Financial War Report:

What's in Your Wallet?

Data from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances shows a stark gap between the majority of savers and those with high-balance retirement accounts: 

$0 to $9,999: 58.4% 


$10,000 to $99,999: 20.5%
 
$100,000 to $499,999: 13.9%
 
$500,000 to $999,999: 4.0%
 
$1 million or more: 3.2% 

Bubble

News!

Stock markets can be valued, and because they can be valued, the long-term risks involved in holding stocks vary from time to time. 

When stocks are cheap these risks are small, but when they are expensive the risks become very great indeed. 

In current conditions, the risks in holding stocks are too great to make them sensible investments. 

This approach is completely different than claiming that it is possible to know when the stock market has hit a peak or a trough.

 

All that the ability to value stocks provides is the ability to assess when holding them becomes too risky. 

On every occasion in the past that we can find, when a stock market has become as overvalued as Wall Street was at the end of the twentieth century, the consequences have been extremely bad for the economy as well as for investors.

– Andrew Smithers & Steven Wright, Valuing Wall Street, March 2000

July 15, 2026

The current level of stock market valuations remains – easily – the most speculative extreme in U.S. financial history, beyond both the 1929 and 2000 extremes. Our baseline estimate is that the S&P 500 has a material risk of losing something on the order of 75% over the completion of this cycle, a view that’s shared by GMO’s Jeremy Grantham. We can narrow that baseline estimate to a loss of about 55% if we assume that the robust profit margins of the past decade are permanent.

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

July 2026

 

Trump Accounts 

Are Now Open for Business

A new retirement savings vehicle called the “Trump Account” launched on July 4. Babies born between 2025 and 2028 get a $1,000 government seed, invested in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund. The accounts are designed for children and don’t require earned income. We applaud the effort to help children have their lifetime finance compound growth starting at birth.

Action: If you have a child under 3, visit trumpaccounts.gov to open an account and claim the $1,000 seed. Even without the government contribution, the ability to start a child’s retirement savings at birth is worth exploring. In Trump Account: A Children’s IRA Worth Understanding, it shows the following two charts:

 

Warning!

Once again I will take this opportunity to warn those who have 100% stock portfolios especially S&P 500 index or Total Market index. 

Stocks continue to fly ever higher with valuations moving closer and closer to the sun and yet there is an undertow with long term bonds whether investment grade corporate or U.S. Treasury 30 year maturity pulling harder and harder the rug out from under the feet of stocks.

Bond yields, especially long term are spiking higher and higher improving their compounding effect so much so, outperforming stocks over the next 10 years has become IMHO the most likely event.

This is especially true for dollar cost averaging starting without a lump sum.  Pure 100% dollar cost averaging exampled by Vanguard’s Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares current yield at 5.73% (as of 8-4-2026) as opposed to Vanguard’s 500 Index Fund with its tiny dividend yield at 1.02% (as of 8-4-2026)!  The bond yield is now (5.73 – 1.02) ÷ 1.02 X 100 = 462% (rounded) greater yield.  This all stock buyer is in a most awkward position of not just expecting higher stock prices (Shiller PE at 41.51) but demanding as the dividend yield has no chance (despite dividend increases) of outperforming current bond interest income.

Retirees who have been yield starved for far more years than we would ever wish to count we’ll have to wait until the screams of high rates is not just with the Legacy Media, but the social media as well.  Once that occurs – I have no idea when – buying long term investment quality bonds will make sense placing a positive outcome in you’re favor.

Till Next Time!

 

Smart Money - Buys Aggressively!

Capitulation

Despondency

Max-Pessimism 

Depression 

Hope -  F

Relief *Market returns to Mean  - Short Term Notes & Bills or MMF

Smart Money - Buys the Dips!

Optimism - Swiss Treasury Securities and Silver  - Gold

Media Attention 

Enthusiasm 

Smart Money - Sells the Rallies!

Thrill

Greed Crude Oil

Delusional

Max-Optimism  Residential Real Estate   - Stocks 

Denial of Problem   -BitCoin 

Anxiety 

Fear

Desperation - Long Term Bonds

Current Economic Conditions

Prosperity - Moderate

Recession - Shallow

Deflation - None

Inflation - Moderate

Economic Choices

None

Shallow

Moderate

Prominent

Extreme 

August 1, 2026 Moved Gold from Enthusiasm back down to Optimism  

August 1, 2026 Now following crude oil prices

January 20, 2026 Gold from Media Attention to Enthusiasm 

January 20, 2026  Silver from Hope to Optimism

December 22, 2025...Stated Long Term Investment Grade Corporate bonds will outperform stocks (Total Market Index) over the next ten years.  Vanguard ETF symbol VCLT (bonds) at 5.68% and Vanguard VTI (Total Market) dividend yield at 1.09%.  Interest is 421% greater than dividend yield.

December 29, 2025 Changed Bit Coin from Max-Optimism to Denial of Problem 

July 10, 2025 Added Swiss Treasury Securities 

May 24. 2025 Gold from Optimism to Media Attention

May 12, 2025 Added BitCoin at Max Optimism

November 4, 2024  Stocks from Denial of Problem to Max Optimism 

July 9, 2024 Added New Oil Indicator 

June 29, 2024  Dropped Oil Indicator

May 27, 2024  Added Current Economic Conditions 

January 20, 2024  Added residential real estate 

September 21, 2023  Long Term Bonds from Fear to Desperation 

October 27, 2022  Long Term Bonds from Anxiety to Fear

October 27, 2022  Short Term Bonds & MMF from Hope to Relief

October 1, 2022 Short Term Bonds & MMF from Depression to Hope

October 1, 2022 Bonds from Denial of Problem to Anxiety

October 1, 2022 Stocks from Max-Optimism to Denial of Problem

September 2, 2022  Lt. Bonds from Max-Optimism to Denial of Problem

March 15, 2021 Stocks from Denial of Problem to Max-Optimism

August 3, 2020 Gold from Mean to Optimism
August 3, 2020 Split Silver to Hope to accurately display Gold/Silver Ratio

March 3, 2020 Money Market funds from Depression to Max-Pessimism
March 3, 2020 Gold from Hope to Relief

March 3, 2020 Lt. Bonds from Denial of Problem to Max-Optimism
March 3, 2020 Stocks from Max-Optimism to Denial of Problem

March 28, 2017 Lt. Bonds From Max-Optimism to Denial of Problem

March 28, 2017 Gold From Relief to Hope

March 12, 2017  U.S. Stocks From Denial of Problem to Max-Optimism

July 5, 2015 - Lt. Term Bonds - From Delusional to Max-Optimism

July 5, 2015 - St. Term Bonds - From Despondency to Max-Pessimism

July 5, 2015 - MMF - From Max-Pessimism to Depression

April 8, 2015 - Gold - From Optimism to Relief

Nov. 4, 2014 - Gold - From Media Attention to Optimism

Sept. 10, 2012 - Stocks - From Anxiety to Denial of Problem

June 4, 2012 - Long Bonds - From Thrill to Delusional

May 18, 2012 - REIT's - From Delusional to Max-Optimism (no longer followed; sorry)

May 9, 2012 - Long Bonds - From Thrill to Greed

March 7, 2012 - Cash [MMF] - Despondency to Max-Pessimism

March 7, 2012 - Short Bonds - Capitulation to Despondency

.....

Despite all of the financial tantrums and fireworks...ZERO change from last month!

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 8/1/26

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

41% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

35% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **

 24% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines. 

 

Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.

"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:

Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]

Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........40.91
Bond Rate....5.73%

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

2.00+ Stocks on the give-away-table!

1.75+ Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30+ Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

0.50 or less:  Stock Market Crash Alert!  

Purchase 30 year Treasury Bonds! 

Current EYC Ratio: 0.47(rounded)

As of  8-1-2026
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com

Bond Rate is the rate as reported by

Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX)

DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.

Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

%
Stocks & Bonds

Allocation Formula

8-1-2026
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  ÷  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]

Formula's answer determines bond allocation.

Current PE10.....40.91

Avg. PE10...........17.40

Core Bond Allocation:  140% 

% Stock Allocation      0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation  100% (rounded)

Current Asset: Vanguard Short-Term

Investment Grade Bond Fund   

Logic behind this approach:

--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 

--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.

Current Allocation:

Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund

Possible Allocations to Bonds vs Stocks:

Bonds %

100%+  Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund 

99% to 65% Wellesley Income Fund

64% to 35% 1/2 Wellesley Income Fund - 1/2 Wellington Fund

34% to 20%  Equity Income Fund

19% to 0%  Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund

  

DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

A value based allocation strategy

February 19, 2010 by John Kingham

The Only Way to Reform the CDC is by Closing!

The

CDC

Follies

CDC

The Center for

Waste, FRAUD, and Old Fashion Abuse! 

CDC FOIA confession: we have no scientific evidence of any Poxviridae virus... including variola, cowpox, monkeypox, vaccinia, camelpox and orf virus

And no scientific evidence for contagion and no record of even a "viral genome" being found in anyone. We were faking it all along.

Christine FOIs Jul 15 2026 Greetings and Best Wishes, December 12, 2024: Roger Andoh acting as FOIA Officer, Office of the Chief Operating Officer, confessed in his freedom of information response #25-00253-FOIA (pgs 7/8, emphasis is mine): “This letter is in response to your Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (CDC/ATSDR) Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request of November 19, 2024, for All studies in the possession/custody/control of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and/or the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR), authored by anyone, anywhere, ever: 1. - that scientifically prove/provide evidence of the existence of the alleged “capripox virus” or any alleged virus of the “Poxviridae family” (showing that the alleged particles exist and cause the illness/symptoms that they are alleged to cause). Note: Scientific proof/evidence is not opinions, speculation, declarations, review papers or descriptive studies. Scientific evidence requires use of the scientific method to test falsifiable hypotheses through valid, rigorous, repeatable controlled experiments. 2. - (if no records exist for #1) that at least describe the purification of particles that are claimed to be any of these alleged viruses directly from bodily fluid/tissue/excrement of so-called “hosts” (without adding any sources of genetic material or proteins) with purification confirmed via EM imaging (the images must be available as well). Purify = separate from everything else in the clinical sample. You are seeking records that describe purification (separation from everything else in the “host” sample). You are not seeking private patient records. 3. - wherein the purported “genome” of any of these alleged viruses was found intact in the bodily fluid/tissue/excrement of a “host” (as opposed to fabricated in silico, aka a computer model). 4. - that scientifically demonstrate contagion of any of the illnesses that are allegedly caused by any of said purported viruses. CDC/ATSDR’s National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID) conducted search for records responsive to your request. Unfortunately, no responsive documents were found pertaining to your request. Per NCEZID’s subject matter experts, CDC/ATSDR has not done any work with capripox viruses. Additionally, CDC/ATSDR does not isolate viruses from a host.” Notice that I made it easy on the CDC’s “experts” in part #1 of my request, by not mentioning anything about viruses hijacking cells or replicating. All I asked for was evidence of the alleged particles existing and causing the relevant illness/symptoms… and still they admitted to not having any studies. They admitted to not having any scientific evidence of contagion as well. They could not even find 1 record of anyone on Earth finding the supposed “genome” of any of these alleged viruses in any “host”… …or even 1 record of anyone on Earth ever finding particles that they claim to be poxviridae family viruses in bodily fluid, tissue or excrement, and purifying them, so that virologists could have a valid independent variable to sequence, characterize and study with valid rigorous controlled experiments. And Roger flatly admitted: “…Per NCEZID’s subject matter experts…CDC/ATSDR does not isolate viruses from a host.” Because virology is pseudoscience by definition. The CDC joins the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the European CDC, the European Food Safety Authority, Greece’s Ministry of Rural Development and Food, and Greece’s National Public Health Organization in spectacularly failing official evidence challenges on Poxviridae family viruses… and 225 institutions in 40 different countries on dozens of other imagined viruses. Every institution has failed every evidence challenge. We have been lied to all our lives.  There is no “science” to follow. (Note: this information has been sent to ~200 people who work for “the state”, lamestream media, etc. at Canada, Isle of Man, England and the U.S., so that they cannot claim later that they did not know. It will also be sent to people who act in the Canadian “justice” system… that has falsely prosecuted people in relation to “germs”.) Rest in peace, Jon Rappoport - a light and inspiration to so many, for so long  Jon’s Prerecorded Farewell Message - Jon Rappoport Archive Jon Rappoport, Comrade de Plume (1938-2026) - Eric F. Coppolino No More Fake “Viruses”, A Tribute to Jon Rappoport - Mike Stone, viroLIEgy.com Official Confessions/Evidence Confirm that Virology is Pseudoscience My affidavit regarding the hundreds of freedom of information responses (FOIs) confirming the fraud and delusion of virology, with German and Greek translations: https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/affidavit-re-foi-and-fraud-and-delusion-of-virology Freedom of Information Responses reveal that health/science institutions around the world (225 and counting!) have no record of SARS-COV-2 (the alleged convid virus) isolation/purification, anywhere, ever: https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/fois-reveal-that-health-science-institutions-around-the-world-have-no-record-of-sars-cov-2-isolation-purification/ Excel file listing 225 institutions: https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Institution-list-for-website.xlsx FOI responses re other imaginary “viruses” (HIV, avian influenza, HPV, Influenza, Measles, etc., etc., etc.): https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/fois-reveal-that-health-science-institutions-have-no-record-of-any-virus-having-been-isolated-purified-virology-isnt-a-science/ FOIs re secretive and unscientifically "mock infected" cells (aka invalid controls) and computer-model "viral genomes": https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/do-virologists-perform-valid-control-experiments-is-virology-a-science/ 3000+ pages of "virus" FOIs in 8 compilation pdfs, and my notarized declarations re the anti-scientific nature of virology: https://tinyurl.com/IsolationFOIs Failed freedom of Information responses re contagion: https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/freedom-of-information-responses-re-contagion/ Do health and science institutions have studies proving that bacteria CAUSE disease? https://www.fluoridefreepeel.ca/do-health-authorities-have-studies-proving-that-bacteria-cause-disease-lets-find-out-via-freedom-of-information/ Because "they" (HIV, influenza virus, HPV, measles virus, etc., etc., etc.) have never been shown to exist, clearly don't exist and virology isn't a science. For truth, freedom and sanity, Christine