Monday, November 23, 2015

Like most folks we all like a happy ending to this downturn but please to insinuate that the economy is in full blown prosperity is preposterous.

ECONOMIST: 'Jobs market is literally on fire in most states in the union'

The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi's chief financial economist, Chris Rupkey, circulated an email after the report with the title "Jobs market is literally on fire in most states in the union." The email maintains that optimistic tone and suggests that the geographically broad strength of the labor market could spur the Fed to tighten monetary policy at its December meeting:
DYI Comments:  Like most folks we all like a happy ending to this downturn but please to insinuate that the economy is in full blown prosperity is preposterous.
   
Until I see concrete upward movement in the labor participation rate all this happy talk is nothing more than "happy talk!"

The market and the economy have been in a complete disconnect since 1999 either the economy goes into full blown prosperity in order for sales, earnings, and dividends to catch up to valuation or the market takes a dive.
 

Current Copper Price Below Cost of Production

Dr. Copper is telling a different story of a world economy that is cooling off and very possibly moving into recession.  DYI will maintain our investment stance based upon long term valuation norms.  Currently today based on price to dividends the S&P 500 is 113% above its long term average(since 1871).  Our averaging formula has "kick us out" of the stock market and for good reason as valuation have long since left planet earth.
Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION -  11/1/15

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 60%
79% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
17% -Gold- Precious Metals & Mining - VGPMX
 4% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
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DYI

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