DYI: The U.S. stock market remains vastly overvalued for a very long period of time all generated by insane fiscal and monetary policies. Anyone who has studied markets seriously the greater the upside insanity the greater the fall bringing down market valuations from speculation to investment merits.
It saddens me to witness our wonderful country in the hands of organized crime. They are now so brazen they don't care how many of citizens see it. Name a government agency, government institution, or private sector and massive corruption will be seen with all of the players walking away with millions, billions, and now even trillions! How this will play out? I don't know. What I do know when the corruption is at its worse the U.S. stock market will be at a massive low.
Updated Monthly
AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 1/1/23
Margin of Safety!
Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.
"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."
Stocks compared to bonds:
Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]
Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.
PE10 .........28.09
Bond Rate...4.97%
PE10 .........28.09
Bond Rate...4.97%
EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate
1.75 plus: Safe for large lump sums & DCA
1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.
1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds
Current EYC Ratio: 0.79(rounded)
As of 1-1-23
Updated Monthly
Updated Monthly
PE10 as report by Multpl.com
Bond Rate is the rate as reported by
Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX)
DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.
Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.
Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety. The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....
Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham
%
Stocks & Bonds
Allocation FormulaStocks & Bonds
1-1-23
Updated Monthly
Updated Monthly
% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4) / (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]
Formula's answer determines bond allocation.
Current PE10.....28.09
% Stock Allocation 6% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation 94% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation 94% (rounded)
Logic behind this approach:
--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk.
--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.
Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10). The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70. However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.
DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average. Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities. So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.
Please note: I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.
Please note: I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.
DYI
The Formula.
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The Formula.
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