National
Politics
is Reality TV
A Scripted Event for the Masses!
Formula Based Asset Allocation*** STOCKS *** BONDS *** GOLD *** CASH................................ GeoPolitics/Economics...Removing Theory from Conspiracies
National
Politics
is Reality TV
A Scripted Event for the Masses!
President Richard Nixon
“Suspended the convertibility”
for U.S. dollars into gold on
August
15, 1971
DYI: To stay ahead of the inflation monster there is a simple
method in investing giving you a leg up on this beast. The Dow to Gold Ratio will give you basic
parameters for how much gold to hold and how much in stocks.
Using DYI’s averaging formula you’ll know the basic percentage
between gold and stocks. This method is for very long term investing moving
through business and inflation cycles generally lasting one or two decades
in length.
Till Next
Time
They needed
an alibi:
DNA
became the perfect one.
Largest Owners
Of
Residential
Houses/Townhomes/Condos
Is
Mom & Pop’s
DYI: The biggest rental players don’t even come close to the Mom
and Pop owners of residential real estate. The next time you watch any scare videos
thinking the big boys will own everything and you’ll own nothing – as far as residential
real estate is concerned – they’re full of B.S.
Till Next Time
Financial
Warfare
1.) Live way below your means!
Example: If you can afford a Mercedes buy a Honda Accord.
The biggest killers is student loans, credit card debt, car/truck loans, home mortgages and God forbid medical bills. We live in a debt nation so avoid it and/or payoff as soon as possible.
Never have a mortgage greater than 2 times your gross income and finance with 15 year loan.
If you want to have life where you can save and invest plus money for the extras never overpay for housing. You will have to save for a few years but it well worth it as the savings in mortgage interest cost is staggering.
Also with a 20% down you avoid private mortgage insurance (PMI is used for possible default) an expense far greater than just a nuisance. Not an easy task with property prices moving upward at breath taking speed but well worth it in the end as you will have a smaller payment and a paid off house in 15 years (or less if you make extra payments).
2.) Increase your means!
Work on your career pushing for that next pay raise or promotion. Early in your life have a part time job as well.
3.) Avoid debt like a deadly disease!
Use your debit card exclusively only rarely use a credit card and when you do pay it off at light speed. If investment returns are less than the cost of your mortgage and/or student loans make additional payments. Get rid of debt!
4.) Have excessive savings!
They say having 3 to 6 months of saving is good enough. That's BS! Life will throw you more curve balls than a professional pitcher from your favorite team. 3 months in checking; 3 months in high yielding savings account; 6 to 18 months worth of savings in an account with Vanguard's short term bond fund - Vanguard Short-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares.
One or even two year’s worth of savings is not out of the question. We live in a world of downsizing, mergers-buyouts, economic declines even hurricanes that flood out the Appalachian mountains of Ashville NC!
5.) Invest conservatively and consistently!
Don't try to go shoot for those mega returns look for the slow and stable returns defined as below average return upside, above average in flat markets and superior returns downside.
My favorites:
This all economic season fund is the brain child of the late Harry Browne (all of his ideas surround this blog) with a fixed asset allocation shown below.
Target Portfolio Structure:
Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund Investor Shares
At this moment 11-5-2026 stocks are massively overvalued, however the stock holdings in Wellesley Fund are not the high flyers of today they are the big dividend payers. This fund holds approximately 35% stocks and 65% in bonds.
6.) Automate your savings
Almost all HR/Payroll departments will allow you to split your take home pay to two different checking/savings account. Send a portion to build up your high yielding savings account (HYSA) once that is finished then set up an auto draft from your savings to vanguard into your short term bond fund. Once that becomes too big, call Vanguard and shift a portion to Wellesley or whatever fund depending on the valuations of the market.
Example: Let's say your putting in $500 per month into your high yielding savings account straight in from your paycheck overtime you've achieved your 6 months emergency money. Establish an account with Vanguard's short term bond fund and auto-draft from your savings $250 per month.
Once you've passed the two years in savings once per year (January is a good month) - [have your smart phone send you reminders] call Vanguard and transfer the excess from your short term bond fund into your long term stock/bond fund. Any excess from your HYSA send that money to your short term bond fund.
7.) To 401k or not to 401k??
The vast majority of these plans have fee's that are way too high. Most of their stocks funds has an expense ratio 2% plus and have additional fees to manage 401k structure. Wellesley Income Fund expense ratio is 0.23% with no other fees of any type attached! Once you have $50,000 this shifts automatically to Vanguard's Wellesley Admiral fund and drops the expense ratio to 0.16% and again no other fees of any type attached!
So...If your 401k is loaded with fees - and it most likely is - if your company has a match then invest up to that amount and no more.
Video with the late Jack Bogle explaining the tyranny of compounding fees! Click HERE
By the way I receive zero money from Vanguard it is simply my opinion that they are great ultra low cost providers.
8.) Be careful who you marry!
If you marry a spender you will end up working well into your 70's. A bit out of my wheel house but I felt compelled to add this - as this dynamic happens way too often with couples.
Growing
Awareness!
The streets of France, Germany, Poland, Spain, Ireland, and
other countries, and it is boiling here, too, with anger growing, and not just against
Trump. Both sides are trying to demonize the other side in the run-up to the
elections, but people have had it with both parties. Almost no one is left that
is stupid enough to cast a protest vote against Trump by voting for the Dems.
Surely no real person
believes Socialism is going to solve this?
What do you think they are revolting against in Europe? They
have planted actors/spokesmen on the streets to make you think the revolts over
there are coming from the left, but they aren't. They’re not coming from the
right, either, though that is nearer the truth. People are fed up with the
manufactured divisions and lies from all sides, and are coming to realize this
has nothing to do with Socialism or Capitalism.
It has to
do with the predatory class that has taken over the world, becoming ever more virulent
in the past 50 years.
It is institutionalized
theft by the governments of the world to feed the very rich people running
them.
That isn't a political or economic problem; it is amoral and
legal one. These thieves have to be routed and replaced with honest folk, if
any can still be found.
From the desk of Miles Mathis click HERE for his entire
post. I’ve truncated a small portion
from his most enlighten article.
Till Next Time
November 2026
Growth Stocks
VS
Value Stocks
Current underperformer: Value
DYI: Here is a method for individuals with a high volatility tolerance (especially downside). If you're young enough with at least 2 decades and 3 is preferred; obviously in the accumulation stage of life.
Two Vanguard Funds:
1.) Growth Index Fund VIGAX
5 year return 10.78%...10 year return 17.57%
2.) Value Index Fund VVIAX
5 year return 12.43%...10 year return 13.01%
(Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares
VFIAX...5 YEAR RETURN 12.02%...10 YEAR RETURN 15.40%)
The accumulation of savings is in the fund that is UNDERPERFORMING! When your underperforming fund (compare 5 and 10 year returns) becomes the new winner you now direct your savings into the old winner neither fund is ever sold. That’s it!
Whether or not this method will outperform the S&P 500 index is unknown, however it does make common sense buying the bargain as compared between the two funds – growth vs value.
--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk.
--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.
Updated
Monthly
November 1, 2026
100 x (CP - AVG. AP ÷ 4) ÷ (AVG. AP x 2 - AVG. AP ÷ 2)]
CP = Current Oil Price
AVG. OP = Average Oil Price
Answer is for bond percentage level
West Texas Intermediate Oil:
Current Price (CP) - July 1, 2025 $103.00
Average Inflation Adjusted Price (AP) - $64 (rounded) since 1946
Asset Allocation:
9% Vanguard Energy Fund
Symbol VGENX
91% Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund
Symbol VBIRX
DYI’s
An Asset
Discussion!
U.S. Stocks:
Making the statement that equities being overvalued is a massive
understatement. Valuations today are the
highest they’ve ever been in history!
The chart below let’s one know the downside risk today is significantly greater than any remaining
upside.
Investment Grade Long Term Bonds:
Yields today despite all of the ongoing hoopla are now trading at their
average since 1871! Now that
the U.S. has ended their sub atomically low yields investors have a reasonable
chance to increase their wealth through compounding. This is especially true for those with a
minimum of 10 years (20 years is better) before the money is needed to dollar
cost average into your favorite long term investment grade bond fund.
However for those with lump sums there is still room for higher interest
rates even within this current economic cycle.
Since the last vestige for the gold standard ended in 1971 (100% fiat
currency) interest rate movements – up or down – are now far more exaggerated. Simply put there is not enough level of
screaming (such as 1979 to 1981) for a secular peak in rates. So…The name of the game is dollar cost averaging.
Gold:
The Dow to Gold Ratio is currently trading at 12.63 to 1. The long term average is around 10 to 1. In relation to gold stocks remain overvalued (no kidding!) with additional upside remaining for gold.
Unless there is a sea change of biblical size
within Congress and President(s) getting their respective acts together for
balanced budgets gold will continue move in a saw tooth motion upward. IMO I would not be surprised at the peak for
gold and the low for stocks to end at a 1 to 1 ratio.
Till Next
Time
PRPFX
1985 to 2025
Permanent Portfolio Fund
S&P 500 Total Return
11.47% average annualized return
*************************
Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX)
9.22% average annualized return
DYI: The premise of this blog is outperformance of the Permanent
Portfolio fund while at the same time holding onto the significantly lower
drawdowns than the S&P 500. While
attempting to garner ¾ plus of the long term return on a portfolio that is 100%
in stocks. High enough return to achieve
our financial goals and (to repeat) significantly
lower drawdowns during bear markets.
To illustrate: The
biggest drawdown for the Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX)** was 27.16%, which occurred
from May 2008 to November 2008 (or peaking around November 20, 2008). However it took only 1.4 years (or 221
trading sessions) to recover its previous high.
The S&P 500 greatest drawdown: -56.8% (peak-to-trough
drop from October 9, 2007, to March 9, 2009) requiring 5 years and 5 months regaining
its previous peak; highlighting the significant difference.
Following DYI’s blog you would have learned that stock
valuations during that massive drawdown for stocks were in the bargain range*. Those with additional dollars to invest would
have been loading up on stocks and when the upside turns reducing that break
even time period.
People talk the talk of being that “long term investor” but
when the manure hits that rotating fan the vast majority will run to the hills
locking in large percentage losses.
Till Next
Time
*My blog didn’t start until 2014 which of course is after the
market smash of 2009. However I hope you get my point regarding valuations.
**I have zero involvement with the Permanent Portfolio Fund group other than liking the fund and owning shares myself. The same goes for Vanguard Group of Funds advocated in this blog.