Thursday, March 26, 2015

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Retail Sales

Retail Sales fell again in February, down 0.58%, the third month of decline and substantially below estimates. The inflation-adjusted data, using the seasonally-adjusted Consumer Price Index, came in even worse at -0.80%. The chart below gives us a close look at the monthly data points in this series since 2009. I've included a linear regression to help us identify the trend.
 
DYI Comments:  Things are becoming interesting as the possibility of a recession call nears.  A global equity and junk bond bubble all that is needed is an event (recession?) for the pin to find the bubble and pop it.  Hold onto your hat and cash as better values are ahead of us.

The Great Wait Continues...
DYI

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