Monday, August 3, 2026

 




Smart Money - Buys Aggressively!
Capitulation
Despondency

Max-Pessimism 
Depression 
Hope -  F
Relief *Market returns to Mean  - Short Term Notes & Bills or MMF

Smart Money - Buys the Dips!
Optimism - Swiss Treasury Securities and Silver  - Gold
Media Attention 
Enthusiasm 

Smart Money - Sells the Rallies!
Thrill
Greed Crude Oil
Delusional
Max-Optimism  Residential Real Estate   - Stocks 
Denial of Problem   -BitCoin 
Anxiety 
Fear
Desperation - Long Term Bonds

Current Economic Conditions

Prosperity - Moderate
Recession - Shallow
Deflation - None
Inflation - Moderate

Economic Choices
None
Shallow
Moderate
Prominent
Extreme 

August 1, 2026 Moved Gold from Enthusiasm back down to Optimism  
August 1, 2026 Now following crude oil prices

January 20, 2026 Gold from Media Attention to Enthusiasm 
January 20, 2026  Silver from Hope to Optimism

December 22, 2025...Stated Long Term Investment Grade Corporate bonds will outperform stocks (Total Market Index) over the next ten years.  Vanguard ETF symbol VCLT (bonds) at 5.68% and Vanguard VTI (Total Market) dividend yield at 1.09%.  Interest is 421% greater than dividend yield.

December 29, 2025 Changed Bit Coin from Max-Optimism to Denial of Problem 
July 10, 2025 Added Swiss Treasury Securities 

May 24. 2025 Gold from Optimism to Media Attention
May 12, 2025 Added BitCoin at Max Optimism

November 4, 2024  Stocks from Denial of Problem to Max Optimism 
July 9, 2024 Added New Oil Indicator 

June 29, 2024  Dropped Oil Indicator
May 27, 2024  Added Current Economic Conditions 

January 20, 2024  Added residential real estate 
September 21, 2023  Long Term Bonds from Fear to Desperation 

October 27, 2022  Long Term Bonds from Anxiety to Fear
October 27, 2022  Short Term Bonds & MMF from Hope to Relief

October 1, 2022 Short Term Bonds & MMF from Depression to Hope

October 1, 2022 Bonds from Denial of Problem to Anxiety
October 1, 2022 Stocks from Max-Optimism to Denial of Problem

September 2, 2022  Lt. Bonds from Max-Optimism to Denial of Problem
March 15, 2021 Stocks from Denial of Problem to Max-Optimism

August 3, 2020 Gold from Mean to Optimism
August 3, 2020 Split Silver to Hope to accurately display Gold/Silver Ratio

March 3, 2020 Money Market funds from Depression to Max-Pessimism
March 3, 2020 Gold from Hope to Relief

March 3, 2020 Lt. Bonds from Denial of Problem to Max-Optimism
March 3, 2020 Stocks from Max-Optimism to Denial of Problem

March 28, 2017 Lt. Bonds From Max-Optimism to Denial of Problem
March 28, 2017 Gold From Relief to Hope

March 12, 2017  U.S. Stocks From Denial of Problem to Max-Optimism
July 5, 2015 - Lt. Term Bonds - From Delusional to Max-Optimism

July 5, 2015 - St. Term Bonds - From Despondency to Max-Pessimism
July 5, 2015 - MMF - From Max-Pessimism to Depression

April 8, 2015 - Gold - From Optimism to Relief
Nov. 4, 2014 - Gold - From Media Attention to Optimism

Sept. 10, 2012 - Stocks - From Anxiety to Denial of Problem
June 4, 2012 - Long Bonds - From Thrill to Delusional

May 18, 2012 - REIT's - From Delusional to Max-Optimism (no longer followed; sorry)
May 9, 2012 - Long Bonds - From Thrill to Greed

March 7, 2012 - Cash [MMF] - Despondency to Max-Pessimism
March 7, 2012 - Short Bonds - Capitulation to Despondency
.....

Saturday, August 1, 2026

Despite all of the financial tantrums and fireworks...ZERO change from last month!


Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 8/1/26

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 50%
41% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX
35% -Gold- Global Capital Cycles Fund - VGPMX **
 24% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX
 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX
[See Disclaimer]
** Vanguard's Global Capital Cycles Fund maintains 25%+ in precious metal equities the remainder are domestic or international companies they believe will perform well during times of world wide stress or economic declines. 


 
Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.
"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:
Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]
Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........40.91
Bond Rate....5.73%

EYC Ratio = 1/PE10 x 100 x 1.1 / Bond Rate

2.00+ Stocks on the give-away-table!

1.75+ Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30+ Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - Purchase Bonds

0.50 or less:  Stock Market Crash Alert!  
Purchase 30 year Treasury Bonds! 

Current EYC Ratio: 0.47(rounded)
As of  8-1-2026
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com
DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.
Lump Sum is any dollar amount greater than one year salary.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss...If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham


%
Stocks & Bonds
Allocation Formula

8-1-2026
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 4)  ÷  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]
Formula's answer determines bond allocation.


Core Bond Allocation:  140% 

% Stock Allocation      0% (rounded)
% Bond Allocation  100% (rounded)

Current Asset: Vanguard Short-Term

Investment Grade Bond Fund   

Logic behind this approach:
--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 
--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the mean, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note:  I changed the formula when the Shiller PE10 is trading at it's mean - stocks and bonds will be at 50% - 50% representing Ben Graham's Defensive investor starting point; only deviating from that norm as valuations rise or fall.

Current Allocation:

Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund


Possible Allocations to Bonds vs Stocks:

Bonds %
100%+  Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade Bond Fund 

99% to 65% Wellesley Income Fund

64% to 35% 1/2 Wellesley Income Fund - 1/2 Wellington Fund

34% to 20%  Equity Income Fund

19% to 0%  Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund
  
DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.
This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!
The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.
The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.
Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

Thursday, July 30, 2026

The Only Way to Reform the CDC is by Closing!


The

CDC

Follies

CDC

The Center for

Waste, FRAUD, and Old Fashion Abuse! 

CDC FOIA confession: we have no scientific evidence of any Poxviridae virus... including variola, cowpox, monkeypox, vaccinia, camelpox and orf virus

And no scientific evidence for contagion and no record of even a "viral genome" being found in anyone. We were faking it all along.

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

 

Korean KOSPI

Crashes 10.8%

 Drops 34% in 25 Days

Is this the Canary in the Coal Mine?



Most likely the dip buyers will come in and push this index back up in price, however if this is the beginning of a major bear market, then only 1/2 or so of the decline will recover before the bear reinserts once again.

Till Next Time!

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

 

Our

Fight for Freedom

NEVER ENDS!


Technocracy’s Digital ID Is Being Smuggled In On The Backs Of Children

Posted By: Patrick Wood

I have spent more than fifteen years analyzing technocracy as a system of rule by engineered administration, where the credential replaces the citizen, and the dashboard replaces the vote. Technocrats have their requirements, and they keep hammering on them until they get their way.

In all those years, how many times have we seen digital ID come up? Just about every year!

The fact is, Technocrats need digital identity to work. Without it, Technocracy is dead. You cannot administer what you cannot enumerate. You cannot meter, permission, or exclude a population that you cannot individually identify. Programmable money, social scoring, algorithmic governance, all of it waits on a unique, verified, machine-readable identity for every human being.

That is why the past twelve months deserve your full attention. The hinge pin for digital ID is being fitted right now, on both sides of the Atlantic, and the hand doing the fitting is wearing a child-safety armband. The Technocrat’s feigned concern for children is so patently hollow that it borders on child abuse.

First, The Age Check For Minors, Then ID For Everybody

Britain ran the experiment first, so watch this pattern.

In July 2025, the age-verification rules of the Online Safety Act took effect. To protect children, adults were suddenly required to upload government IDs or submit to face scans to reach lawful content on Reddit, X, and Discord. The public understood immediately what an “age check” really is. It is an identity check with a bedtime story attached.

The response was remarkable. VPN signups surged by more than a thousand percent within hours of enforcement. One provider compared the numbers to what it sees during civil unrest. Millions of ordinary Britons, no manifesto required, simply refused to show papers at the door of the internet. These weren’t extremists as the government maintained, but ordinary, run-of-the-mill citizens.

Two months later the government showed its hand. The Prime Minister announced a national digital ID, mandatory for the right to work. The pretext shifted from children to migrants, but the architecture was the same. No credential, no participation. That Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, happens to be a member of the elitist Trilateral Commission.

Then the public won the first round. Nearly three million people signed a petition against the scheme, one of the largest in parliamentary history. Opposition came from every direction at once, left and right, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and by January 2026, the government retreated to a “voluntary” ID. Read the fine print, though. Digital right-to-work checks are still on track to become effectively unavoidable. The ID is optional, just as cash is optional once every register goes card-only.

Now watch American Technocrats run the same play. In June 2026, the House passed the KIDS Act, a package that consolidated 14 separate child-safety bills into a single vote. Its defenders point to language disclaiming any age-verification mandate, and that language is real. But the liability standard does the work instead. Platforms face consequences if they “should have known” a user was a minor. No general counsel on earth reads that phrase and concludes the company should collect less identity data.

The Senate side is more revealing, even if there are doubts about passing. A package is being negotiated that would trade children’s online safety legislation for federal preemption of state AI laws. Sit with that switch-a-roo for a moment. The most powerful industry in history is offering to accept identity-adjacent rules for the public in exchange for removing safety rules for itself. The children are the currency, not the beneficiary.

Always Call Them Out By Name

Skeptics like Jeremy Boreing tell me Technocracy has no unified plans, names, or even an address. Here are three names (there are many more), and I invent nothing about any of them. The public record says it all.

Start with Sam Altman, because he skipped the pretexts and built His company, Tools for Humanity, that manufactures the Orb, a biometric device that scans human irises and issues a “proof of personhood.” The project’s founding white paper described the goal as “a globally-inclusive identity and financial network, owned by the majority of humanity.” Every human. That is the stated scope.

So far, the project has scanned millions of people across roughly 160 countries. It rolled thousands of Orbs into American cities in 2025. By this spring, it had struck verification partnerships with Tinder, Zoom, and DocuSign. Dating, work, and contracts: that is the connective tissue of ordinary life, and it is being wired to an eyeball scan.

Governments elsewhere saw the danger in the Orb. Brazil banned the project outright. Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand halted it, citing consent violations and the recruitment of poor communities paid for their eyeballs. It expands anyway. And savor the business model. The man whose AI floods the internet with convincing bots now sells the only antidote, proof that you are not a bot. He built the disease, he owns the cure, and the cure is a global biometric registry.

Marc Andreessen shows you the financing. His firm, Andreessen Horowitz, was an early and repeated backer of Altman’s identity project, participating in the funding rounds that built the Orb network. At the same time, Andreessen and his partners helped bankroll Leading the Future, one of the largest super PACs in the history of technology politics. Its purpose is to elect politicians who will preempt and dismantle state-level AI regulation, the very preemption now being traded for kids’ safety bills in the Senate.

Follow both hands at once. One hand funds the infrastructure that credentials every human. The other funds the campaign to strip oversight from the machines. Deregulate the algorithms, register the people. You do not need to infer this from whispers. It is written in funding announcements and FEC filings.

Peter Thiel supplies the government side of the pincer. The company he co-founded, Palantir, saw its federal contracts nearly double to roughly a billion dollars in 2025, spanning ICE, the IRS, and the Pentagon. A March 2025 executive order instructed agencies to eliminate “information silos,” which is bureaucratese for merging the data files. Reporting throughout 2025 and 2026 placed Palantir at the center of efforts to link tax records, Social Security data, health claims, and immigration status across agencies.

Even a Republican congressman, Warren Davidson, said the quiet part aloud. Combining those data points, he warned, “essentially creates a digital ID.” Notice the form it takes. No card in your wallet, no enrollment ceremony. A dossier assembled on the server side, which is the one kind of digital identity nobody ever asks you to consent to. Britain knows the pattern too. Palantir won the contract to consolidate NHS patient data, nearly half a billion pounds, over loud objections from privacy campaigners.

Three men, three vectors, and this is the tip of the iceberg. Altman builds the credential. Andreessen finances it while defunding oversight. Thiel fuses the state’s records behind it. Do they meet in a smoke-filled room? They do not need to. Interests that align coordinate themselves, and that self-coordination is exactly what makes technocracy durable. It requires no conspiracy, only convergence.

It’s Always The Children

Notice what none of these projects leads with. Control never introduces itself as control. Digital ID never arrives as a demand. It arrives as a favor. Protect the children. Stop the bots. Catch the fraudsters. Secure the border.

Each rationale is genuinely sympathetic, which is exactly why each is selected. The children are the most effective of all, because no politician survives a vote against “child safety.” So the age check becomes the wedge, the wedge becomes the norm, and the norm carries the full system in behind it.”

Britain presented a timetable of 14 months from age checks to a national ID proposal.

The Pushback Is Working, So Get Busy While Time Remains

Here is the part the doom alarmists leave out, and it matters. The public keeps winning.

Britain repealed Blair’s ID cards in 2011. The mandatory BritCard was gutted in four months by petition signatures and cross-party revolt, Farage and Corbyn objecting in the same season. Brazil threw the Orb out of the country and fined it for coming back. Even in Washington, the bill that actually passed the House had its most speech-restrictive provision stripped out first, and nearly a hundred advocacy groups fought it from one side while civil liberties groups fought it from the other.

Every one of those victories came from ordinary people making noise: signing, calling, refusing, switching on a VPN as an act of quiet defiance. The architects of these systems are patient, but they are not invincible, and they retreat every single time the public notices before the concrete sets.

If Britain’s voluntary ID stays genuinely voluntary through 2029, if American age checks stay confined to explicit-content sites, if World ID never becomes a de facto requirement for work or platforms, then the hinge-pin reading loses force, and I will be happy to say so in print.

But watch the edge, because that is where this gets decided. The right-to-work check that quietly requires the “optional” credential. The liability rule that makes identity collection the cheapest legal insurance. The platform partnership that turns an iris scan from a novelty into a prerequisite. The pin does not get hammered in. It gets slid in, one sympathetic millimeter at a time. Don’t fall for it!

The Technocrats that I have tracked for fifteen years have names, funding rounds, federal contracts, and a floor vote. Every victory so far came because people spoke up before the concrete set. Speak up now, while it is still wet.