Valuations

Have left Planet Earth!

Future 10 year Returns?

NEGATIVE!

When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. 

As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer, and society-wide efforts to become an elite grow ever more frenzied. The wealth pump; it’s a world of the damned and the saved. And since the number of such positions remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. When this state has been reached, societies become locked in a death spiral it's very hard to exit.

In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. Our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture.

More than likely we'll embark upon a two decade long roller coaster bear market similar to 1966 to 1982 (17 years) marked by declining stock prices and high inflation.  This will also beat up bonds spouting ever higher interest rates and real estate whether residential or commercial prices will decline nominally and obviously under perform inflation.  This will significantly reduce the net worth of the top 50% (except the 1%) and many heavily leveraged players will be wiped out.  The bottom 50% will not feel too much pain as they have so little to lose (lack of stocks, bonds, RE) but will feel pain due to the overall inflation.

When??  It has already begun as bonds ended their massive bull market from 1981 to 2020 tearing into the flesh of long term bond buyers as measured by the 10 year Treasury bond that bottomed at 0.52% on August of 2020 (peaked 9-3-81 at 15.84%) currently today at 4.79%!  From absolute peak for price to interest 1 ÷ .52 = 192 (rounded) with todays price to interest 1 ÷ 4.79 = 21 So...(192 - 21) ÷ 192 x 100 = 89% DECLINE!

If the so called elites try to patch up this decline by attempting to force interest rates lower will only stoke the inflationary flames hotter with bond buyers demanding higher yields to protect their future buying power!

So...The elites whether they know it or not are on top of the mountain and no matter which way they will go it is the race to the bottom!  Politics will get even nastier along with pockets of civil unrest that is already happening as gangs of looters (inner cities) break into stores stealing and leaving before the police arrive!     

 U.S. Government

Organized Crime?

FDA lawyer admits: 'HPV' & all other 'virus'-related authorizations are based on ZERO scientific evidence

No evidence that the virus even exists. Life in prison.

Christine Massey FOIs Jan 10 Greetings and Best Wishes, On August 29, 2024 I filed an order (pg 1) with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for all studies authored by anyone, anywhere in the possession/custody/control of the institution: 1. - that scientifically prove or provide evidence of the existence of any alleged "HPV" aka "Human Papillomavirus" (showing that the alleged particles exist and cause the illness/symptoms that they are alleged to cause) 2. - that describe the purification of particles that are alleged to be "HPV" directly from bodily fluid/tissue/excrement of so-called "hosts" (without adding any sources of genetic material or proteins) 3. - wherein the purported "genome" of any alleged "HPV" was found intact in the bodily fluid/tissue/excrement of a "host" (as opposed to fabricated in silico aka made-up / modelled on a computer) 4. - that scientifically demonstrate contagion of the illness / symptoms that are allegedly caused by purported "HPVs". Note that I made it easy on them by not requiring any evidence that the alleged particles hijack cells and replicate. And as usual, I asked that if any records match the above descriptions and are currently available to the public elsewhere, I be provided enough information about each one so that I may identify and access it (titles, authors, etc.). I also selected the “expedited processing” option based on “danger to human life”, given the fact that young people will continue being injected with dangerous ingredients based on the premise of a never-shown-to-exist “virus”. The next day I received an acknowledgement letter (pg 4) from Sarah B. Kotler (“J.D.”) who acts as Director, Division of Headquarters Freedom of Information, Office of Management and Enterprise Services, Office of the Commissioner, US FDA stating: “We will respond as soon as possible…” Three months later, I had not received a response and so on November 30, 2024 I followed up with Sarah (pg 6). This time Sarah responded (pg 8). She falsely claimed that I had acknowledged receipt of the FDA’s response. She also claimed not to know why I had made a reference to her “proper name”. I corrected Sarah that same day, pointing out that I had only acknowledged her unsigned acknowledgement letter and was still waiting for her official “no records” confession. I also pointed out issues with her “digital signatures” on responses to other imaginary-virus FOI responses, and let her know that the longer she stalls the worse it looks and the longer she might spend in jail for culpable homicide aka murder (pg 9). Sarah then claimed that a response had already been sent to me (pg 10), while ignoring the issues with her past “digital signatures” (emphasis added, below). “Pursuant to 45 CFR 5.28(a), “we will send you a response informing you of our release determination, including whether any responsive records were located, how much responsive material was located, whether the records are being released in full or withheld in full” … We have done that. Your request is closed. Are you saying you did not receive the response? If that is the case, I can send you another one.”  I informed Sarah that no FOI response had appeared in my inbox (pg 11). Sarah now indicated that she suddenly understood what the problem was (pg 12). Sarah immediately followed up with an email that looked like a response, but lacked an actual response (pgs 13/14). Her email did not inform me “whether any responsive records were located, how much responsive material was located, whether the records are being released in full or withheld in full” - despite indicating in her earlier email that such is required under 45 CFR 5.28(a). Instead, Sarah’s email contained irrelevant, false and misleading statements implying that viruses are known to exist and that the FDA actually protects people and ensures safety and efficacy of the products that it approves or authorizes. I pointed out the deficiency in Sarah’s non-response email, asked her to remove the irrelevant, false and misleading statements and gave her my affidavit re the virus-related FOI responses from 225 institutions in 40 different countries. Sarah then backtracked and contradicted her earlier claim of having already sent me a response and her theatrical performance of re-sending a response. She now asserted that “we consider your request misdirected” (pg 16). She also confessed, not for the first time, that: “It is not something that FDA would have records about. You may want to consider submitting to CDC.”  Anyone familiar with this FOI project knows that the CDC has already been FOI’d on HPV, SARS-COV-2 and dozens of other imaginary viruses and that they failed to provided a shred of valid scientific evidence every single time (because none exists). This had already been pointed out to Sarah (i.e. pg 12 here). And as Sarah knows full well, the FDA itself has failed every virus-challenge put to it (SARS-COV-2, avian influenza virus, monkeypox virus, any virus of the Poxviridae family). So I called Sarah out on her latest deflection, which amounts to a refusal to respond to the FOIA order. Sarah has made it clear for everyone to see: she knows perfectly well that no one at the FDA can provide or cite any valid scientific evidence showing the existence of any alleged virus or viral genome or "viral" anything or contagion. This makes it impossible for the “experts” at FDA to evaluate any test, quackcine or other intervention that supposedly relates to an alleged virus or viral illness. They are fakers, and their fraudulent rubber-stamping of products is just part of the murderous state-sponsored theatre. Everyone can draw their own conclusions as to how much prison time is appropriate for the lawyers, politicians, business people, pseudoscientists, etc. who are complicit in deadly “germ” hoaxes. Note: I have parted ways with the evil thieves at “Stripe” so if you would like to support my efforts, please see the Paypal button that is near the bottom of my homepage. (Note: this information has been sent to ~200 people who work for “the state”, lamestream media, etc. at Canada, Isle of Man, England and the U.S., so that they cannot claim later that they did not know. It will also be sent to people who act in the Canadian “justice” system… that has falsely prosecuted people in relation to “germs”.) Thank You Christine!

 Momentum Players

Remain in Charge!

DYI:  Valuations is a weighing tool it is not a timing tool.  Obviously today valuations are at insane levels however until this is recognized by enough players stocks will continue their advance.  That advance is now only being powered higher, predominantly by the top 7 stocks called the magnificent 7!

Apple

Microsoft

Amazon

Alphabet (Google)

Meta Platforms (Facebook)

Nvidia

Tesla

The advancing stocks compared to declining stocks listed on the NYSE remains advancing albeit a far lessor pace.  This is doing so by the outsized gains of the Mag 7!

The chart below is a timing tool for the S&P 500 clearly showing  that the momentum players remain in charge, however when the tide turns and momentum moves south valuations will be in charge causing a large percentage drop before the value (valuations) players start moving in pick off the bargains!

 War!

Natural Resources

Somethings Just Never Change! 

To the Last Ukrainian: United States Pressures Zelensky to Lower Conscription Age to 18

After lowering conscription from 27 to 25 in April 2024, the Biden Administration urges Ukraine to mobilize more men

Lena Petrova Nov 29 ,  2024

As brutal videos of forced mobilization across Ukraine continue to spread online, Volodimir Zelensky and his Western masters are determined to continue fighting the unwinnable proxy war against Russia “to the last Ukrainian”: the United States has started to openly pressure Kyiv to, once again, lower the official conscription age. 

The West wants to send 18-year-old Ukrainians to the front lines as Russian forces advance and Senator Lindsay Graham is getting antsy that trillions of dollars worth of Ukrainian natural resources, primarily located in the Donbas and central Ukraine, will be under Russia’s control.

 The Desk of

Gemma O'Doherty's

Substack

Does Voting Actually Count?

Just substitute Ireland for USA 

How much more evidence do you need before you accept that the State and all of its institutions are riddled with corruption and beyond redemption?

Take the HSE (CDC Irish version)  hell circus which forces poison vaccines on the ignorant every day, is in bed with criminal (P)Harma and run by psychopathic bureaucrats (USA's Dr. Fauci)  and doctors who diabolically danced their way through the Covid scam while mass murdering their patients.

What about the Courts where malevolent political wigs collude with crooked lawyers every day to steal children, homes, businesses and farms from innocent Irish families while writing off debt worth millions of euros from their golden circle? Debt that will be forced on the backs of your children and grandchildren, and is fueling inflation.

DYI:  Our run away national debt machine here in the good old USA!

Back to Gemma:   

What about the legislature which devotes its time to concocting illegal diktats to control the speech and thoughts of the Irish people while demanding to know what they do with their income and private properties, fleecing their wealth through taxation, bringing in hordes of illegal aliens and turning Ireland into a Third World dump?

How about the Gardai, described by whistleblower John Wilson as the biggest criminal gang in the country, who are importing drugs into Ireland to destroy the young - as per the Communist manifesto - framing innocent people and behaving like coked-up thugs in their fabricated ‘far right’ psyops used to manipulate the clueless public?

DYI:  Police departments continue to this day with asset forfeiture instead of arresting the individual they actually (I'm not kidding) arrest their property.  Zero due process and then they have to sue the police department (despite never committing a crime) to recover their property!

Between DHS/FEMA are running mass shooting drills especially at public schools then promoting through the mass media as real (fake shooting events) in order to achieve two ends that benefit the super rich.  

1.) The masses believe this is promote gun control despite any gun restrictions are knock down by the courts repeatedly.  The rich are actually promoting gun sales - a high profit margin business - as they fool gun owners or perspective gun owners to purchase additional firearms (and all things related) before draconian laws are past into law which never happens or is struck down by the courts repeatedly.

2.)  Sales people are talking to school boards around the country selling all of their security products and services in order to protect children from another staged, FAKED, mass shooting!

This is big business as the U.S. has 13,452 regular school districts and 21,548 private schools plus 6,000 colleges and universities that all have multiple buildings.  This is big business all promoted by a scam of one fake mass shooting after another to terrorize children and their parents!  

Back to Gemma:    

Then there’s the State-sponsored media whose sole purpose is to brainwash and gaslight those still naive enough to watch it. Just think of the damage it has done to this country.

DYI:  Our main stream press is State-sponsored media as they are all in (those at the top) everything that is hoaxed or faked.  Faked shootings, fake trials, fake illnesses such as COVID and the big hoaxed/faked 9-11!

Back to Gemma:

Knowing all of this, do you really still believe that the State is there to serve you and is capable of running clean elections? Do you really think that the monsters who have ruined Ireland are going to allow their minions to vote them out in exchange for real opposition? If you do, you’re deluded and in a trauma bond with Big Daddy Government, no different to a battered wife who remains with her violent husband.

DYI:  Dominion voting machines are now so easily manipulated rigging elections is now common place as far as I'm concerned.  All to keep you involved and believing in the system.  A close race but never so close that voters demand a recount thus possibly showcasing vote rigging and even if they do the mainstream media will never report this evidence!

Back to Gemma:

If you’re confused about what to do tomorrow, here is the solution. Ignore the farce. Bin your voting card and walk away. If millions of us refused to vote, the State and its puppetician dictators would know that the sheep have finally woken up to their game and are no longer willing players. That would send shock waves through the system because it would prove that the people are no longer willing to be obedient servants and may assert themselves again into their rightful place as masters in charge of their own destiny. That is a terrifying prospect for the State.

In a tiny country like Ireland, we can manage perfectly fine without government. Wouldn’t you like to hold on to all of your wages? What exactly does the State do except lie, cheat and steal from you? Fraud vitiates all contracts. And the Irish State is a self-serving fraudulent entity that despises the Irish people. The social contract is broken. Let the State collapse as the Crown did in Ireland 100 years ago.

Anyone who is still telling you to vote in this rigged system is controlled opposition. The ballot boxes have long since been tallied with fictional votes to ensure the regime remains in place.

Refuse to participate in organized crime. Refuse to participate in elections. Stop feeding the enemy. When we walk away en masse, we are walking towards the end of our slavery. If there is one group of people who can do this, it is the Irish. Stop being bullied and controlled by sleazy conmen in dark suits and gowns. We are the 99%. They are on the run. Let’s keep them that way and drive them over the cliff before the rollout of their One World Government goes much further.

Thank You Gemma

 The

Long Awaited Recession?

Continued Unemployment Claims Increase Another 9,000, It’s Recession Looking

From Mish Talk

DYI:  Looks like Christmas sales is going to be a bust.  The question is how big of a bust!??

Listeria Hysteria! CDC confessed: we have no scientific evidence of listeria monocytogenes causing illness in people or animals Christine Massey FOIs Dec 29 Note: this article has nothing to do with whether or not health conditions exist. No one is questioning whether or not sick people or animals actually get sick. The issue is the alleged cause of their health conditions. “Germ” explanations serve as a distraction and cover story (convenient and profitable for some) for harm caused by other factors (i.e. stress, pollution, malnutrition, toxins, medical “care” including quacker jack-cines and other pharmaceuticals). I filed a FOIA request (page 1) with the CDC and the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) for: Prevention (CDC) and/or the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) and/or the people who are responsible for the CDC's claim that listeria monocytogenes can cause fever, flu-like symptoms, headache, stiff neck, confusion, loss of balance, seizures, diarrhea, vomiting and/or death, that: used purified bacterial cultures to scientifically prove or provide evidence of causation of any type of illness or death in animals or people.” As usual, I asked that if any records match the above description and are currently available elsewhere, I be provided citations so that I may identify and access them. August 16, 2024: Roger Andoh acting as FOIA Officer in the Office of the Chief Operating Officer confessed that the “experts” at the CDC and ATSDR have no such studies/reports: “A search of our records failed to reveal any documents pertaining to your request.  A search of FoodNet data for requested criteria yielded no responsive results.” (Note: this information has been sent to ~200 people who work for “the state”, lamestream media, etc. at Canada, Isle of Man, England and the U.S., so that they can’t claim later that they didn’t know. It will also be sent to people who act in the Canadian “justice” system… that has falsely prosecuted people in relation to “germs”.) Thank You Christine Massey! A wonderful Canadian doing the Lord's work! A true TRUTH SEEKER! For more information (Video) see The Listeria Hysteria by Dr. Samantha Bailey. Till Next Time!

 

15+ Years of

Rising Interest Rates?

DYI:  As chief cook and bottle washer of this blog I’ve been investing for 50 years – I’m 70 years old and how in the hell did THAT happen – IMO the secular decline for interest rates that began 9-30-1981 with 10 year T-bonds at 15.84% ended 8-4-2020 with 10 year T-bonds at %0.52!

From now on as we move through the business cycles during growth periods will experience higher highs and during recessions with HIGHER LOWS.

If history is any sort of guide we can expect rising rates in a saw tooth manner over the next 15+ years!  The Boomer’s created a worldwide savings glut that drove rates down (along with Fed interventions) to sub atomic low levels and maintained that for over two decades. 

That was then, this is now, until the Boomer generation has passed on (hey that’s me your talking about!) PLUS the Millennial generation move into their prime savings thus over whelming the small population of Generational X savings I wouldn’t expect any possible lessening of rates until 2040!

Please remember this will occur through the business cycles of higher highs then declines to higher lows.

Till Next Time    

Stock remain vastly overvalued; Gold is stand out value; Lt. term bonds yield is trading at their long term average!

 

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 1/1/25

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

30% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

45% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **

 25% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.

**************************************************************************************

 

Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.

"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:

Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]

Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........37.35
Bond Rate...5.31%

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

2.00+ Stocks on the give-away-table!

1.75+ Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30+ Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

0.50 or less:  Stock Market Crash Alert!  

Purchase 30 year Treasury Bonds! 

Current EYC Ratio: 0.55(rounded)

As of  1-1-25
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com

Bond Rate is the rate as reported by

Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX)

DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.

Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

**************************************************************************************

%
Stocks & Bonds

Allocation Formula

1-1-2025
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]

Formula's answer determines bond allocation.

Current PE10.....37.35

Avg. PE10...........17.19

Core Bond Allocation:  128% 

% Stock Allocation     0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation  100% (rounded)

Current Asset: Vanguard Long-Term Investment Grade Bond Fund   

Logic behind this approach:

--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 

--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.

Current Allocation:

Vanguard Long Term Investment Grade Bond Fund

Possible Allocations to Bonds vs Stocks:

Bonds %

100%+  Vanguard Long Term Investment Grade Bond Fund 

99% to 65% Wellesley Income Fund

64% to 35% 1/2 Wellesley Income Fund - 1/2 Wellington Fund

34% to 0%  Wellington Fund

  

DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

A value based allocation strategy

February 19, 2010 by John Kingham