Saturday, December 31, 2022

DYI:  The U.S. stock market remains vastly overvalued for a very long period of time all generated by insane fiscal and monetary policies.  Anyone who has studied markets seriously the greater the upside insanity the greater the fall bringing down market valuations from speculation to investment merits.

It saddens me to witness our wonderful country in the hands of organized crime.  They are now so brazen they don't care how many of citizens see it.  Name a government agency, government institution, or private sector and massive corruption will be seen with all of the players walking away with millions, billions, and now even trillions!  How this will play out?  I don't know.  What I do know when the corruption is at its worse the U.S. stock market will be at a massive low.         

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 1/1/23

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
29% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
50% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **
 21% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]
** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

 This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.
This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!
The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.
The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.
Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.


Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.
"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:
Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]
Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........28.09
Bond Rate...4.97%
EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

1.75 plus: Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30 Plus: Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

Current EYC Ratio: 0.79(rounded)
As of  1-1-23
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com
DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.
Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.
Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

%
Stocks & Bonds
Allocation Formula
1-1-23
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]
Formula's answer determines bond allocation.


% Stock Allocation    6% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation  94% (rounded) 

Logic behind this approach:
--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 
--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  
Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.        
  
DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.
This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!
The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.
The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.
Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

Wednesday, December 28, 2022

 

This is the tip of the iceberg

You will find the same in Republican or Democratic parties plus in all top levels of Academia, Medicine, Law, Science, Business, etc.

Corruption is now standard throughout all top levels in American society the players all have one common thread they are Jewish.  We are being looted by the Jewish organized crime syndicate.   

We're all Palestinian's now.

(1) Kamala Harris, Jewish husband Doug Emhoff.
(2) Janet Yellin, Jewish Secretary Treasury.
(3) Anthony Blinken, Jewish Secretary of State.
(4) Robert Klain, Jewish Chief of Staff.
(5) Merrick Garland, Jewish Attorney General.
(6) David Cohen, Jewish Deputy Director CIA.
(7) Alejandro Mayorkas, Jewish Secretary Homeland Security.
(8) Avril Haines, Jewish Director National Intelligence.
(9) Rochelle P. Walensky, Jewish CDC Director.
(10) Victoria Nuland, Jewish Secretary State Political Affairs.
(11) Eric Lander, Jewish Office of Science Technology.
(12) Jeffry Zeints, Jewish Covid Czar.
(13) Rachel Levine, Jewish Assistant Health Secretary.
(14) and (15) Cass Sunstein, Jewish Senior Counselor at the Department of Homeland Security, and his wife, Samantha Power, Head of USAID.
(16) Dana Stroul, Jewish Pentagon Senior Policy Official on the Middle East.
(17) Wendy Sherman, Jewish Deputy Secretary of State.
(18) Anne Neuberger, Jewish Director of Cybersecurity at NSA.
(19) Chanan Weissman, Jewish Director of Technology at National Security Council.
(20) Avril Haines, Jewish Director of National Intelligence.
(21) Polly Trottenberg, Jewish Deputy Secretary of Transportation.
(22) Jessica Rosenworce,l Jewish Acting Chairwoman FCC.
(23) Jennifer Klein, Jewish Co-Chair of the Gender Policy Council.
(24) Jared Bernstein, Jewish Member of Council of Economic Advisers.(25) David Kessler, Jewish Chief Science Officer of COVID Response.
(26) Stephanie Pollack, Jewish Deputy Administrator Federal Highway Administration.
(27) Gary Gensler, Jewish Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
(28) John Kerry U.S Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, family name change Kohn (Cohen) to Kerry.
(29) Pete Buttigeig (Zionist gay proxy warrior)

Jews in USA positions related to the Plandemic operation and Jew jab clot shots.

Biden Administration Chief Science Officer of COVID Response David Kessler, Jew.
Former Director of Operation Warp Speed.CDC Director, Rochelle Walensky, Jew.
CDC Deputy Director, Ann Schucat, Jew.CDC Chief of Staff, Sherri Berger, Jew.
CDC Chief Medical Officer, Mitchell Wolfe, Jew.
CDC Director, Washington Office, Jeff Reczek, Jew.
COVID Czar, Jeff Zients, Jew.
HHS Secretary, Xavier Becerra, Jew.
HHS Ass.Secretary, Rachel (prev Richard) Levine, Trans-gender, Jew.
Pfizer Ceo: Albert Bourla , Jew, He passed on jab (not needed his age, but now for kids). Moderna's Vaccine Creator: Tal Zaks , Israeli Jew (Oct 1, 2021 went to TEVA).
Current STEPHANE BANCEL Jew (billionaire).
Johnson & Johnson Ceo: Alex Gorsky, Jew.
Astrazeneca Ceo: Pascal Soriot, Jew.

Thursday, December 15, 2022

Just as China had their opium war the U.S. is experiencing our Fentanyl war. Genocide two front attack vaccines and fentanyl.

 Don’t Trust Government(s)

Avoid Mainstream Media

Fight the Lies!

The Fentanyl Crisis is not an Accident

it is another genocide

Miles Mathis

First published December 12, 2022:

Like the Covid and vaccine deaths, the Fentanyl genocide was/is not an accident. It is mass murder once again by Big Pharma, and it wasn't done just for profit since Pharma is only half the equation. Behind Pharma is an even more evil entity: the Phoenicians who want you dead.

Yes, as usual I will not beat around the bush here. The time for that is past. I am going to tell you how it is and I am going to tell you in the opening paragraph. If you want politic words and longwinded proofs and pages of statistics, you can go to others for that. They exist all over the place and easy to find. 

The evidence already stacks to the Moon that the middle class is being targeted, both financially and physically.

Some of that evidence is covert and some is overt. Meaning, some is right out in the open while some is hiding under a shallow frosting of lies, but isn't hard to find once you pull the blinders off and start looking.

What started me writing was news today that Walgreens and CVS have agreed to pay $10.7 billion to settle lawsuits against them for cooperating in and profiting from the opioid crisis. I knew something like that was going on, but it hadn't ever penetrated my skull until now, I guess. I don't even take aspirin, so stories about drug crises don't really register with me. I have trouble comprehending the whole event from either side, predator or victim. I still don't really understand how these places could be involved, because I had always assumed this was a street drug thing, with users being sold the drugs by illegal pushers. Hence the big drug busts, where we see ICE or Interpol bagging ten tons of Meth or Fentanyl pills or something. I assumed they weren't finding those in the backrooms at CVS. So I looked it up. The first thing that came up on a general search was this story from CBS in 2020 from San Francisco, where a Walgreen's pharmacist had been arrested for impersonating a pharmacist and illegally filling 745,000 prescriptions over eleven years. Over 100,000 of those were for opioids.

But the story makes no sense on any level. We are told the pharmacist pled not guilty and has not yet been convicted, so why did Walgreens agree to settle? You would expect them to wait for a verdict. Also, how do you impersonate a pharmacist? According to the story, she was previously a licensed pharmacy tech, but her license expired in 2008. This lady then used the license number of someone else with the same name to keep working. That sounds very unlikely. It sounds like cover for something else to me. And, even if true, that doesn't make the prescriptions illegal. As long as a doctor prescribed them, they are legal. You could not promote an opioid crisis with such a paper technicality, and I fail to see how Walgreens could have caught the fraud or be liable for it: which is exactly the point of this article. That is what they want you to think. 

The whole story is being spun to make Walgreens and the doctors involved look innocent, putting all the blame on this rogue pharmacist.

But with or without a license, all this pharmacist did was fill a legal prescription—at least according to the story. So how do you promote an opioid epidemic by filling valid prescriptions? 

That question is never asked in the article, much less answered. 

Also, the number doesn't seem to work at a glance, does it? Eleven years times 365 days is 4015 days, divided into 745,000 prescriptions, is 185 per day. But she probably only worked five days a week, which would give us 260 per day, or 37 per hour, or about one every two minutes. Have you been to Walgreens? Does it take about two minutes to get your order? And is there only one lady working there at a time? No, they admit she was—at best—a pharmacy tech, which means she would be supervised by a pharmacist. Which means she wouldn't get credit for every prescription filled every minute.

If Walgreens and CVS are admitting guilt here, it can't just be for a few unlicensed pharmacy techs filling real prescriptions. There must be a concerted effort by everyone involved—doctors, pharmacies, big companies, governments, and regulators—to promote this genocide. It simply could not happen otherwise.

So why would government entities later prosecute these companies for fraud? 

I can only guess: one party decided after the fact to turn on the other parties and shake them down for part of their share.

Like bank robbers after a job. In return for keeping the sums low and spinning the blame onto minor players, as we saw in San Francisco, those parties agree play ball. And the public is given the impression something is being done, while almost nothing is.

Is paying a fine really the correct remedy to this? Hundreds of thousands of people have been murdered for profit or worse things than profit, and that is supposed to be remedied by fining these companies a few billions? No, when someone kills another person with a gun or knife, we don't fine him a few thousand and tell him to go home, do we? So why are the directors of these companies still on the streets?

Why are their chief medical officers still on the streets? I also re-watched Tucker Carlson's interview with Dr. Malhotra today, and there we are reminded that Vioxx killed 60,000 Americans, more than Vietnam. In a settlement, Merck paid about $600 million to be released from civil liability in the US, a tiny fraction of profits. And after fees only $9,000 per death. Your husband is dead? Here's $9,000, beat it! 

It later came out that Merck knew the lethal side effects of Vioxx and that data had been fabricated, but went ahead with its sales anyway.

The Malhotra interview is very damning for Pharma and the medical profession, but he actually spends a lot of the interview defusing this bomb (of the vaccines as well as Vioxx). Although he allegedly lost his father to the vaccine, he doesn't seem very angry about it. I find his sangfroid maddening, and also suspicious.

As usual, he is sure to tell us he took the vaccine, and we see he isn't sick or dead, so that is a defusing right there. I am not sure I believe it. I would assume he didn't take it. He then tells us that pre-Covid vaccines are one of the safest things ever, so he is again generally pro-vax: highly suspicious since it isn't true.

These mRNA “vaccines” are the worst, but many (perhaps all) previous vaccines have been oversold or dangerous, and not just for their mercury or other adjuvants. 

But his comment that really jumped out at me came later in the interview at min. 38:30,

 where he says the problem is a “pandemic of misinformed doctors, and misinformed and unwittingly harmed patients”.

 Really? Unwittingly? So it was all just another honest mistake, eh, Dr. Malhotra?

These doctors didn't know any better? It wasn't outrageous and malevolent fraud, promulgated at best for profit and at worst as an abetting of mass murder? But Malhotra had already said that this huge vaccine crisis had come down from some great “psychopathic entity”, which he had implied was at the corporate level if not higher.

So, again, do you stop a huge psychopathic entity by slapping it on the wrist? That can only encourage further psychopathy and murder, which is exactly what we have seen: accelerating levels of raw criminality. 

At this point, not convicting these mass murderers is the same as abetting them.

When Malhotra starts backpeddling and softselling this as due to bias and conflicts of interest, he seems to me to be framing this as far less than it is, for the benefit of his promoters. He was paid to defuse this bomb by admitting what we already know but trying to talk us down from the obvious solution.

We see it again later when Tucker points out that the US seemed to encourage obesity during the pandemic rather than discourage it, by closing gyms, etc., despite it being known obesity was the leading co-morbidity. He says he doesn't believe this was part of a planned population reduction, but asks Malhotra to explain it. Malhotra says it is due to “the corporate capture of public health” and again tries to pass it off as conflicts of interest. Conflicts of interest? He says Gates was also invested in McDonalds and Coke, so that somehow explains it. These people wanted to make money from vaccines and junk food at the same time: genocide explained away. Malhotra literally says that and then drops it, as if he has answered Tucker's question, and they move on. But Tucker somehow fails to notice that doesn't refute the genocide theory, it confirms it. These people were invested in junk food because they knew that promoting it was a plank of the genocide: keep everyone at home living on Dominoes pizza and Coke. Mandate all the upper-end restaurants to close so that people would be forced to drive thru Wendys or Taco Bell. Close all the Mom&Pop stores so people would be forced to shop at Walmart: then you only have to poison Walmart.

From there the interview sort of unwinds, as both Malhotra and Tucker play dumb, pretending they don't understand how this worked, how it happened, or what can be done. Tucker continues to say that people are basically good, which isn't to the point, obviously. This isn't about people in general, it is about the psychopaths, so I don't know why he and Malhotra can't stay on target. Or, actually, I am pretty sure I do know: it is more misdirection.

In the closing minutes, Malhotra actually says that if Trump knew what he knew, he would flip his position on vaccines. Except that we are almost three years out on Covid, so it is kind of late for Trump or anyone else to be claiming ignorance. If Trump doesn't already know what Malhotra knows, we can only call him grossly incompetent or senile. Nothing Malhotra is saying is new: it has been up at places like Infowars and Zerohedge for a year and a half and could have been intuited by anyone with a brain long before that. Nothing Malhotra is saying is new to me, though he passes it off as fresh off the medical presses. Plus, this interview is a couple of weeks old and we know Trump watches Tucker. There is no way he isn't aware of it. Has Trump rushed to Twitter or Social to admit his mistake? No, and he won't, because he has been in on this genocide from the start.

But back to the opioid crisis. It is prong two of this attack on worldwide populations, dwarfed somewhat by the vaccines, but still incredibly potent. The setting in San Francisco of the pharmacist story reminded me of my research on Haight-Ashbury for my Manson/Tate paper, where I found government agents had been planted there to disseminate many dangerous drugs through whatever means possible: fake prescriptions, passing them out at parties, introducing them through Esalen and other CIA fronts, the works. And not just LSD, but also PCP, STP, and everything else. It later came out in leaks and department declassifications that this was a targeted attack, planned for years by a consortium of government agencies, at the behest of. . . some great hidden psychopathic entity that was at the reins of the CIA, FBI, DIA, Justice, and even local police. So this goes back many decades, and San Francisco was an early hub. CIA has grown exponentially since the 1960s, and it has now taken over everything. It can place people anywhere it likes. . . and that anywhere of course includes pharmacies. So I think what we are seeing here is evidence government drug pushers have actually inserted themselves into major pharmacy chains. What better way to achieve their goals directly? If doctors refuse to prescribe these deadly drugs, or aren't keeping up with orders in any way, the drugs can be dispensed with forged signatures and any other fraudulent paperwork required. At that point the street pushers of the 1960s have moved indoors, with a Walgreens or CVS pharmacy sign over their heads to lend the legitimacy. Do the users care one way or the other? No. Once they have been hooked, they no longer care about legal or illegal, street or pharmacy. All they care about is their fix.

But for those just getting snared, the apparent legitimacy of the pharmacy is a great convenience. For the levels of genocide envisioned by the Great Psychopath, street pushing was not enough. It requires the cooperation and infiltration of all non-governmental institutions, from schools and universities to hospitals, pharmacies, groceries, malls, and cinemas. It requires a full-spectrum implementation.

This is what is happening and you would have to already be zonked on some drug cocktail not to see it. And there is only one solution: prosecute these maniacs to the fullest extent of the law, either locking them in some deep dark dungeon filled with rats, or throwing them from the nearest cliffs in a vast civic ceremony of cleansing. Anything short of that will just send the signal to the next round of psychopaths to murder even more of us in the next wave. The plans are already in place for that, so you better decide quickly.

Added last minute: Watching Tucker Carlson tonight I learned you can kill yourself with opioids over-the-counter now, buying them at the grocery store or minimart under the name Za-Za or Tianaa, aka gas station heroin. It is a 46 billion dollar industry killing people right and left, but our vaunted FDA is doing. . . nothing, of course. There are existing laws against this, but no one at any level— Justice, FBI, attorneys general, or DAs—are doing anything about it. Why? I just told you: they want you dead.

Thank You Miles!

DYI 

Tuesday, December 6, 2022

 The

Great

Unravelling 

The Death of Western Civilization

Paul Craig Roberts

Alex Jones is demonized for giving us information that otherwise is withheld from us.  Here are white Dutch policemen suppressing with violence the peaceful protests of the white Dutch farmers who feed them.  

The white Dutch farmers are facing confiscation of their farms on the fabricated grounds that their cows contribute to global emissions that allegedly are causing global warming.  

In other words, if you drink milk, you are destroying the earth. 

 https://www.infowars.com/posts/shock-video-netherlands-police-use-heavy-machinery-to-overturn-tractors-with-farmers-inside/ 

For who are the Dutch police acting?  It turns out that the Dutch policemen are acting against the Dutch farmers who feed them for the sole benefit of the propaganda of the Fascist World Economic Forum, financed by Bill Gats, George Soros and the rest of the rich who are alienated from Western civilization, infused as it is with Christianity that values human life and the human soul. Over the decades the WEF has taught Western governments and large corporations, those with political power, that freedom comes from terminating private property.  The WEA’s motto is: “You will own nothing, and you will be happy.” By owning nothing, the WEA means your own soul as well.

The question is why do the Dutch Farmers and the rest of the heavily oppressed Western World’s populations, whether the oppression is from Covid mandates, speech restrictions, property confiscations, job loss, or school indoctrination of white children against parents and their race, bother with peaceful protests when the state has made it completely clear that the state has no concern whatsoever with public opinion.  The Dutch farmers are suffering the same fate as the truckers in Canada and Trump supporters in America.

DYI:  The time has long since past especially for the Netherlands and Central Europe for any sort of peaceful protests.  Flat out in your face non-compliance is the order of the day in other words the biggest "fuck you" backed up by force.  Since the police and military are so well armed gorilla tactics is the order of the day.  

Everywhere in the Western World governments act as if they are unaccountable to those they rule.  If you demand accountability from government, it is you, not government, who is the Fascist and “the threat to democracy.” Parents demanding accountability from school boards are thrown out of the meetings. 

When the protection of the First Amendment to the US Constitution–free speech–can be denied to the President of the United States while he is in office by media, who dares to speak freely?

DYI:  Here is the U.S. due to our massive propaganda machine the main stream press and media outlets our citizens have been slow in their awakening process.  However there is hope as the numbers begin to rise to the evil that is before us.  Here in north Georgia - home of the now removed Guide Stones - I have conversations with folks I've never met before who are at some elevated level to this tyranny past and present.  We've not hit critical mass but as the awaken numbers grow so will will the speed increase as well.       

The West is dead.  It was destroyed by liberals who infused the West with self-doubt.  Oppressed Western peoples, such as the Dutch farmers, are so oppressed that violent resistance never occurs to them.  All peaceful protests achieve is to identify dissidents to the government, as in Canada where the truckers’ protest identified leaders for the Fascist Trudeau to arrest.  

In the Western World liberty is lost.  Only the removal of the ruling elite could restore it.  But the demonized people lack the confidence to save themselves.  

DYI:  Mr. Roberts I hope you are wrong.  But God bless you for the excellent article!

DYI

Thursday, December 1, 2022

 

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 12/1/22

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
22% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
50% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **
 28% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]
** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

 This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.
This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!
The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.
The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.
Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.


Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.
"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:
Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]
Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........29.90
Bond Rate...5.01%
EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

1.75 plus: Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30 Plus: Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

Current EYC Ratio: 0.73(rounded)
As of  12-1-22
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com
DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.
Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.
Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

%
Stocks & Bonds
Allocation Formula
12-1-22
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]
Formula's answer determines bond allocation.


% Stock Allocation    0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation 100% (rounded) 

Logic behind this approach:
--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 
--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  
Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.        
  
DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.
This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!
The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.
The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.
Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.