Tuesday, March 31, 2026

 

The war in Iran may be fake. But the regime change is real.


As the news cycle has been dominated continuously for the last couple of weeks with news of “the war in/on Iran”, then obviously, the first question we must ask, as seasoned sceptics of psyops is, “is this real?”

The general consensus from conspiratorially-inclined critical thinkers appears to be, “no”.

To clarify, to say the war is “fake”, or a psyop, is not to say there is nothing happening at all: clearly, there are a few pyrotechnic displays going on; some missile strikes conveniently targeting deserted housing complexes scheduled for demolition whilst avoiding all major infrastructure and other key strategy sites; and likely some real injuries and deaths - after all, people do really get hurt on movie sets.

But a movie set is nevertheless what it very much appears to be, with one researcher observing:

The footage looked like a Star Wars movie. I mean that literally. There were explosions everywhere, and like, lasers…and you are sitting there watching it thinking — what the shit?…Something is off here. Because it did not look like a war.

It looked like someone had a very generous effects budget and absolutely zero interest in making it look real.

This is the standard signature of the psyop: that the world-class directors and producers behind such productions, with access to infinite budgets and all the best tech, make their psyop sets look fake and unbelievable on purpose.

Conversely, if you go to the cinema to watch the latest war epic, it always looks all too real. Indeed, combat veterans reported that the opening scenes of Saving Private Ryan were so realistic, they were unable to watch them.

So it’s not that the black magic sorcerers behind the scenes lack the ability to make fake events look real: it’s that they intentionally don’t do so when staging a psyop, for two key reasons.

The first is that by making their deception readily apparent, they are not forcibly misleading you: rather, they are showing you clearly that the event is fake, meaning that if you choose to believe in it anyway, and behave as if the illusion is real, that’s on you: you have consented to the deception.

We do appear to live in a consent-based system, and so the ruling classes always require it from us to ensure their various deceptive schemes - wars, pandemics, terror attacks, etc. - successfully become part of the global narrative. Obviously, if the majority of us just rolled our eyes and said, “nice try, but this obviously isn’t real”, these staged events would hold no power.

The second reason for such obvious fakery is to fulfil propaganda’s key purpose: humiliation. The psychopathic ruling classes love to mock and humiliate their victims, and requiring the masses to behave as if they believe in something that is very obviously fake, is a key part of the propagandist ritual. As Theodore Dalrymple said:

[T]he purpose of communist propaganda was not to persuade or convince, nor to inform, but to humiliate; and therefore, the less it corresponded to reality the better. When people are forced to remain silent when they are being told the most obvious lies, or even worse when they are forced to repeat the lies themselves, they lose once and for all their sense of probity. To assent to obvious lies is to co-operate with evil, and in some small way to become evil oneself. One’s standing to resist anything is thus eroded, and even destroyed. A society of emasculated liars is easy to control.”

The “war in Iran” very much appears to be adhering to these rules, and is little more than a performative soap opera, played out in large parts - as today’s soap operas often are - on social media.

As one critic observed:

The US, Israel, and Iran are all equally culpable. All 3 announcing strikes hours in advance on Twitter is not warfare, it is to give the illusion of warfare to those gullible enough to believe it.

The aforementioned countries are not really enemies run by warring factions, but part of a globalist power network all controlled by the same people, working towards the same goals, for the same reasons.

 Iran is not some renegade outlier, it is a fully signed-up member of the lockstep global agenda, and entirely ensconced in the club.

We can easily discern this to be true this from the facts that Iran participated in the Covid pantomime, has widely installed 5G technology and is working towards 6G, and has a ‘robust’ childhood vaccination programme (including giving the tuberculosis and Hepatitis B vaccinations at birth).

So, Iran is demociding its population and stealing its children’s futures in just the same way the Western countries it is supposedly “at war” with are: so why are they (allegedly) at war?

Well, there’s the old “they have weapons of mass destruction” (or will have them soon) trope. The Trump administration has claimed Iran is ‘a week away‘ from having a nuclear weapon, a claim which Iran has denied. I believe their denial, since I don’t believe nukes are real.

They’re just more fabricated fear propaganda.

As ‘covid’ demonstrated to us so ably, you don’t need a real threat to optimally control a population: you just need the fear of one.

Whether or not you believe “there was a virus” (I don’t), what is unanimously clear is that there was no increased threat to health or life in 2020 as compared to any other year. All that happened is that, in 2020, people who would, in previous years, have been admitted to hospital for flu or pneumonia, were labelled as covid patients instead, then inappropriately treated with ventilators, midazolam, and other drugs.

These dangerous treatment protocols caused some excess deaths, which were consequently attributed to “the virus”, and it became common practice to put ‘covid’ on a death certificate, even when a patient had been terminally ill with other conditions, and when a covid test hadn’t been performed (not that said tests were anything other than useless theatre props).

So the point is, there was no increased threat to anyone’s health or safety in 2020 from “a novel virus” (which in my opinion didn’t even exist), but there didn’t need to be: people simply needed to believe that there was, and then they modified their behaviour accordingly.

It’s the same with nuclear weapons: they don’t need to really exist in order for the ruling classes to use their threat to control people through fear: people simply need to believe that they do.

So, the nominal reason for the war on Iran is “they’re getting nukes”, with a secondary, supporting reason being the need to topple their evil dictator leaders.

Already, a key movie baddie - Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - has reportedly been killed off, and this, apparently, could be Iran’s Berlin Wall moment.

The Guardian reports:

Khamenei, 86, sat atop Iran’s Islamic power structure for 37 years – nearly a decade longer than the Berlin Wall lasted. As the senior religious authority in the country’s system of velayat-e faqih – rule by Islamic jurisprudence adopted after the 1979 Islamic revolution – he had the final say on all state matters.

His sudden and violent removal leaves a political vacuum that serving members of the regime may struggle to fill.”

The Guardian continues:

[Iranian scholar] Milani said the regime’s surviving elements no longer possessed the means or the power of intimidation over the populace to hold power by fear alone.

“You need an apparatus of oppression,” he said. “They don’t have enough people willing to kill for them. They still have some but they have lost that focused will that allowed, for example, the Communist party in China to survive after Tiananmen Square.

“And you need a population that is frightened. Fear has dissipated. In Iran, when fear dissipates, authoritarian and pseudo-totalitarian regimes can’t survive.”

In short, this is the precursor for the Islamic theocratic rule in Iran being overthrown, a regime which has been vigorously challenged both in Iran and around the world since the Iranian revolution in 1979.

The official story goes that, prior to 1979, Iran was “a rapidly modernising, pro-Western monarchy under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, characterised by significant social liberalisation, secularisation, and oil-fuelled economic growth“, but that, after 1979, “transformed from a secular monarchy to a strict theocratic Islamic Republic, enforcing mandatory hijabs, gender segregation, and Islamic law“.

The population, women especially, are said to be brutally oppressed, with the regime renowned for “a combination of mandatory morality laws, severe judicial punishment, and violent suppression of dissent, particularly targeting women, ethnic minorities, and LGBTQ+ individuals“. Excessive and lethal force, torture, and sexual assault are said to be commonplace.

That sounds like a pretty despicable Muslim regime, right? I mean, isn’t this just more evidence of how thoroughly evil Islam is, and how we need to stamp it out?

Well... not quite.

Look a bit deeper at the “Muslim” power structures in Iran, and guess what you find...

The Iranian rulers are not really Muslim at all: they’re Jewish.

What supremacist organised Jewry has done, with both Islam and Christianity alike, is infiltrate the religions with a view to making them appear so unpalatable - so destructive, violent, and tyrannical - that the world gets behind their mutual destruction.

The destruction of Christianity is already well underway in Western countries, especially the UK, where it is increasingly viewed as a repressive relic which does nothing but constrain and control people, whilst enabling mass institutionalised paedophilia - and the destruction of Islam in Eastern countries is undergoing a similarly targeted destruction.

The point of the “war on Iran” is to get the world behind the same regime change there that has already happened, or is planned to soon happen, everywhere else: the destruction of the target country’s unifying religion and morality, to be replaced by global libertine communism. As John Lennon, Tavistock change agent, prophetically warbled: “no religions, no countries, and no possessions“. No genders or families, either. That’s the desired future, globally.

At present, there isn’t much mass support for - or even interest in - the war in Iran (apart from the effect we’re told it’ll have on petrol prices) - so, in order to get Western audiences more engaged in the action, the scriptwriters need to bring it closer to home: 

Therefore, expect some major FACKED “Iranian terror attack”, probably aimed at “the Jewish community”, to be unleashed in London or New York or some other central, suitably celluloid location, very soon.

It will be fake, as I wrote about before, but the public will be expected to behave as if it is real.

The social controllers are already prepping us for this, by claiming plots against British Jews by “Iranian terror cells” have been foiled by police, but that a successful attack soon is more or less inevitable...

They may even go for the big (orange) one, of having Iran be seen to “assassinate Trump”, to really kick off some cinematic chaos (and consequently, instal JD Vance in the top job, which I believe is key to their goal of ultimately undermining Christianity in the USA).

Whatever treacherous tricks they come up with - and they will - the key thing to always ask ourselves, before becoming emotionally invested in any reported event, is, “is this real?” - and assume, until there’s compelling evidence to the contrary, that it isn’t.

Always remember that the world is a stage, war is theatre, and social media is a soap opera - and proceed accordingly.

 

HSA - Factoid!


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    .
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Saturday, March 28, 2026

 

Valuation:

U.S. Stock Market and U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds.

3-28-2026

S&P 500 dividend yield (VOO) is a tiny 1.09% as compared to U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (VCLT) at 5.83% or simply put (5.83 - 1.09) ÷ 1.09 x 100 = 435% (rounded) greater than S&P 500 stock index.

What has happened the S&P 500 due to share prices racing ahead faster than dividend increases for purchases today the yield has declined as compared to the last bottom March of 2009 at 3.60%.

Intrinsic Value:  Will my investment make me money if I could no longer sell to another investor?  Intrinsic is interest, dividends, rents and royalties.

Margin of Safety:  In order to not endure a loss or sub par return within a normalized time frame for us mortals we need at a minimum for the S&P 500 dividend yield to be 50% of what can be achieved with bonds.  That yield needs to be at least 2.9% that cannot be found in any index fund.  Not even for my favorite NOBL (dividend aristocrats) comes up short at 2.05%.

At 50% or greater dividend growth (5.4% average annual increase since 1871) dividend compounding without any change in price (pretending the market is closed) will over come bonds within a few years.

Today market participants believe they are investors when actually they've become SPECULATORS. 

IMO long term investment grade bonds over the next 10 years will outperform stocks. 

Please note:  This investment race could very well be won by bonds loosing less money after inflation as compared to stocks.  In the end its purchasing power for all of the things we need to buy for life's needs and along the way a few wants for the spice of life.

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

The Question is…Is it Time in the Market or is it Timing the Market?

 

196%

Above Trend Line!

DYI:  No matter how stock market participants slice or dice valuation metrics the U.S. market is massively overvalued!  One third of market returns comes from compounding of dividends and the remaining two thirds is from changes in the price to earnings multiple.

The Question is…Is it Time in the Market or is it Timing the Market?  If you’re a college endowment such as Harvard or Yale whose time horizon is forever, then time in the market is far more important than timing the market. 

However, for us mere mortals with only a few decades “To put it all together” then timing or to be more accurate pricing (valuations) possible future returns becomes not just important but absolutely paramount.

Dollars invested today and over the past few years will experience sub par returns or even possible losses over their respective 10 year holding time horizons.  Simply put as PE ratios regress back to the mean and very possibly go below that two thirds portion will drag down returns since the dividend yield beginnings were so low (1%).

DYI’s model portfolio has been out of U.S. stocks for many years however Vanguard’s Global Capital Cycles Fund – VGPMX (holds 25% in precious metals mining companies) over the past 5 years return has been 22.24%!  My model portfolio designed to out perform Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio is doing just fine despite holding a large short term bond position.

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 3/1/26

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
57% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
22% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **
 21% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]
** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

Is DYI’s model portfolio designed to out perform the S&P 500?  In one word: NO!  It is designed to capture ¾’s of its return with ½ to ¾ less downside thus able ling us mere mortals with that limited time horizon “To put it all together”  without experiencing any massive bear markets!

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; 
however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!
The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.
The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.
Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Sunday, March 22, 2026

 

Is the U.S. Stock Market

Massively

Overvalued?

DYI:  No matter what type of valuation method used the U.S. stock market is massively overvalued.  This chart from Advisor Perspectives using the average of four measuring methods (see chart above) stocks are now 176% above the mean or around 3.75 standard deviation above as well.  Clearly the upside potential is now significantly less than the downside. 

To provide an insight, if stocks dropped from here by 50% they would remain marginally overvalued!  A 65% decline would be required to solidly place stocks in the undervalued category! 

IMO stocks will once again revert from this massive overvaluation all the way to massive undervaluation.  Please note the possibility of doing this all at once is very remote.  What is more plausible is a combination of declining prices plus the erosion of return by inflation such as experienced from 1965 to 1985 with multiple rollercoaster rises and falls.      


Locked in a small room with flu sufferers — but no one caught it. Why?

Thursday, March 19, 2026

 How to Use this Blog


Four Uncorrelated Assets
1.)  Stocks
2.)  Long Term High Grade Corporate/Government Bonds
3.)  Short Term Notes (Cash)
4.)  Gold – Precious Metals Mining Companies

Four Assets Correlated to Four Economic Conditions
1.)  Prosperity
2.)  Deflation
3.)  Recession
4.)  Inflation

1.)  Prosperity: Stocks become a clear winner during conditions of increasing employment, rising wages tied to increasing productivity along with rising profits.  Junk bonds (they trade like stocks) are also winners in this environment despite their low quality; the economy is so good interest and principal payments are made – defaults are minimum – and a positive climate for refinancing.  High quality corporate/ government bonds are secondary winners as prosperity is noted for stable or slowly declining rates.  Gold is generally a loser in prosperity as inflation is minimized and investors seek higher returns in more traditional investments.


2.)  Deflation:  Deflation is the decease in the general price level of goods and services.  The Great Depression is a standout example of deflation.  The general cause is when excess debt is built up in the private sector that can no longer be increased and/or maintained resulting in massive bankruptcies.  This creates an environment of panic as businesses scramble to become profitable by firing employees and cutting hours of remaining workers.  In this deflationary episode interest rates decline, prices decline, and the almighty buck rises in value against softer currencies.

Long term high quality corporate bonds and long term U.S. government bonds are winners in this type of economy.  Stocks, gold, and junk bonds generally will fall in price along with interest rates on short term notes.

3.)  Recession:  For DYI's purposes recessions are a period of increasing interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve in order to quell inflation by slowing down an over heating economy.  This condition is temporary as the economy will either adjust to the new economic environment bringing back prosperity or a deflationary period will begin.

High quality corporate/government bonds, stocks, gold, and junk bonds are all losers in this scenario. Short term notes and money market funds are clear winner as their principal value remains steady plus the interest income improves with increasing interest rates.

4.)  Inflation:  Too much money chasing too few goods.  When Federal government liabilities become onerous from financing of war(s) and/or social programs that are too great to be paid by taxation governments will resort to money creation to pay the remaining costs.  After WWII, Korea, Vietnam and the war on Poverty inflation began slowly prices increased relentlessly (despite high taxes) as government liabilities expanded.  When President Richard Nixon closed the gold window (1971) the last vestige of inflationary controls were removed with inflation peaking in the high teens only until Paul Volker was appointed as Fed Chairman (August 79) who crushed inflation with high interest rates.

Stocks, high quality long term corporate/government bonds, junk bonds are all losers as inflation soars along with interest rate increases (despite the Fed's efforts to suppress them).  Cash (money market funds) or short term notes are neutral or slightly lag inflation rolling up to the higher interest rate quickly.

Gold is a winner when inflation breaks above 5%.  When inflation goes double digit gold is marked up in price to reflect the debasement of the currency.  Gold will also rise in price based upon fear of massive defaults as gold has no counter party risk.

 VALUATIONS DO MATTER

This investment approach is an offshoot of Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio that maintains a fixed 25% invested in the above four asset categories listed above.  Harry's uncorrelated assets at the time was ground breaking.  Today it is taken for granted.  As much as I was impressed with Harry's work it always made me uncomfortable to always own 25% in each asset. When valuations are at extreme lows a greater percentage is called for and conversely at historical nose bleed levels significantly less (or none).

DYI’s approach working through our four assets and determining with a measure of accuracy the percentage invested depending upon long term valuations.  This is done by calculating our averaging formula for each asset.

If all three assets - gold, stocks, long term bonds, cash is our default position - are at fair or average value then each of the categories will be at 25% of the portfolio just like Browne's Permanent Portfolio.  However as prices move up or down from their respective mean our averaging portfolio will make the adjustment enhancing the overall return.  

Will DYI outperform the market??

Our primary goal is to outperform the Permanent Portfolio first.  

Outperform the stock market?
Maybe? 

DYI's intentions is a 6% real return - as opposed to Browne's 4% - into your pocket with low volatility as opposed to our fully invested stock market investor.  

In closing each of these assets stocks, long term bonds, gold and cash, all have their their moment of fame or shame.  

Value players reduce or eliminate the overvalued assets and increase the undervalued; simple as that!     
DYI

Monday, March 16, 2026

DYI Comment:  

This pop in oil prices is obviously NOT due to economic forces but from a supply constrained war.  Be as that may be, prices have now moved up so swiftly DYI's investment formula throws us out the oil business and rightfully so as downside is much greater than any potential gains.  

Oil prices are now 75% above their inflation corrected average.  DYI will NOT speculate as to how long this stranglehold will last for oil tankers within Persia and Arabia.   

Updated

Monthly

March 16, 2026

100 x (CP - AVG. AP ÷ 4) ÷ (AVG. AP x 2 - AVG. AP ÷ 2)]

 CP = Current Oil Price

AVG. OP = Average Oil Price

Answer is for bond percentage level


West Texas Intermediate Oil:  

Current Price (CP) - December 1, 2025  $96.00


Illinois Basin Crude Oil:  

Average Price (AP) - $55 (rounded) since 1946


Asset Allocation: 

0% Vanguard Energy Fund 

Symbol VGENX

100%  Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund 

Symbol VBIRX

Saturday, March 14, 2026

 

When the Top 20%

Reduce their Spending

Expect a Stock Market Selloff!