says that in his latest rant today.

So we see him playing his part in the current fear and division creation, controlling the opposition. His assignment has always been to create fear, while seeming to play the other side. This just proves it beyond any possible doubt. Telling black people to arm themselves at the grocery store is so far beyond the pale. Like me, Jones should be trying to defuse this bomb, but he is just throwing gasoline on the fire.

But I tell you again: this event, just like ALL the others, is fake. It was staged by the government, yes, but no one was killed. It is a Hollywood movie and nothing more. It is fiction sold as real. 

They are trying to create division and fear, because they want us fighting each other.

 This is the only way they can avoid revolution at this point, after the vaccine crime against humanity. 

They have murdered millions of people in cold blood, on purpose, while making huge profits.

They have lied to you about everything. They have locked you down and masked you and your children for no reason, other than to coerce you into taking a deadly vaccine. They have stolen trillions of dollars from you and given you nothing but mayhem and death. They are now desperate to avoid prosecution, which is why they have started a fake war in Ukraine and relit the abortion issue. They want men fighting women, blacks fighting whites, and gays fighting straights, all to keep us from coming after them. I suggest you don't fall for it. They think you are stupid Gentiles who have always fallen for their schemes and lies and conjobs. Are you? Will you?

DYI:  All of the divide and conquer faked events along with the economic manipulation is a crime however they are secondary in importance.  What scares these so called elites are their massive crimes against humanity of harms and deaths from poison shots all to financially benefit themselves.  The theft to taxpayers around the world is in the multiple of trillions.  The crimes against humanity is their Achilles heel where the only fit punishment is DEATH.  They know this and that is why we will continue to see non-stop divide and conquer distractions.     

Continuing with Miles:

To help you decide, I will tell you what else they are faking. They are faking the food and fuel shortages, and supply chain problems. This is again to add to the mayhem and to keep your eyes off other things. They want your eyes on inflation and food shortages and crop failures and bird flu and millions of chickens dead, to keep your eyes off the vaccine crime against humanity and the latest pillage of the worldwide treasuries. 

In fact, the fake fuel shortages were planned as payback to the oil companies, who lost billions in 2020-21 due to Covid. But they knew going in they would lose billions, since they were promised they would make it all back and more in 2022, when this fake supply chain issue would arise. So all these scarcities are manufactured. None of them are real. The Phoenician Navy is holding up all shipping routes on purpose, to manufacture shortages. We are being told food processing plants are being torched or kamikazied by planes, though they aren't. We are being told millions of chickens are being killed, though they aren't. We are being told so many things that aren't true, all to manufacture mayhem. All these problems would evaporate tomorrow if the governors decided to quit manufacturing them. 

You are literally living in a false matrix created by the governors, brought to you through your TV and internet. All to herd you, keep you panicked, and keep you divided. All to soak you and con you and rob you blind, as you have been robbed for millennia. You could wise up today, and I suggest you get to it.

Don't believe Alex would herd you? Go to his sidebar today, where he has his poll for the week. It asks, Which part of the economic collapse concerns you the most? 

1. crypto crash 2. housing bubble 3. inflation 4. high gas prices

As I have told you before, the right answer is never on his lists. The right answer is: the fact that the economic collapse is manufactured in all ways. And even that is a diversion, since all these things are manufactured to keep your eyes off reality. All those things are piddling compared to the ongoing crime against humanity these people are pulling against you: the millions of deaths from vaccines and other drugs; the theft of trillions of dollars from worldwide treasuries by these same thieves and liars; the splitting of the sexes and murder of the family; the wanton and ever-accelerating destruction of the middle class; the absolute obliteration of society and all human connections; the rape of the Earth and all her resources; the death of art, science, morality, dignity, honor, truth, and beauty. 

Thank You Miles

DYI

Miles Mathis "knocks it out of the park" explaining what is happening to America in five simple pages. Below is an excerpt from that article.

 

The

Moral & Financial

Degradation of America

Continues

From the desk of Miles Mathis

First published May 3, 2022

 As with the Ukraine War, doesn't anyone think the timing of this Roe v. Wade thing is a bit suspicious? Didn't they both seem to sort of come out of nowhere, just in time to push other topics to the back pages? Just when the governors seemed to be in serious trouble after the vaccine crime against humanity, suddenly these huge stories conveniently fell from the clouds to steal all headlines.

Just think it about. Say you are one of the governors facing an incipient revolution from a middle class sick of being preyed upon, lied to, and used as human guinea pigs in Big Pharma experiments. Say you have truckers starting major strikes, millions of people collapsing and dying from gene therapies falsely sold as vaccines, and an economy in freefall due to mass looting. Say the people are waking up to your games across the board and aren't even tuning into your discredited propaganda machines like CNN, The New York Times, or other major outlets. Say the numbers of independent sources and reporters are viral, and that the rebellion is just one big event from snowballing out of your control. 

What do you do?

Well, you do the only thing you have ever known how to do: you bluff and misdirect. You lie your little asses off. You double or triple down on all the old lies and promote new ones as fast as you can think of them.

Which is of course is exactly what we are seeing.

And to get eyes off you, you dredge up all the most contentious old topics, hoping to rekindle any and all lingering wedge issues. Your only hope of avoiding a revolution against you is to incite a civil war, getting the people to fight one another instead of toppling you. You must push the divide and conquer strategy to its ultimate limits, using every set of magicians' mirrors you have. You need men fighting women, blacks fighting whites, gays fighting straights, old fighting young, and any other division you can manufacture at short notice. Ukraine fighting Russia, Catholics fighting Protestants, Christians fighting Muslims, even Asians fighting blacks.

If they could they would bring back north fighting south, Union versus Confederacy.

The only thing you won't see them mentioning much is Jews, since that hits way too close to home. Best ignore that wedge. [Also best to minimize the rich versus poor wedge, of course, since that is really what this is about. If you hear anything about that, it is that the rich are already paying too much in taxes. No seriously, that is the line, even from places like Infowars and Zerohedge.]

Jumping to the last paragraph:

But this time not all the chaos is manufactured. 911 tore the curtain and a lot of people are seeing through the old veils.

People are coming to realize they are being played as suckers in this grand theater, and they are sick of it.

The current conjob isn't being run for the same reason as the Reagan conjob, since the real instability in the system in the late 1970s was far less than now.

The current conjob was rushed into print to answer a crisis like none before:

The vaccine crime against humanity.

They are desperately trying to keep your eyes off the bodies piling up all around you, but it can't work. No amount of fake wars in Ukraine or fake Supreme Court rulings or fake alien invasions can bring millions of people back to life. This is many orders of magnitude larger and more obvious than previous medical murders, where the poison was introduced far more covertly.

In this case the poison was mandated in broad daylight, with huge coercion, almost at gunpoint.

We were all there and we all saw it happen. We are now seeing our family members and neighbors die like flies, while they try to tell it is due to solar flares or swamp gas or something. The anger is building even as I write, and not everyone is going to agree to take Fentanyl or anti-depressants to deal with it. Not everyone is just going to conveniently commit suicide, so that this never reaches a reckoning.

Thank You Miles Mathis

DYI

Stocks & Bonds Remain at Nose Bleed Valuations in General. There has been Decline in the Mega Tech Stocks but they Continue to be Overvalued!

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 5/1/22

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

50% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

50% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **

 0% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

 This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

**************************************

**************************************

 Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.

"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:

Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]

Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........32.53
Bond Rate...3.86%

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

1.75 plus: Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30 Plus: Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

Current EYC Ratio: 0.88(rounded)

As of  5-1-22
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com

Bond Rate is the rate as reported by

Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX)

DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.

Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

******************************************

******************************************

%
Stocks & Bonds

Allocation Formula

5-1-22
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]

Formula's answer determines bond allocation.

Current PE10.....32.53

Avg. PE10...........16.94

% Stock Allocation    0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation 100% (rounded) 

Logic behind this approach:

--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 

--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.        

  

DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

A value based allocation strategy

February 19, 2010 by John Kingham

DYI

The Southern Invasion from Mexica & Latin America Continues Unabated and Now at Warp Speed! Hastening the Collapse of the American Republic!

 Crises

At the

Mexican Border

Massive immigration: humane or an invasion at the end of the Empire?

by Jon Rappoport The American Immigration Council reports that, as of 2019, there were 44.9 million immigrants living in the US. In case you’ve been living in a cave, the Biden administration is trying its best to make the southern border a sieve. But of course, this is a humane act. It has to be. Otherwise, it’s a plan to overwhelm public services, ramp up the Democratic vote, and generally stage a soft invasion whose result will be catastrophic. For many people, 44.9 million immigrants—or the other figure I found a few months ago, 50 million—are not nearly enough. 44.9 million reflects nothing more than stone cold indifference to suffering. “Humane” and “caring” mean there must be NO CEILING on immigration. No end to it. In fact, you can find churches across America whose pastors and parishioners will tell you exactly that. These proud people are evidently tuned into a special broadcast by God or a special edition of the Bible. How THEY FEEL is the most important factor. To them. Beyond that, no thinking is necessary. Any suffering of any kind anywhere in the world that might be mitigated by living in the US has one remedy: open borders. And I’m not even talking about the hordes of American Lefties for whom virtue signaling is a profession. For those credentialed people, life itself IS unlimited immigration. As I’ve written before, and will write again, open borders is an elite operation, and one of its purposes is supporting the transport of drugs into the US— A trillion-dollar business involving the washing of money through major banks. The drugs ruin and kill huge numbers of people here in America. The drugs are extremely effective weapons of war. Those who physically survive do so with addled minds. If you need to bring yourself up to speed on this, talk to an honest DEA agent who has seen the effects up close and personal. Or someone who has lost a relative. Drugs are taking down America. This has been going on for 50 years. But again, what’s important about open borders is how people FEEL about them. What open borders REPRESENTS to them. What open borders SYMBOLIZES. All the “me” factors. And even then, the FEELING has an interesting limit. How many families in America do you think have taken in at least three immigrants to live with them—you know, PERSONALLY AND PERMANENTLY? Much of American Culture is now being performed like a stage play, and the play is often by proxy, on social media. That’s where the action is. This is very good for the enemies of America. It means millions of people can support destructive issues like open borders via Twitter; so there is no real involvement. Which makes activism easy. Which makes passivity and blindness to what is actually happening easy. What does “enemies of America” mean? It means the people who want to take down what is left of individual freedom—including the 1st and 2nd Amendments and private property—and what is left of the free market, in which people actually earn a living through their own independent efforts—substituting, instead, control by government. Globalists view America as the last bastion against a system of planetary governance. Whenever possible, they applaud American foreign policy operations that seek to extend the Nationalistic Empire; Those operations sooner or later will blow back on America and make its situation and standing in the world more dire. Hastening its collapse. But there is a difference between individual freedom and the free market, on the one hand…and the American Empire, on the other. Differentiating between the two, and untangling the former from the latter—this is a herculean task. Ron Paul understood it. Millions of people who have misplaced their faith in Donald Trump understand it. Untangling the core values of America from the Empire of America is made all the harder by tons and tons and tons of physically and mentally destructive drugs coming up through open borders, and by many of the migrants who are coming here and overloading the system of public services, gaming the system, and voting for the system. If you can’t see that, look harder. Thank Jon DYI

As the Vaccine Deaths Pile up Dog and Pony Distractions will Ramp Up at Light Speed!

 The

Slap

Heard Around the World

Oscar Winners:

Booster for Oscar's Sagging Ratings

Promote Pfizer's New Drug for Alopecia

Distract News Media & Public 

from COVID-19 Harms and Deaths Vaccine

Miles Mathis

First published March 29, 2022 This is just my opinion, as usual, based on internet research anyone can do 

At first I promised myself I wouldn't write anything about this, since that is just following their script. They want us talking about this to divert from other things. Not to divert from the bad ratings of the Oscars, as some are saying, but to divert from far larger issues. All the fakes being sold now, including the fake war in Ukraine, the fake January 6 trials, the fake trannie in the pool, the fake judge being fake interviewed for the fake Supreme Court, and

 all the other fakes, are meant to keep eyes off the vaccine crime against humanity 

millions of people dying worldwide from this atrocity. 

That should be on page one every day, but it isn't even making the back page, after the comics. 

Pfizer is making sure of that.

So I was going to boycott this Oscars fake event, assuming that many could see it confirmed my contention that everything else was faked. The Phoenicians could hardly have done me a bigger favor than to stage this thing and then drop conspicuous clues it was all a big conjob. That photo above is just the most obvious clue, since both men are grinning madly right after this allegedly vicious public attack on a very small man by a much larger man. That one photo blows the whole thing. Other obvious clues are that the show didn't cut to commercial, that no security got involved, that Smith was not escorted out, and that within seconds Rock was selling it as the greatest thing ever. 

So it was not only staged, it was staged poorly. Smith pulled it together for his acceptance speech later—which was obviously prewritten as well—where he showed off a bit of the top-notch acting he just collected the award for, breaking into very believable tears. They could have used him at Sandy Hook.

Thanks Miles

DYI

U.S. Stocks Month After Month Remain at Nose Bleed Levels...Its All Fun and Games Till Someone Gets Hurt!

 Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 4/1/22

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

50% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

50% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **

 0% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

**************************************

Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.

"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:

Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]

Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........36.71
Bond Rate...3.41%

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

1.75 plus: Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30 Plus: Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

Current EYC Ratio: 0.88(rounded)

As of  4-1-22
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com

Bond Rate is the rate as reported by

Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX)

DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.

Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

%
Stocks & Bonds

Allocation Formula

4-1-22
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]

Formula's answer determines bond allocation.

Current PE10.....36.71

Avg. PE10...........16.93

% Stock Allocation    0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation 100% (rounded) 

Logic behind this approach:

--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 

--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.        

  

DYI

The Formula.

A value based allocation strategy

February 19, 2010 by John Kingham

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