The 

Federal Reserve has so completely normalized speculative excess  

They are no longer even recognized as extremes. 

The Fed's Empire of Speculation and the Echoes of 1929

Speculation has its own expiration dynamics, and they don't depend on us recognizing speculative excess for what it is.

CHARLES HUGH SMITH

DEC 19, 2023

The primary mechanism is obvious to all: whenever the equity market falters, the Fed unleashes a flood tide of liquidity, i.e. fresh currency, that rushes into the market at the top--corporations, banks and financiers--because the Fed distributes the fresh liquidity solely into the top tier of market players.

The Fed's ability to conjure up liquidity in a variety of ways appears limitless: expand its balance sheet (QE), use the reverse repo market and bank reserves, launch new lending mechanisms, and so on.

The Fed has long relied on useful fictions to mask its agenda. One useful fiction is that the Fed is independent and apolitical. Despite being risibly shopworn, this mirth-inducing fiction is still dutifully trotted out by every Fed chairperson.

Another useful fiction is that the Fed's mandate focuses on promoting stable expansion of the economy, not the equity market. This masks the reality everyone knows and acts on, which is the market isn't a reflection of the economy, it is the economy.

DYI:  When this speculative party ends is anyone guess; but when it does pop the multi-year grind down will be brutal and most importantly relentless.  Not just stocks and bonds along with real estate whether commercial or residential is in bubble land as well.  All of the Fed’s shenanigans and manipulative devices will work until they don’t!

Right now the U.S. is staring into the eyes of an upcoming recession with a soft landing in my opinion is clearly out of the realm of possibility.  In my way of thinking the best we can hope for is another replay of the Great Recession and worst a remake of the Great Depression.  Either way we are in for ruff times in the future with investors needing to concentrate far more heavily on preservation of wealth.