Interest Rate

Secular Movement

Next 10 to 20 Years is for Higher Rates!

DYI:  Interest rates over the next one to even possibly two decades will be on balance ever increasing.  The movement with increasing highs and most importantly during recessions ever higher lows.  This is caused by our well know extreme Debt to GDP ratio with neither political party willing to address their massive spending (Forcing the Federal Reserve to monetize the debt causing inflation). 

With an impending possible recession on the horizon interest rates could possibly fall.  However I would find it very doubtful – using the 10 year Treasury bond as bell weather – to break below its 0.52% yield set in August 4, 2020.  Breaking below 2% would require massive money printing by the Federal Reserve setting off inflation well into the teens (possibly higher). 

The Feds are trapped they will do money printing during the next recession but will not go to bazooka size.  They will have to let the stock market fall to the shock of the top 30% (and especially the top 10%).