Interesting Chart!

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 4/1/25

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

43% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

35% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **

 22% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.   

Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.

"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:

Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]

Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........34.99
Bond Rate...5.32%

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

2.00+ Stocks on the give-away-table!

1.75+ Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30+ Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

0.50 or less:  Stock Market Crash Alert!  

Purchase 30 year Treasury Bonds! 

Current EYC Ratio: 0.59(rounded)

As of  4-1-25
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com

Bond Rate is the rate as reported by

Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX)

DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.

Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

%
Stocks & Bonds

Allocation Formula

4-1-2025
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]

Formula's answer determines bond allocation.

Current PE10.....34.99

Avg. PE10...........17.22

Core Bond Allocation:  118% 

% Stock Allocation     0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation  100% (rounded)

Current Asset: Vanguard Long-Term Investment Grade Bond Fund   

Logic behind this approach:

--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 

--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.

Current Allocation:

Vanguard Long Term Investment Grade Bond Fund

Possible Allocations to Bonds vs Stocks:

Bonds %

100%+  Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund 

99% to 65% Wellesley Income Fund

64% to 35% 1/2 Wellesley Income Fund - 1/2 Wellington Fund

34% to 0%  Equity Income Fund

  

DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

A value based allocation strategy

February 19, 2010 by John Kingham

Yet Another Study Reveals the Link Between Quack-Cines and Autism

Yet more research finds that childhood quack-cines are likely to be responsible for almost 80% of cases of autism: hardly surprising when you inject heavy metals directly into their bloodstreams

Gemma O’Doherty

Mar 10, 2025

The mainstream media have known for decades about the link between quack-cines and autism but have gone to strenuous and sickening lengths to hide it because their paymasters are the pharma companies that manufacture the toxic jabs. Just think how many children might not have ended up with autism and other debilitating illnesses if journalists had been doing their job scrutinizing these giant corporations - many of which have criminal records.

DYI QUICK COMMENT:  I don’t know of one pharma company (unless just recently formed) that hasn’t ever in their existence not to be fined for criminal behavior.  Back to Gemma.

But the evidence that quack-cines cause autism continues to pile up despite their desperate attempts to cover it up. Another new study has found that childhood injections are likely to be responsible for 80% of cases of autism. The study ( https://perma.cc/48KV-BH4B) which was carried out using the Medicaid database of Florida, found that quack-cinated children have a 170% higher chance of being diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder compared to unquack-cinated children. They also have a 212% greater chance of developing a range of other neurodevelopmental disorders including attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), epilepsy/seizures and learning disorders.

The study found that 85% of children's learning disabilities in the US are caused by the CDC’s quack-cination plan, which the new Health Secretary Robert F(raud) Kennedy Jr fully supports.

Even though governments, manufacturers and the medical profession are unwilling to acknowledge it, every single study ever published in the literature peer-reviewed by experts has shown that unquack-cinated children are healthier in all areas than their quack-cinated peers.

 The

Real Reason

Behind the Russian Ukraine War!

All in one simple paragraph!

The Real Enemy of the American people Is Not Russia, but the EU Regime in Brussels

By Vasko Kohlmayer

February 21, 2025

Russia, on the other hand, poses no threat to the American people. Its actions in Ukraine were provoked by the West. It was in response to the expansionist push of NATO toward the Russian borders. This push was largely driven by the American foreign policy elite backed by America’s corporate interests who hope to topple the less-than-cooperative Putin so that they can plunder Russia’s vast natural wealth.

 When is

The Best Time

To Buy a House?

DYI:  When your payment is no greater than 25% of your income at the maximum.  The best is equal to or less than 15% of your gross income.  This will require a down payment greater than 20% despite this difficult task its benefit is piece of mind with a payment that can be easily maintained.  The other route (plus your down payment) is buying during economic downturns; however when the next opportunity arrives is unknown. 

 Dow to Gold Ratio

Long Term Valuation Tool

DYI:  The Dow to gold ratio will let you know when the major turning points for stocks vs precious metal and other natural resources.  The year 2000 the Dow Jones Industrial average was at a staggering 43 to 1 – [Dow 11723 ÷ $275 = 43(rounded) to 1.  The average since 1900 is around 10 to 1.  This makes the Dow 330% above its average thus showing how overvalued stocks were (especially high tech) and how cheap gold was at that time (under $300 per troy ounce). 

Gold today is now over $3000 per troy ounce and yet despite that massive rise the Dow to Gold ratio is currently at 14 to 1 (rounded) highlighting that gold still has room to move up much higher. 

IMO the Dow to Gold Ratio when this super cycle is completed gold will be massively overvalued and stocks, once again, on the give-away-table just as stocks were in the early 1980’s.  The Dow to Gold ratio will end the gold run around 3 to 1 or even possibly 1 to 1.

DYI will be selling gold/silver systematically and buying systematically stocks with absurdly low PE’s and wonderfully high dividend yields setting up for huge gains in the future.

 Prices

Rolling Over?

The median priced home in the U.S. hit $430,000 as opposed to median yearly rental at $24,000.  This is a Price to Rental Ratio at an elevated 17.92!  Anytime this ratio is above 15 buying is overvalued thus renting is the better deal.   

Many astute homeowners and investors over the past two years selling off of their properties.  However they will only do this if the gain at a minimum is over (after all expenses for selling) $500,000+!  At $700,000+ it is a no brainer!  Please note those who live in the east or west coast (and Canadian's) you will need to adjust your price to yearly income ratio as these figures are U.S. median prices and rents.

 Medical

Credit Cards

30%+ Interest Rates!

How Doctors Are Pushing Medical Credit Cards on Patients

January 14, 2025, Time Magazine

Medical credit cards may seem like a boon to both patients and providers. Doctors’ offices can get paid up front without needing to chase down clients for billing or insurance reimbursement, while customers can get approved on the spot to finance procedures they might not otherwise be able to afford. The “deferred interest” component, which touts zero-interest loans during the promotional window, may also appeal to customers at a moment when interest rates are high. CareCredit is not the only medical credit card—others include ScratchPay, Alphaeon Credit, and HealthiPlan.

Some cards can come with startling terms and hidden costs, consumer-protection advocates say. If consumers don’t pay off the balance of their card in the promotional period, they are charged all the interest that would have accrued since the original purchase date, at rates that can top 30%. CareCredit is the subject of a lawsuit seeking class-action status that was filed in New York in August 2024. It argues the card’s interest rates—32.99% in May 2024—violate state usury laws, which cap interest rates on loan payments. (Synchrony told TIME it could not comment about that lawsuit.)

Zhao’s experience is not just the story of a bad encounter with a medical provider. It highlights the way medical credit cards are increasingly pushed on patients across America as the costs of health, dental, and veterinary procedures rise. 

CareCredit had 12 million cardholders and 270,000 participating providers in 2024, up from 4.4 million cardholders and 177,000 participating providers a decade prior, according to a May 2023 report by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). “The growing promotion and use of medical cards and installment loans,” the CFPB wrote, “can increase the financial burden on patients who may pay more than they otherwise would pay and may compromise medical outcomes.” Revenue for the medical patient-financing industry was $15.3 billion in 2023, according to a report by the research firm IBISWorld, which found that as health care becomes less affordable due to rising premiums and insurance gaps, more patients are turning to medical loans or installment plans.

DYI:  As we all know so well that medical costs have been rising decade after decade far faster than the rate of inflation.  Once this peaks the industrial medical complex will experience a major recession as their customers will be tapped out unable to take on any more additional debt.  Debt saturation due to excessive costs in all areas is growing at an ever growing rate pushing more and more of our citizens out of the middle class and increasing our homelessness population.

 Secular

Bear Market for Bonds?

August 4, 2020 10 year Treasury bond yield bottoming at 0.52% marking the end of the great bond market of a lifetime for Boomer’s and Silent generation.  Today the secular trend is upward but never in a straight trajectory higher.  As we go through growth marred by stagflation and recessions interest rates will move up with higher highs and higher lows.  This will benefit silver, short term notes, and gold.    

 Amazing how it only took 30-40 years to BS a HUGE number of Americans into believing that debt is really “liberation.”