10 Reasons Why a Rate
Cut in July
From Mish Talk’s
Mish Talk’s Website
1. In general, data is
weakening across the board. Real disposable income has been negative in two of
the last there months.
2. The BEA made a large negative revision to GDP
and GDI.
3. Consumer spending took a dive in April and I
expect it will stick this time.
4. Terrible reports
from Target and Walmart on discretionary consumer spending.
5. There have been numerous negative revisions
in most of the recent hard data.
6. Job openings are plunging.
7. The GDP Now forecast is plunging fast.
8. I finally expect rent to break the string of
32 consecutive months of rising at least 0.4 percent.
9. The July meeting is nearly two months away,
on July 31. There is plenty of time for further economic weakening and that is
what I expect.
10. There is no meeting in August. If the Fed is
at all concerned about slowing, but not wanting to risk being too late (not
that it will matter, but that is how the Fed thinks), the Fed will find a
reason for a July cut.
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