Russian officials have mused openly about the prospects of a de facto takeover of the country’s Far East by Chinese immigrants (legal and illegal alike) reports Joshua Kucera. But a booming Chinese economy and disaffection with Moscow might actually be pushing Russians the other way.
China’s presence can be felt all over Blagoveshchensk, a Russian city 5,600 kilometres east of Moscow but only just across the Amur River from China. There are students learning Chinese, plenty of Chinese-manufactured clothes and electronics in the stores, and Chinese restaurants serving stir-fried potatoes chased down with vodka. Yet you won’t find many Chinese people here.
Indeed, according to a United Nations survey, Russia’s population could fall by a third over the next 40 years. And the prospects in Siberia and the Far East are even grimmer, as residents move in droves to the warmer climate and better economy of European Russia: the population of Russia east of Lake Baikal dropped from 8 million to 6 million from 1998 through 2002, and has continued to fall since.
Compounding this are growing signs that Russians in the Far East are becoming disaffected with Moscow. There’s a widespread feeling in the area that the central government treats the Far East like a colony. Last year that tension boiled over in Vladivostok, when the government moved to shut down the thriving Japanese car-import business in that city, in order to prop up domestic car manufacturers (who are located in European Russia). The resulting protests were so serious that the government flew in riot troops from Moscow to quell them, apparently not trusting the loyalty of local forces.
The Russian government also has taken measures to strengthen Russian control over the Far East. It has introduced a program of incentives for ethnic Russians from Central Asia to move to the Russian Far East. They’ve also tried to mitigate the problem of the vast distance between the Far East and European Russia: Vladivostok, on the Pacific Ocean, is a seven-day train ride from Moscow, and seven time zones away. So the Russian government has subsidized airfares for some Russians in the Far East to travel to Moscow, and has proposed decreasing the number of time zones in the country to three or four so that business people and bureaucrats at both ends of the country could work more easily together.
Because of China’s economic advantages over Russia, some scholars are actually now predicting that, instead of a Chinese invasion of Russia, the reverse may happen. While long-term economic predictions are risky, it seems likely that Russia’s economy, whose current boom is dependent on a (finite) supply of petroleum resources, will eventually be slowed by demographic decline. Meanwhile, China’s economy looks set, for now at least, to remain strong even as demographic projections show China’s population leveling off over the next several decades. As a result, it’s not hard to imagine Russians moving to China for better job opportunities.
| Country | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
|---|
| Russia | 1.25 | 1.27 | 1.3 | 1.33 | 1.26 | 1.27 | 1.28 | 1.39 | 1.4 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.42 | 1.61 |
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| Country | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
|---|
| China | 1.82 | 1.82 | 1.82 | 1.7 | 1.69 | 1.72 | 1.73 | 1.75 | 1.77 | 1.79 | 1.54 | 1.54 | 1.55 |
Definition of Total fertility rate: This entry gives a figure for the average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given fertility rate at each age. The total fertility rate (TFR) is a more direct measure of the level of fertility than the crude birth rate, since it refers to births per woman. This indicator shows the potential for population change in the country. A rate of two children per woman is considered the replacement rate for a population, resulting in relative stability in terms of total numbers. Rates above two children indicate populations growing in size and whose median age is declining. Higher rates may also indicate difficulties for families, in some situations, to feed and educate their children and for women to enter the labor force. Rates below two children indicate populations decreasing in size and growing older. Global fertility rates are in general decline and this trend is most pronounced in industrialized countries, especially Western Europe, where populations are projected to decline dramatically over the next 50 years.
So, does all of this portend a future of Russians in the Far East moving en masse south to China? It’s too early to know for sure. But today’s trends suggest this is more likely than a Chinese mass migration north.
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Robert Farley’s comprehensive guide to stealing a frigate (spoiler: it’s “absurdly difficult”).
The theft of an entire warship would also be remarkably difficult to hide. Unless the entire crew were involved, the people left onshore would sound the alarm. The ship likely would not have access to its full suite of defensive systems, making it a sitting duck for sinking or recapture. Moreover, while the victimized navy might want its ship back intact, other navies are unlikely to have a sense of humor about a pirate-operated warship, and would probably attempt to sink or disable the ship at the earliest opportunity.
A report by UBS said the latest reactors will be obsolete by within 10 to 20 years, yet Britain is locking in prices until 2060
The Alvin Weinberg Foundation in London is tracking seven proposals across the world for molten salt reactors (MSRs) rather than relying on solid uranium fuel. Unlike conventional reactors, these operate at atmospheric pressure. They do not need vast reinforced domes. There is no risk of blowing off the top.
The reactors are more efficient. They burn up 30 times as much of the nuclear fuel and can run off spent fuel. The molten salt is inert so that even if there is a leak, it cools and solidifies. The fission process stops automatically in an accident. There can be no chain-reaction, and therefore no possible disaster along the lines of Chernobyl or Fukushima. That at least is the claim.
The most revolutionary design is by British scientists at Moltex. "I started this three years ago because I was so shocked that EDF was being paid 9.25p per kWh for electricity," said Ian Scott, the chief inventor. "We believe we can achieve parity with gas (in the UK) at 5.5p, and our real goal is to reach 3.5p and drive coal of out of business," he said.
DYI
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