Symptoms of Bull Market Top

Current Conditions:

Small check:  ✔ insignificant

Large check:  ✔ Predominant

Double check ✔✔ Significant

Double & Plus ✔✔ +  Mania

Financial indicators:

1.)  High trading volume – panic buying. ✔✔+

2.)  Substantial buying 

of equity mutual funds by the public. ✔✔+

3.)  Shiller PE¹⁰ at historical highs; 

low market dividend yield. ✔✔+

4.)  Mergers & Acquisitions and IPO’s calendar very robust. ✔ 

5.)  Widening credit spreads. ✔

6.)  Numbers of stocks making new highs are in decline. ✔

Mass Psychology:

1.)  Investors use any reason to buy. ✔✔+

2.)  Making money in the markets appears to be easy. ✔✔+

3.)  Investors can’t wait 

to read their portfolio statements. ✔✔+

4.)  Public infatuation with highly leveraged speculations. ✔

5.)  The media describes the economy and markets as goldilocks (or any other word describing perfection). ✔

6.)  Known contrarian investors are bearish – are seen as out of step with the new realities – or simply appear to be stupid or crazy. ✔✔+

7.)  Annuities and savings accounts are seen as dead investments. ✔✔+