Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 1/1/24

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

31% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

50% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **

 19% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.

"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:

Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]

Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........32.27
Bond Rate...4.86%

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

1.75 plus: Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30 Plus: Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

Current EYC Ratio: 0.70(rounded)

As of  1-1-24
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com

Bond Rate is the rate as reported by

Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX)

DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.

Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

%
Stocks & Bonds

Allocation Formula

1-1-24
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]

Formula's answer determines bond allocation.

Current PE10.....32.27

Avg. PE10...........17.07

% Stock Allocation     0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation  100% (rounded) 

Logic behind this approach:

--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 

--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 25 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.        

  

DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

A value based allocation strategy

February 19, 2010 by John Kingham

 The 

Federal Reserve has so completely normalized speculative excess  

They are no longer even recognized as extremes. 

The Fed's Empire of Speculation and the Echoes of 1929

Speculation has its own expiration dynamics, and they don't depend on us recognizing speculative excess for what it is.

CHARLES HUGH SMITH

DEC 19, 2023

The primary mechanism is obvious to all: whenever the equity market falters, the Fed unleashes a flood tide of liquidity, i.e. fresh currency, that rushes into the market at the top--corporations, banks and financiers--because the Fed distributes the fresh liquidity solely into the top tier of market players.

The Fed's ability to conjure up liquidity in a variety of ways appears limitless: expand its balance sheet (QE), use the reverse repo market and bank reserves, launch new lending mechanisms, and so on.

The Fed has long relied on useful fictions to mask its agenda. One useful fiction is that the Fed is independent and apolitical. Despite being risibly shopworn, this mirth-inducing fiction is still dutifully trotted out by every Fed chairperson.

Another useful fiction is that the Fed's mandate focuses on promoting stable expansion of the economy, not the equity market. This masks the reality everyone knows and acts on, which is the market isn't a reflection of the economy, it is the economy.

DYI:  When this speculative party ends is anyone guess; but when it does pop the multi-year grind down will be brutal and most importantly relentless.  Not just stocks and bonds along with real estate whether commercial or residential is in bubble land as well.  All of the Fed’s shenanigans and manipulative devices will work until they don’t!

Right now the U.S. is staring into the eyes of an upcoming recession with a soft landing in my opinion is clearly out of the realm of possibility.  In my way of thinking the best we can hope for is another replay of the Great Recession and worst a remake of the Great Depression.  Either way we are in for ruff times in the future with investors needing to concentrate far more heavily on preservation of wealth.         

 COVID

War Continues!

Covid is a criminal conspiracy. Anyone who portrays it as a medical emergency is misleading people.

Wittingly or not is irrelevant.

It’s imperative that everyone stop ceding ground to these fascists by reifying the Big Lie that "Covid" is a unique disease and that it is responsible for a global pandemic.

"Covid" the disease is pure fiction.

All the rest of it (biolabs / batsoup / bioweapons / lableaks) is political bread and circuses theatrics.

Covid is a global conspiracy by the Worlds transnational ruling class which was planned out and war-gamed at the WEF, the central bankers summit in Jackson Hole, and at Event 201.

99% of people falsely certified as having ‘died from covid’ actually died from their preexisting conditions being exacerbated by mass medical malpractice and ‘public health’ despotism, the other 1% simply died of old age.

From the CDC itself 7/16/21: “Of the 540,667 hospitalized coronavirus patients included in the study, 80,174 died during the observation period (March 2020 to March 2021). A whopping 99.1% of the patients who died had at least one pre-existing condition, with just 740 having no prior condition on record.

Remember your own government just bilked trillions from you while murdering your family members with an illegal drug marketed illegally, and forced down your throat by a captured Congress and media. 

They want to move you by bombarding with endless staged, faked propaganda events** away from the biggest theft and mass murder in the history of the world, a murder in which large parts of the country were complicit, including your doctor, your pharmacist, your governor, your mayor, your health department, your insurance company, your President, your Supreme Court, all your TV channels, your congresses, your favorite movie stars, your favorite sports stars, and many of your neighbors and friends/acquaintances.

**The number one faked events is mass shootings especially at schools.  These are only FEMA drills then published by the main stream press as real.  Then sprinkled with Chinese spy balloon(it was ours), CGI car crash at the Canadian border etc. 

 Just in Case

Big Pharma Attempts

Another Fake Virus

JON RAPPOPORT

NOV 24, 2023

China’s…new mystery outbreak…

Gateway Pundit:

An unexplained pneumonia-like sickness is reportedly swiftly spreading through schools in China, leading to a surge of hospitalizations of children.

Over the past few weeks, numerous schools in China, predominantly in Beijing and Liaoning province, have reported a rapid increase in children presenting with severe symptoms. These symptoms, including high fever and lung inflammation, are eerily similar to those of pneumonia, Daily Mail reported.

However, what sets this illness apart is the lack of common respiratory symptoms like coughing. This unique symptom profile has led health professionals to label this as an “undiagnosed pneumonia.”

Note that this peculiar symptomatology has reportedly baffled health professionals, who are struggling to categorize and understand this new illness.

Mystery? Baffling? Eerie?

I don’t think so. They always give you: “This has no explanation”—just before they magically announce they’ve found a new virus.

Of course, they never actually isolate that new virus. They never discover it. They just invent a fairy tale.

As far as “mysterious” is concerned in China right now, here is a definitive statement from the American Thoracic Society: “It is possible to have pneumonia without a cough or fever.”

For years, doctors have been diagnosing patients with pneumonia when there is no cough present. It’s not baffling. It’s not ultra-strange. So forget about that.

Which leaves the question: what IS making all these children in China sick? Hmm. Let’s see. Could it be changes in the moon’s orbit? Sun spots? Lasers fired from UFOs? Infected bats imported from Mars?

No?

Well, how about THIS?

US Embassy in China, October 30, 2023:

EVENT: This is a notification that the Beijing City Government has issued an ‘orange’ alert for air pollution effective from 12:00 Monday, October 30 until 24:00 Thursday, November 2. An ‘orange’ alert means that official forecasts indicate Beijing’s Air Quality Index (AQI) will exceed 200 for two consecutive days or 150 for three consecutive days. The alert may be extended if air pollution levels persist.

During an “orange” alert, some businesses may reduce operations.

ACTIONS TO TAKE: The U.S. EPA recommends people with heart or lung disease, older adults, children, and teenagers limit or avoid outdoor physical activity when the AQI level exceeds 200. It recommends everyone avoid outdoor exertion if the AQI level exceeds 300.

Reuters, October 31, 2023:

Authorities issued their highest warnings for fog and haze on Tuesday as smog enveloped major cities in northern China, warning the public that visibility could drop to less than 50 meters (164 feet).

Northern Province of Hebei launched an anti-pollution emergency response, listing traffic safety controls for when necessary including suspending flight takeoffs and landings, temporarily closing highways and suspending ferries, China's meteorological bureau said in a notice.

As air pollution levels in the wider Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area and northern part of Henan province reached moderate to severe, pollution control experts said increased industrial activities, heavy trucking and crop fires had contributed to the haze, state media CCTV reported.

Crisis 24, a “global security platform,” reports that heavy pollution is occurring in Northern China provinces, including Beijing and Liaoning, the two areas reporting the “mystery illness” in children.

I see.

Pollution causing lung problems.

Wow. I just fell off my chair. What a revelation. Who ever heard of that?

Yeah. I went through all this—reported on all this—in 2020—with “COVID.” That was a mysterious pneumonia, too. Except for the heavy air pollution. Every year in China, about 300,000 people die from pneumonia (lung problems). That means there are millions of cases.

No matter how much we wish - the COVID vaccine continues it harms and deaths!

 This 

Speaks for Itself!

Maybe Raymond Smith will do an "Anal bleeding" song next?

My ass was bleeding all night long

The doctors are baffled as I sing this song

My time is up I wont last long

Pfizer said they did nothing wrong

My lawyer says there's nothing I can do

Pfizer is immune and I can not sue

I took two jabs and all I got

Is coming out of my ass a huge blood clot

I just did what they told me to

I listened to the news and the WHO

Nothing can save me no last resort

I'm going to end up on The Kurgan Report

 Worldwide Multi-Trillion Dollar

Business of Medicine

The Over diagnosis Industry: 

Consumers Should Just Say "No!"
Pamela A. Popper, President
Wellness Forum Health

One of the most common questions I’m asked by people is "I’m seeing my doctor for a checkup this week – what tests should I ask him/her to perform?"

My answer: Maybe you should rethink the annual checkup. Almost all studies have shown it to be useless.[1] [2] But if you must see a doctor to have prescriptions filled, first look into whether or not your prescriptions are necessary, and also the potential to reverse the conditions for which they are prescribed.

But the direct answer to the question about which tests to ask for: as few as possible, potentially none. And, according to a recent article in Fortune Magazine called "The Growing Case for Doing Less: How harmless cancers are being overdiagnosed in America,"[3] you should be particularly wary of cancer screening tests.

I used to be considered an outlier in this area, and every time I discussed this topic, I could expect a lot of hate mail from people who truly believed that more medical attention leads to better outcomes, and that "early detection saves lives." This has never been true, and more and more health professionals are realizing it and agreeing with me.

One of the first mainstream doctors to speak out – in 2009 – was Laura Esserman, a breast cancer surgeon and oncology specialist in San Francisco. She co-authored an article, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association,[4] which stated that routine screening for breast and prostate cancer was not reducing the incidence of aggressive and late-stage cancers, which was supposed to be the goal of screening tests. She also was the subject of hate mail, but now reports that things have changed. Women from all over the world are consulting with her because she often advises doing nothing in response to a diagnosis of DCIS, or ductal carcinoma in situ.

DCIS is often referred to as zero stage cancer, but diagnosis has typically been followed by aggressive treatment that can include mastectomy, lumpectomy, radiation and often a 5-year course of hormone blockade drugs. This is a lot of treatment, particularly considering that a study of 100,000 women followed for two decades showed that women who were diagnosed and treated for DCIS had about the same risk of dying of breast cancer as women in the general population.[5] This essentially means that for most women, the risks associated with screening and treatment for early or non-existent cancer far outweigh benefits – in fact there aren’t any benefits. Dr. Esserman says, "Getting a biopsy is not pleasant, and 75% of all the biopsies we do turn out to be nothing. You stick a needle in the breast and sometimes you’ll see these little calcifications that are benign–but incidentally, there’s focus on DCIS, and the next thing someone’s getting a bilateral mastectomy. You think those things don’t happen. They happen all the time."[6]

Overdiagnosis is not limited to breast cancer – the same is true for prostate, melanoma, and thyroid cancer. The reason is "improved" technology, which now detects cancers at earlier stages, including stages at which the cancer poses little to no threat to the patient. A recent meta-analysis of 18 randomized clinical trials including over two million people concluded that "current evidence does not substantiate the claim" that screening tests like mammography, colonoscopy, and PSA testing save lives.[7]

The same is true of skin cancer screening. The incidence of melanoma is now 6 times higher than it was 40 years ago, mainly because more doctors are looking for it. But the death rate remains the same. There are no randomized controlled trials showing that melanoma screening reduces the risk of dying from melanoma.[8]

Cancer screening expert Ade Anderson at Dell Medical School urges caution with screening tests, stating that "In our exuberance to find these cancers, we have basically turned a lot of healthy people who are not destined to die from the cancers into patients." He adds that screening 1000 women for breast cancer results in saving one woman from early death, but many of the other 999 will endure false positives, painful biopsies, anxiety, and possibly surgery and overtreatment – all of which can result in harm. In other words, the incessant screenings are finding disease that we may all be better off not knowing about.[9]

The main reason that cancer screening remains a booming business is not because it "saves lives," but rather due to economics. It is estimated that the screening business generates $80 billion dollars in sales annually in the U.S,[10] and screening is the best way to recruit patients for the cancer treatment industry which generates hundreds of billions of dollars for medical centers annually.

A credible voice of reason is Rita Redberg, former editor of the Journal of the American Medical Association: "I don’t think people feel better from all these screening tests we do, and they lead to a lot of complications. I think we would make a lot more impact if we worked on public health campaigns to stop smoking, stop vaping, increase physical activity, and improve our diets. That would really reduce cancer–and people would feel better."[11]

Amen to that!

 

---

[1] Bloomfield HE, Wilt TJ. "Evidence Brief: Role of the Annual comprehensive Physical Examination in the Asymptomatic Adult."

VA Evidence-based Synthesis Program Evidence Briefs.
[2] Krogsboll L, Jorgensen K, Larsen C, Gotzsche P. "General health checks in adults for reducing morbidity and mortality from disease:
Cochrane systematic review and meta-analysis." BMJ 2012;345: e7191

[3] Carolyn Barber. The growing case for doing less: How harmless cancers are being overdiagnosed in America. Fortune Magazine Oct 2 2023

[4] Esserman L, Shieh Y, Thompson I. "Rethinking Screening for Breast Cancer." JAMA 2009;302(15):1685-1692

[5] Narod SA, Iqbal J, Giannakeas V et al. "Breast Cancer Mortality After a Diagnosis of Ductal Carcinoma In Situ." JAMA Oncol 2015 Oct:1(7):888-896

[6] Carolyn Barber. The growing case for doing less: How harmless cancers are being overdiagnosed in America. Fortune Magazine Oct 2 2023

[7] Bretthauer M, Wieszczt P, Loberg M et al. "Estimated Lifetime Gained With Cancer Screening." JAMA Intern Med 2023 Aug;183(11):1196-1203

[8] Welch HG, Mazer BL, Adamson AS. "The Rapid Rise in Cutaneous Melanoma Diagnoses." NEJM 2021 Jan;384(1):72-79

[9] Carolyn Barber. The growing case for doing less: How harmless cancers are being overdiagnosed in America. Fortune Magazine Oct 2 2023

[10] https://csph.brighamandwomens.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Estimating-Annual-Expenditures-for-Cancer-Screening-in-the-United-States.pdf

[11] Carolyn Barber. The growing case for doing less: How harmless cancers are being overdiagnosed in America. Fortune Magazine Oct 2 2023

In my opinion the CDC is incapable of being reformed it need to be closed as of yesterday!

CDC can't find any studies demonstrating contagion of colds/flu/fake-covid... maybe because they don't exist

Latest in long string of CDC "germ" FOI failures

CHRISTINE MASSEY FOIS NOV 26 April 10, 2023: A FOIA request was sent to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry for all studies/reports scientifically demonstrating contagion of any respiratory disease. April 13, 2023: CDC acknowledged the request and placed it in their “complex processing queue” April 18, 2023: CDC put the request on hold pending my provision of further details; details were affirmed that same day. April 20, 2023: CDC asked for the search to be narrowed; the search was narrowed to respiratory illnesses said to be caused by “coronaviruses” or “influenza viruses” with the timeframe beginning in 1900 July 14, 2023: Follow up to CDC asking how the search is going; no response July 19, 2023: Follow up to CDC asking how the search is going; no response July 27, 2023: Follow up to CDC asking how the search is going; no response August 15, 2023: Follow up to CDC asking how the search is going August 16, 2023: CDC’s “Government Information Specialist” says “we’re working on it” (paraphrased) October 14, 2023 (6 months after filing the request): Follow up to CDC asking them to send whatever has been located thus far; I told them that if I don't receive records by 5pm, Oct. 17, I'll be publishing an article about their delayed response November 25, 2023: 7.5 months since the request was filed. Crickets. No update, no records, no evidence of contagion.