Feeling

Invincible?

S&P 500 Shiller PE at 38.62

Along with a tiny 1.20% dividend yield! 

The total return of the S&P 500 lagged Treasury bonds from 1929-1950, 1968-1987, and the 22-year stretch from 1998 to 2020 (3/23/98-3/23/20 -5.27% vs 5.32% annually). That’s 62 years of the 96-year period since 1929 – nearly two-thirds of market history!

Bear markets of significant declines start with high valuations, intense speculation, fear of missing out (FOMO), and a feeling of invincibility.  All those warning signs are very apparent right now…. Caveat emptor!