Wednesday, September 9, 2026

 Bubble

Protection!

The U.S. stock market has been in a bubble for years; however investors who understand valuations and studied past bubbles know that this party will end.  And end it will with stocks regressing back to their mean and typically overshooting below.  Stocks: measured by the S&P 500 Shiller PE is 136% above its average a mockery of anything resembling investing!

Permanent Portfolio's Worst Decline...

During the 2008 financial crisis, the Permanent Portfolio Class I shares (PRPFX) experienced a maximum peak-to-trough drawdown of 27.16%. This drop started from a peak on May 20, 2008, and reached its trough on November 20, 2008, recovering relatively quickly compared to pure equity benchmarks. Price recovery took 221 trading sessions (roughly 11 months).

S&P 500 Index: Plunged -57% from its pre-crisis peak to its early 2009 trough, taking over four years to fully recover.

As long as U.S. stocks remain at nose bleed levels I’ll have an anti-thesis towards equities; the upside is now significantly less than the downside.  Its time for protection!  Gleaned from my model portfolio and/or PRPFX.

 Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 9/1/26

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
44% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
32% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **
 24% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLAX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]

** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines.  

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