This Time is Different?

NOT A COLD DAYS CHANCE IN HELL!

The speculative imagination

As I’ve noted before, investors rediscover the idea of a ‘new era’ at every speculative peak. But the reality is that economic growth is nothing but the constant introduction of new eras. The danger occurs when the new era is so satisfying to the imagination that investors abandon any concern about valuation.

Even when an industry is eventually successful, early speculation can have devastating consequences in the interim. Several large technology companies from the tech bubble have gone on to prosper, but not without the Nasdaq 100 losing 83% between March 2000 and October 2002, with these same companies participating in the collapse. The S&P 500 itself lost half its value during that period, from a lower level of valuation than we observe at present.

Similarly, computer companies became a speculative theme in the late-1960’s, as investors abandoned any concern about valuations. Then that “Go-Go” bubble collapsed, resulting in profound losses even before the 1973-74 collapse took the overall S&P 500 down by 50%, from a lower level of valuation than we observe at present. As Benjamin Graham wrote at the time:

Many – if not most – investments in computer-industry companies other than IBM appear to have been unprofitable. Obvious prospects for physical growth in a business do not translate into obvious profits for investors. 

The habit of relating what is paid to what is being offered is an invaluable trait in investment. The really dreadful losses in the past few years (and on many similar occasions before) were realized in those common-stock issues where the buyer forgot to ask ‘How much?’

– Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor, 1973