Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Whether or not rates are cut in July of 2024 the economy has been declining at an increased pace!

 


10 Reasons Why a Rate Cut in July

From Mish Talk’s Mish Talk’s Website

1. In general, data is weakening across the board. Real disposable income has been negative in two of the last there months.

2.  The BEA made a large negative revision to GDP and GDI.

3.  Consumer spending took a dive in April and I expect it will stick this time.

4. Terrible reports from Target and Walmart on discretionary consumer spending.

5.  There have been numerous negative revisions in most of the recent hard data.

6.  Job openings are plunging.

7.  The GDP Now forecast is plunging fast.

8.  I finally expect rent to break the string of 32 consecutive months of rising at least 0.4 percent.

9.  The July meeting is nearly two months away, on July 31. There is plenty of time for further economic weakening and that is what I expect.

10.  There is no meeting in August. If the Fed is at all concerned about slowing, but not wanting to risk being too late (not that it will matter, but that is how the Fed thinks), the Fed will find a reason for a July cut.   


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