Is the U.S. Stock Market

Overvalued?

Yes; Significantly!

To Arrive at the Mean

Stocks need to Decline

60%!

When will the the bear show it self??  

I don't know?  

When the bear does show it self IMO we'll be in a multi-cycle bear market simliar to the 1970's with nominal declines and rebounds as the purchasing power is ravaged by non stop inflation.  So don't go losing your head when everyone else is losing theirs!

 Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 1/1/26

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

49% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

29% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **

 22% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

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