The Future is Now 

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

While the evidence may be alarming to some, make no mistake: The median price/revenue multiple for S&P 500 constituents is now significantly higher than at the 2000 market peak. The average price/revenue multiple across S&P 500 constituents is now above every point in that bubble except the first and third quarters of 2000. Only the capitalization-weighted price/revenue multiple – presently at about 1.7 – is materially below the price/revenue multiple of 2.2 reached at the 2000 peak. That’s largely because S&P 500 market capitalization was dominated by high price/revenue technology stocks in 2000. [Geek's Note: as a result, if one chooses a universe of stocks by first sorting by market capitalization, one will probably find that price/revenue multiples of those stocks are lower today than in 2000]. Regardless, the historical norm for the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 price/revenue ratio is only about 0.80, less than half of present levels. The fact is that unless current record-high profit margins turn out to be permanent, against all historical experience to the contrary, the overvaluation of the broad equity market is equal or more extreme today than it was at the 2000 bubble peak.

DYI Comments: The Fed's once again have engineered through their sub atomic low interest rates have blown another market bubble.  With interest rates so low when the market begins to collapse they will be out of ammo for all they will be able to do is watch the market drop. DYI's forecast remains the same for a 45% to 60% decline in the S&P 500.

Our portfolio remains the same:

Active Allocation Bands 10% to 60%

45% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VGPMX

25% -Gold- Precious Metals & Mining - VBIRX

20% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

10% -Stocks- Equity Income Fund - VEIPX

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DYI