Thursday, December 5, 2024


Stocks

Overvalued?

Warren Buffett Agrees!

Buffett T-bills & Chills: Piled up T-bills, Ditched Stocks, Bonds, and Share Buybacks in Q3

Cash is king for Warren Buffett. His investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway, continued to dump its two biggest stock holdings in Q3, Apple and Bank of America. It was a net-seller of stocks for the eighth quarter in a row, selling $36.1 billion of stocks, and buying only $1.5 billion, for net sales of $34.5 billion. It didn’t buy back any of its own shares. And it further increased its already huge pile of cash, particularly its Treasury bills, according to Berkshire’s Q3 earnings report released on Saturday.

In the quarter through September 30, Berkshire Hathaway piled on an additional $48 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and Treasury bills, bringing the total cash pile to $325 billion, nearly double where it had been a year ago.

DYI:  Warren Buffett is simply responding to the massive historical overvaluation of the stock market in general and reducing significantly his exposure to any of the high flying technology companies. 

DYI is an offshoot to Harry Browne’s permanent portfolio that maintains 25% at all time in Stocks, Lt. Bonds, Gold, and Cash equivalents.  I adjust the exposure based on how far above or below the mean valuation for Stocks, Lt. Bonds, and Gold anywhere from 0% to 50%.  Cash equivalents are my default position ranging from 0% to 100%.  My adjustment is based simply using a formula that increases or decreases the percentage held depending on how deep or steep those three assets are away from their mean.  Today and for a very long time stocks are outrageously overvalued!      

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 12/1/24

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
29% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
49% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **
 22% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]
** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

  Smart Money - Buys Aggressively!
Capitulation
Despondency
Max-Pessimism 
Depression 
Hope - Silver F
Relief *Market returns to Mean  - Short Term Notes & Bills or MMF

Smart Money - Buys the Dips!
Optimism - Gold
Media Attention
Enthusiasm

Smart Money - Sells the Rallies!
Thrill
Greed
Delusional
Max-Optimism  Residential Real Estate   - Stocks 
Denial of Problem 
Anxiety 
Fear
Desperation - Long Term Bonds

Current Economic Conditions

Prosperity - Moderate
Recession - Shallow
Deflation - None
Inflation - Moderate

Economic Choices
None
Shallow
Moderate
Prominent
Extreme 

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Use this site at your own risk.

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