The Question is…Is it Time in the Market or is it Timing the Market?

 

196%

Above Trend Line!

DYI:  No matter how stock market participants slice or dice valuation metrics the U.S. market is massively overvalued!  One third of market returns comes from compounding of dividends and the remaining two thirds is from changes in the price to earnings multiple.

The Question is…Is it Time in the Market or is it Timing the Market?  If you’re a college endowment such as Harvard or Yale whose time horizon is forever, then time in the market is far more important than timing the market. 

However, for us mere mortals with only a few decades “To put it all together” then timing or to be more accurate pricing (valuations) possible future returns becomes not just important but absolutely paramount.

Dollars invested today and over the past few years will experience sub par returns or even possible losses over their respective 10 year holding time horizons.  Simply put as PE ratios regress back to the mean and very possibly go below that two thirds portion will drag down returns since the dividend yield beginnings were so low (1%).

DYI’s model portfolio has been out of U.S. stocks for many years however Vanguard’s Global Capital Cycles Fund – VGPMX (holds 25% in precious metals mining companies) over the past 5 years return has been 22.24%!  My model portfolio designed to out perform Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio is doing just fine despite holding a large short term bond position.

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 3/1/26

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%

57% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

22% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **

 21% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

Is DYI’s model portfolio designed to out perform the S&P 500?  In one word: NO!  It is designed to capture ¾’s of its return with ½ to ¾ less downside thus able ling us mere mortals with that limited time horizon “To put it all together”  without experiencing any massive bear markets!

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