Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it – Adolf Hitler.

No

Tears

Las Vegas

Express

DYI: 

By their own "ACTS & STATUTES," LEGAL NOTICES ARE ABSOLUTELY REQUIRED of DEATH NOTICES!!!!

Especially in ANY LARGE PUBLIC EVENT where basically, a "MASS MURDER" HAS OCCURRED!!

ZERO in the "NEWSPAPERS".

NOT TO MENTION the absolute lack of shown FATAL WOUNDS!!

EVERY CITIZEN IS BEING LIED TO. IT'S AN ACT/STATUTE THAT WAS PASSED IN RECENT MEMORY (VERY QUIETLY, OF COURSE...) BY CONGRESS; it is now "LEGAL" TO "PROPAGANDIZE" (LIE!) TO AMERICAN CITIZENS.

This was passed to AVOID BEING ARRESTED AND BEING HELD ACCOUNTABLE  FOR...LYING EN-MASS.

ARE YOU SHOCKED?

H.R.5736 - Smith-Mundt Modernization Act of 2012

A BILL

To amend the United States Information and Educational Exchange Act of 1948 to authorize the domestic dissemination of information and material about the United States intended primarily for foreign audiences, and for other purposes.

Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,

SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.

This Act may be cited as the “Smith-Mundt Modernization Act of 2012”.

SEC. 2. DISSEMINATION ABROAD OF INFORMATION ABOUT THE UNITED STATES.

(a) United States Information And Educational Exchange Act Of 1948.—Section 501 of the United States Information and Educational Exchange Act of 1948 (22 U.S.C. 1461) is amended to read as follows:

“GENERAL AUTHORIZATION

“Sec. 501. (a) The Secretary and the Broadcasting Board of Governors are authorized to use funds appropriated or otherwise made available for public diplomacy information programs to provide for the preparation, dissemination, and use of information intended for foreign audiences abroad about the United States, its people, and its policies, through press, publications, radio, motion pictures, the Internet, and other information media, including social media, and through information centers, instructors, and other direct or indirect means of communication.

“(b) (1) Except as provided in paragraph (2), the Secretary and the Broadcasting Board of Governors may, upon request and reimbursement of the reasonable costs incurred in fulfilling such a request, make available, in the United States, motion pictures, films, video, audio, and other materials prepared for dissemination abroad or disseminated abroad pursuant to this Act, the United States International Broadcasting Act of 1994 (22 U.S.C. 6201 et seq.), the Radio Broadcasting to Cuba Act (22 U.S.C. 1465 et seq.), or the Television Broadcasting to Cuba Act (22 U.S.C. 1465aa et seq.). The Secretary and the Broadcasting Board of Governors shall issue necessary regulations—

“(A) to establish procedures to maintain such material;

“(B) for reimbursement of the reasonable costs incurred in fulfilling requests for such material; and

“(C) to ensure that the persons seeking release of such material have secured and paid for necessary United States rights and licenses.

“(2) With respect to material prepared for dissemination abroad or disseminated abroad before the effective date of the Smith-Mundt Modernization Act of 2012—

“(A) the Secretary and the Broadcasting Board of Governors shall make available to the Archivist of the United States, for domestic distribution, motion pictures, films, videotapes, and other material 12 years after the initial dissemination of the material abroad; and

“(B) the Archivist shall be the official custodian of the material and shall issue necessary regulations to ensure that persons seeking its release in the United States have secured and paid for necessary United States rights and licenses and that all costs associated with the provision of the material by the Archivist shall be paid by the persons seeking its release, in accordance with paragraph (3).

“(3) The Archivist may charge fees to recover the costs described in paragraph (2), in accordance with section 2116(c) of title 44. Such fees shall be paid into, administered, and expended as part of the National Archives Trust Fund.

“(c) Nothing in this section may be construed to require the Secretary or the Broadcasting Board of Governors to make material disseminated abroad available in any format other than in the format disseminated abroad.”.

(b) Rule Of Construction.—Nothing in this section may be construed to affect the allocation of funds appropriated or otherwise made specifically available for public diplomacy.

(c) Foreign Relations Authorization Act, Fiscal Years 1986 And 1987.—Section 208 of the Foreign Relations Authorization Act, Fiscal Years 1986 and 1987 (22 U.S.C. 1461–1a) is amended to read as follows:

“SEC. 208. CLARIFICATION ON DOMESTIC DISTRIBUTION OF PROGRAM MATERIAL.

“(a) In General.—No funds authorized to be appropriated to the Department of State or the Broadcasting Board of Governors shall be used to influence public opinion in the United States. This section shall apply only to programs carried out pursuant to the United States Information and Educational Exchange Act of 1948 (22 U.S.C. 1431 et seq.), the United States International Broadcasting Act of 1994 (22 U.S.C. 6201 et seq.), the Radio Broadcasting to Cuba Act (22 U.S.C. 1465 et seq.), and the Television Broadcasting to Cuba Act (22 U.S.C. 1465aa et seq.). This section shall not prohibit or delay the Department of State or the Broadcasting Board of Governors from providing information about its operations, policies, programs, or program material, or making such available, to the media, public, or Congress, in accordance with other applicable law.

“(b) Rule Of Construction.—Nothing in this section shall be construed to prohibit the Department of State or the Broadcasting Board of Governors from engaging in any medium or form of communication, either directly or indirectly, because a United States domestic audience is or may be thereby exposed to program material, or based on a presumption of such exposure. Such material may be made available within the United States and disseminated, when appropriate, pursuant to sections 502 and 1005 of the United States Information and Educational Exchange Act of 1948 (22 U.S.C. 1462 and 1437), except that nothing in this section may be construed to authorize the Department of State or the Broadcasting Board of Governors to disseminate within the United States any program material prepared for dissemination abroad on or before the effective date of the Smith-Mundt Modernization Act of 2012.

“(c) Application.—The provisions of this section shall apply only to the Department of State and the Broadcasting Board of Governors and to no other department or agency of the Federal Government.”.

(d) Conforming Amendments.—The United States Information and Educational Exchange Act of 1948 is amended—

(1) in section 502 (22 U.S.C. 1462)—

(A) by inserting “and the Broadcasting Board of Governors” after “Secretary”; and

(B) by inserting “or the Broadcasting Board of Governors” after “Department”; and

(2) in section 1005 (22 U.S.C. 1437), by inserting “and the Broadcasting Board of Governors” after “Secretary” each place it appears.

(e) Effective Date.—This Act shall take effect and apply on the date that is 180 days after the date of the enactment of this Act.

The NDAA Legalizes The Use Of Propaganda On The US Public

IO are primarily used to target foreign audiences, but Davis cites numerous senior leaders who want to (in the words of  Colonel Richard B. Leap) "protect a key friendly center of gravity, to wit US national will" by repealing the Smith-Mundt Act to allow the direct deployment of these tactics on the American public. 

Davis quotes Brigadier General Ralph O. Baker — the Pentagon officer responsible for the Department of Defense’s Joint Force Development (i.e. Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines) — who defines IO as activities undertaken to "shape the essential narrative of a conflict or situation and thus affect the attitudes and behaviors of the targeted audience" and equates descriptions of combat operations with standard marketing strategies:

DYI:

With so many people and so much pandemonium bigger the death count and wounded making it harder for people to question.  Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it – Adolf Hitler.  Propaganda-101.  Women and men crises actors everywhere and never a tear shed despite the largest mass killing in America!  Many are what I call serial crises actors as they have been at multiple prior faked shootings as well.  Here are videos well worth your time.

100% Proof The Las Vegas Shooting Was A Hoax By Russianvids

Two completely outrageous crises actors' story telling; with a completely complicit main stream media that any critically thinking individual would find hilarious. 

1.)Las Vegas shooting described by nurse, people stepped in to help

2.)James Foley Hoax British Accent Picture Falls Off Wall Siblings Laughing

Set up two screens for YouTube freeze the first video at 0:07 and the second at 3:18 you will see this is clearly the same women (she has dropped about 15 pounds) from the fake Sandy Hook shooting. 

WTH!?! Video of Stephen Paddock Alive AFTER Las Vegas Shooting???

Does make one wonder???  I wouldn’t be surprised!

Miracle in Vegas!!! Head Shot "Victim" Survives Round to Head!!

Las Vegas Shooting: Fake News, Fake Victims, Crisis Actors

At 1:42 notice the perfect makeup – or am I just being catty?? Waving her arms; despite a bullet that supposedly went through her shoulder and punctured a lung.  Notice the tight the camera shots were they actually in a hospital and when did Inside Addition make these videos? 

CNN fake eye witness at Las Vegas Shooting

Zero tears and obviously lying.   At 0:17 freeze and put up closed caption – “hospital so quick you wouldn’t believe it” neither do we!

STEVE PIECZENIK: LAS VEGAS = 911: DAVID KNIGHT: Condensed Oct 4 17

 STEVE PIECZENIK – TOTALLY CORRECT FALSE FLAG SANDY HOOK REDO.  NO ONE WAS KILLED NOT EVEN THE SHOOTER.

DON’T FALL FOR THE MAIN STREAM BS!

I’ll get into who benefits from all of this nonsense in a few days. 

DYI 

Crowds on Demand

YOUR HOME FOR PROTESTS, RALLIES, AUDIENCES, PR STUNTS, AND CELEBRITY EVENTS.

Are you looking to create a buzz anywhere in the United States? At Crowds on Demand, we provide our clients with protests, rallies, flash-mobs, paparazzi events and other inventive PR stunts. These services are available across the country in every major U.S city, every major U.S metro area and even most smaller cities as well. We provide everything including the people, the materials and even the ideas. You can come to us with a specific plan of action and we can make it happen. OR, you can approach us with a general  idea and we can help you plan the strategy then execute it. 

We’ve made campaigns involving hundreds of people come to action in just days. We have a proven record of delivering major wins on even the toughest campaigns and delivering phenomenal experiences with even the most logistically challenging events. 

Our services are now available throughout the United States, so whether you’re looking at doing a single event or a multi-city campaign, we have the resources available to achieve your goals.

A foreign government hired Crowds on Demand to help generate a positive reception for its newly elected leader during the UN General Assembly. The concern was ensuring that the leader was well received by a US audience and confident for his work at the UN. We created demonstrations of support with diverse crowds. We also used the media primarily local and national outlets to bring more attention to these demonstrations which led to a mostly positive portrayal. The crowds that we deployed drew in more supporters creating a strong presence for this leader at the UN and an improved perception of him by the American public.

 DYI:  Yep this is a real corporation that provides propaganda to the highest bidder.  The owners and those who manage this company have zero moral compasses; will package any fake protest, fake rallies, flash-mobs, or fake paparazzi events and other inventive fake PR stunts.  Stunning in their honesty – confession and bragging; – managing propaganda for a newly elected leader addressing the U.N.  Do they hire crises actors as well?

DYI

Hussman

Profit Margin Adjusted

Shiller PE¹⁰

43

October 9, 2017

Why Market Valuations are Not Justified by Low Interest Rates

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

DYI:  Not only is the stock market flying high so are profit margins far above their long term average.  Hussman has adjusted the Shiller PE¹⁰ to reflect abnormally high margins.  Let’s do a little math and see how this changes two of our formulas. 

Margin of Safety!

Central Concept of Investment for the purchase of Common Stocks.

"The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market..."

Stocks compared to bonds:

Earnings Yield Coverage Ratio - [EYC Ratio]

EYC Ratio = [ (1/PE10) x 100] x 1.1] / Bond Rate

1.75 plus: Safe for large lump sums & DCA

1.30 plus: Safe for DCA

1.29 or less: Mid-Point - Hold stocks and purchase bonds.

1.00 or less: Sell stocks - rebalance portfolio - Re-think stock/bond allocation.

Current EYC Ratio: 1.01  0.72 (rounded)

As of 10-10-17
Updated Monthly

PE10 as report by Multpl.com

Bond Rate is the rate as reported by

Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Investor Shares (VWESX)

DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging.
Lump Sum any amount greater than yearly salary.

PE10  .........30.83  43
Bond Rate...3.54%

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earnings power over bond interest may aggregate 4/3 of the price paid. This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety--which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss......If the purchases are made at the average level of the market over a span of years, the prices paid should carry with them assurance of an adequate margin of safety.  The danger to investors lies in concentrating their purchases in the upper levels of the market.....

Common Sense Investing:
The Papers of Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham

%

Allocation Formula

10-01-17
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 – [100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 2)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]

Current PE10.....30.83 43

Avg. PE10.........16.78

% Stock Allocation 11%  0%

Logic behind this approach:

--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 

--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the median, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 20 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.      

  

DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

America’s

Great Unraveling? 

The U.S. Justice System Must Focus on Elite Criminality

Two very important articles published in recent days serve to once again highlight America’s metastasizing elite criminality problem. A problem which our justice system simply refuses to address. This corrupt two-tier justice system is something I’ve been focused on from the very beginning of my writings, and I continue to see it as a civilization-level threat for this country if not aggressively addressed and confronted in the very near future. 

If we don’t get a grip on this now and begin to marshal our resources against the most dangerous criminals in America — those from the highest echelons of U.S. society — the country will continue to unravel and in an increasingly dangerous and chaotic fashion.

 DYI 

Bubble

News

Domino Effect

One domino falling after another – country to country – driving down massively overvalued U.S. stock and bond markets

Australia's Luck Has Run Out

Australia’s record of 26 years without a recession flatters to deceive. The gaudy numbers mask serious flaws in the country’s economic model.

DYI: 26 years is WOW!  However, to use an overused word “massive” economic imbalances and distortions are every where in the land down under.

First and most obviously, the Australian economy is still far too dependent on “houses and holes.” During part of the typical business cycle, national income and prosperity are driven by exports of commodities -- primarily iron ore, liquefied natural gas and coal -- that come out of holes in the ground. At other times, low interest rates and easy credit boost house prices, propping up economic activity. These two forces have combined with one of the highest population growth rates in the developed world (around 1.5 percent annually, driven mostly by immigration) to prop up headline growth. 

Yet a significant portion of housing activity is speculative. Going by measures such as price-to-rent or price-to-disposable income, Australia’s property market looks substantially overvalued.

 DYI:

Australia is living in a debt bubble that has manifested into a housing bubble.  Cheap credit – low interest rates and easy access – will sink this island continent into a 10 to 15 year economic quagmire. 

U.S. peaked at 130%  

Annual growth in Sydney house prices the strongest in 14 years

House prices in Sydney are up an unbelievable 18.4 per cent on a year ago. This is the highest annual growth rate in 14 years — since the 12 months ending December 2002 when the housing boom of the early 2000s started to slow.

Over the past five years, Sydney house prices have surged 75 per cent.

CoreLogic has pegged Sydney house prices at almost 8.5 times higher than gross annual income, based on September 2016 data.

But Demographia’s recent International Housing Affordability Survey, released in January, put Sydney’s house price to income ratio as high as 12.2 times.

In any case, Sydney’s housing market is severely unaffordable and it doesn’t seem to be simmering.

Whether 8 or 12 times gross yearly income anyone purchasing a house at this level has no intention – nor financial ability – of ever paying it off but to sell later to a greater fool willing (and able to handle the payments) to pay an even higher price.  Clearly a house of cards ready to fall.  Housing just as it is here in the States is considered a sacred right with the Australian government pulling out all of the stops to keep the party going.  These maneuvers of easy access plus sub atomic low rates to credit; is by overt design to maintain the house of cards and keep Members of Parliament (MP’s) squarely in their Canberra (capital of Australia) seats. 

A domino set to fall.

Update on the Deflating Housing Bubble in Toronto

Alas, “in the spring” – precisely in April – Toronto’s housing bubble peaked with a final and phenomenal melt-up of home prices: The average price had soared 30%  year-over-year to C$920,761! And the mood of the housing market was at its most buoyant. 

What has gotten hit the hardest is the most expensive segment: The market for detached houses. As sales volume plunged 40% in September, the average price plunged 16% from the April peak to C$1.015 million, which is still very high and still makes Toronto one of the most inflated housing bubbles in the world, but it’s now flat year-over-year – after having been up 33.4% year-over-year in April.

Six stunning numbers about Toronto real estate and your personal finances

Based on the March average price, a house in Toronto cost 11.7 times the median total family income. Back in the day, it was said that a house was affordable when it cost three times your income. You can still pull this off in some parts of Canada, notably in the Atlantic provinces. In St. John's, the average house sold for $262,296 in February, and the median family income was an estimated $98,304. 

Ottawa, just 4.5 hours away by car from Toronto, has a much higher median family income and much cheaper housing. Vancouver is king of unaffordable housing with a ratio of average house price to income of 12.5 to one.

So goes Ontario so goes Canada with the Toronto Metroplex setting the economic tone.  All you need is one number 11.7 – housing cost to income.  Once again at that level there is no intention of ever paying off the house only later to find an even greater fool willing and able (to handle the payments) to pay an ever increasing price.  It appears this house of cards may have begun to unwind.  This dampening of prices has occurred since Ontario and Ottawa have clamped down with additional housing taxes directed at foreign purchasers (Chinese).  Politically a smart move; when the crash ensues; Members of Parliament will have foreign speculators to blame especially those in far off lands.

 

Another domino ready to fall. 

Puerto Rico Is Running Out of Money

While attention has focused on the commonwealth’s staggering $74 billion debt, Puerto Rico faces a more immediate crisis in the wake of the storm. It’s running short of money for fuel, salaries of recovery workers and food aid. Meanwhile, only 8.6 percent of customers have electricity, mobile-phone service is sharply curtailed and many mountainous rural areas remain inaccessible.

According to Moody’s, Puerto Rico’s debt per capita of $15,637 is more than 10 times higher than the average debt per capita of the 50 states.

 Puerto Rico is now a failed state.  75 billion and growing as interest continues to compound all brought on by massive stupidity and massive corruption.  The only way to turn around the fortunes of San Juan is Statehood and should be a condition – through back channels – for any bail out program work out of the debt and restoration of the island devastated by the hurricane. 

To put this in perspective Puerto Rico is almost double (1.90) the size of Rhode Island and smaller than the State of Connecticut.  An island of 3515 square miles with a population of 3.8 million comparable to Kentucky with 4.4 million.  To say the least; this is an island of land mass magnitude; with a population of size and have been granted statutory citizenship since 1917.  To bring Puerto Rico up to standard of our 50 states would require close to a trillion dollars and 10 to 15 year time frame – only Statehood fits this criteria.     

Another domino ready to fall.

Catalonia Chaos Begins to Squeeze Spain’s Financial Markets

Spain’s benchmark index, the Ibex 35, slumped nearly 3% following its worst day of trading since the Brexit vote last June. Spain’s 10-year risk premium — the differential between the yield on its 10-year bonds and the yield on Germany’s 10-year bonds — soared to 129 basis points. And that’s despite the fact that the ECB continues to buy Spanish debt hand over fist.

Breaking up is hard to do!  Madrid didn’t take kindly to Catalonia’s vote by sending in their federal police goons.  If the vote was illegal it would have had no binding effect; therefore the vote would only been a large scale opinion poll.  Madrid’s heavy handed approach had the effect of moving any few residual remain votes to be swayed to leave.  Brexit and now Catalonia is only the beginning of the dissolution of countries and the EU.     

Another domino ready to fall.

The Only Russia Story That Matters

Russia’s desire to break away from the hegemony of the U.S. dollar and the dollar payment system is well-known. Over 60% of global reserves and 80% of global payments are in dollars. The U.S. is the only country with veto power at the International Monetary Fund, the global lender of last resort. 

Perhaps Russia’s most aggressive weapon in its war on dollars is gold. The first line of defense is to acquire physical gold, which cannot be frozen out of the international payments system or hacked.

Russia, China and their spheres of influence will soon be brought on line in an effort to breakaway from dollar hegemony.  Once this is up and running “the cat will be out of the bag” with many other countries within America’s sphere of influence trading both dollars and Russia/China gold platforms.  Over the next months and years this will drive down the value of the dollar destabilizing our stock, bond, and real estate markets.  Gold of course will have a big boost in price as the almighty buck no longer the world’s reserve currency will be seen as a depreciating (fiat) currency.

   

Another domino ready to fall. 

U.S. stock and bond markets flying high with extreme valuations.  Stocks as measured by Shiller PE¹⁰ are at a nose bleed level of 31.11 times earnings.  And interest rates are at sub atomic low levels (10 yr T-bonds 2.37%).  When you are on top of the mountain no matter what direction you go - its down!

So…Hang onto your gold and cash better values are ahead – as the dominoes’ fall one by one.

Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 10/1/17

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 60%

78% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

22% -Gold- Precious Metals & Mining - VGPMX

 0% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

 This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

DYI

Bubble

News

Asset prices are high across the board. Is it time to worry?

IN HIS classic, “The Intelligent Investor”, first published in 1949, Benjamin Graham, a Wall Street sage, distilled what he called his secret of sound investment into three words: “margin of safety”. The price paid for a stock or a bond should allow for human error, bad luck or, indeed, many things going wrong at once. In a troubled world of trade tiffs and nuclear braggadocio, such advice should be especially worth heeding. Yet rarely have so many asset classes—from stocks to bonds to property to bitcoins—exhibited such a sense of invulnerability. 

Dear assets are hardly the product of euphoria. No one would mistake the bloodless run-up in global stock markets, credit and property over the past eight years for a reprise of the “roaring 20s”, or even an echo of the dotcom mania of the late 1990s. Yet only at the peak of those two bubbles has America’s S&P 500 been higher as a multiple of earnings measured over a ten-year cycle. Rarely have creditors demanded so little insurance against default, even on the riskiest “junk” bonds. And rarely have property prices around the world towered so high. American house prices have bounced back since the financial crisis and are above their long-term average relative to rents. Those in Britain are well above it. And in Canada and Australia, they are in the stratosphere. Add to this the craze for exotica, such as crypto currencies (see Free exchange), and the world is in the throes of a bull market in everything.

 DYI:

There are two assets that are reasonably priced – gold – and money market funds or short dated bonds.  As the article states everything else is grotesquely over valued to point future returns – go to sleep like Rip Van Winkle – wake up in 10 to 12 years returns will be sub atomic at best and worse negative.  DYI’s sentiment chart positions our four major asset categories – stocks, long term bonds, gold (precious metals mining companies) and cash (MMF or short dated notes). 

Market Sentiment

Smart Money buys aggressively!
Capitulation
Despondency
Max-Pessimism *Market Bottoms* Short Term Bonds
Depression MMF
Hope Gold
Relief *Market returns to Mean* 

Smart Money buys the Dips!
Optimism
Media Attention
Enthusiasm

Smart Money - Sells the Rallies!
Thrill
Greed
Delusional
Max-Optimism *Market Tops* U.S. Stocks
Denial of Problem Long Term Bonds
Anxiety
Fear
Desperation

Smart Money Buys Aggressively!
Capitulation

When you’re on top of the mountain no matter which way you go is down.  Short term I have no idea which way the market will move as market participants could very easily “jack up” this market further.  Yesterday Shiller PE¹⁰ closed out at the nose bleed level of 31.14 driving down future returns.

Shiller PE10 as of 10-05-17 is 31.14

So…Hold onto your hats and cash better values are ahead!

DYI

Disclaimer

Oil Indicator
10/1/17
Updated Monthly

Oil Prices: 
10/01/12....$112.25

10/03/17......$51.36   

Down 49%(rounded)
(oil prices approximately five years earlier due to weekends & holidays)
ANS West Coast prices   

 OIL INDICATOR:  Positive  Oil indicator will remain positive until it's rise is greater than 75% from five years earlier.

Oil prices are well known for their volatility in the short term, longer term due to dwindling reserves energy prices are in a secular bull market.  Technologies such as fracking will extend the life of oil fields but major new discoveries arrive at a snails pace far slower than the world's growth.  

As long as prices rise in a slow and orderly pace our economy can adjust to those changes, however if prices spike (international tensions, war etc.) high energy costs behave as a massive deflationary tax. This will send our economy tumbling down and very possibly the U.S. stock market.

If oil prices rise greater than 75% from five years earlier, investors at that time should shift their portfolio geared towards deflationary times.  This would be an oil indicator as negative.

If oil prices rise from five years earlier less than 10% or drop then the inflationary play is in effect; a positive for economic growth along with possible higher stock prices.

Where to find five year earlier oil prices?  Alaska Department of Revenue    

Oil indicator positive              
20%  REIT's
20%  Energy
20%  P.M.'s
40%  Small Caps
  0%  Lt. Gov't Bonds

Oil indicator negative
  5%  REIT's
10%  Energy
10%  P.M's
10%  Small Caps
65%  Lt. Gov't Bonds

Vanguard Funds

REIT's
REIT Index Admiral  VGSLX

Energy
Energy Fund  VGENX

Precious Metals (P.M.'s)
Precious Metals and Mining Fund  VGPMX

Small Caps
Small Cap Value Index Admiral  VSIAX

Long Term Government Bonds
Long-Term Government Bond Index Admiral  VLGSX

Disclaimer

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The

Demassification

Of

Europe and United States

Observations - Catalonia, Spain, France and the U.S.

Central government of Spain ruled the succession vote to be illegal – all based upon a twisted, mangled, excuse driven ruling to thwart a democratic process from happening.  Why?  The top leaders – especially the President of the Government - Mariano Rajoy Brey – knew if the vote were to happen succession would win in a lopsided fashion.  Despite all of Madrid’s heavy handed use of Federal police they were unable to shut down all polling stations.  Despite this around 25% of Catalonia’s possible voters 90% VOTED FOR SECESSION!

What prompted the vote – and this has been brewing for decades – Catalonia is an economic dynamo paying a disproportion of taxes to Madrid and receiving very little back as well.  This is a failure of socialism which works fine in the beginning until you run out of other people’s money.  In this case Catalonia – they haven’t run out of money but see the hand writing on the wall now that the socialist EU has added on all of their anti-business regulations, additional taxes, with an expanding welfare state.  The success of Brexit has emboldened Catalonian’s so the vote took place.

Word of warning Madrid and EU

If Madrid and the EU don’t end their anti-business, socialism, welfare state programs – the odds of that happening is hell freezing over – the Catalonian’s will move from paper ballots to firearms and forcibly kick out Madrid and the EU as well.  Moving to an oversized city state with Barcelona as the capital and economic epicenter.  Historically all that is required is 10% of the populous willing to take up arms; with the vote at the 90% margin that historical requirement has more than met by a factor of 3 to 5 times.  A tinder box just waiting for a match.  Madrid and EU’s autocratic and outright flamethrower oppression will ignite Catalonia into force of arms.  This is not a question of if but when!

Basque Region – Overlapping Spain and France will be embolden and energized to form a new country.

The Basque region has been a source of tension and discord within each country and between the two countries for at least 200 years.  Their culture is so much different than the French or Spain was written about by the Romans!  Times may change but the people have not making for the classic artificial borders only held together by silver (redistribution of taxes) or lead (the heavy hand of police and military).  So much so the Basque region is officially in “cease fire” since 2014 as the separatist ETA ended their 40 years of hostilities and turned in their guns – of course no one believes they turned all of their weapons in hostilities could begin at anytime.  So...Emboldened and energized hopefully by the ballot box only but with the known France, Spain, EU statists heavy hand of centralization will only inflame very, very old wounds.

America’s Great Unraveling – 

Patriots and our 50 States will no longer tolerate an – oppressive – bloated – tax gouging – war mongering – Federal Government – for the benefit of global sized corporate monopolies feudal state.

The Patriot grass roots movements as opposed to the well funded corporate/non-profit socialist groups are in the beginning stage of conflict. Patriots have remained peaceful, however cannot be said of the socialists who have resorted to divide and conquer violence all orchestrated by the Shadow Governments main players – CIA (operational control) – Legacy Main Stream Media (dissemination of propaganda) – NSA (eyes/ears CIA).

Internet – Patriot’s not so secret weapon

Information is being decentralized at a fevers pace dislodging the legacy main stream press from their perch as the final arbiters of truth.  Their days are numbered as newly formed news organizations funded internally (selling their own products) and more importantly citizen journalist sponsored by donations from their readers/viewers have cut through the propaganda bringing about a renaissance if not rebirth of honest reporting.  Don’t get me wrong there is a share of charlatans among the alternative press.  Compared to the outrageous propaganda spewing legacy main stream these abuses are small potatoes AND when given multiple choices over time American’s BS detectors are able to determine the wheat from the chaff.

911 – Federal Government Tyranny.  

To use the movie matrix analogy the red pill and its opposite, the blue pill, are popular cultural symbols representing the choice between: Knowledge, freedom and the (sometimes painful) truth of reality (red pill) Falsehood, security and the blissful ignorance of illusion (blue pill) symbolizes 911.  For those who took the red pill – looked beyond the legacy media and the 911 errors, omissions, fantasy report a Patriot was born.  Clearly a false flag operation carried out by our own government to propel America off to continuous war all for the benefit of the Military Industrial Complex, oil and gas industry, and global bankers.  For me and many others this was our RED PILL MOMENT.

Shadow Government Lashes Out.

The shadow government is losing the information war as citizens are awaken (red pill) to our tyrannical federal government.  They (shadow government) will double and triple down with divide and conquer tactics of violence.  The Las Vegas shooting whether a lone wolf madman or something more sinister is symptomatic of more to come.  So far Patriots have remained non violent preferring the ballot box or the court house pushing and pulling to our constitutional roots.  Just as in Catalonia their patience will wear thin as the violence ramps up to a fever pace.

Patriots will win – I don’t know how it will play out.

Hopefully the Patriot’s will overwhelm the socialist shadow government along with the deep state restoring America back to its constitutional roots through the ballot box and court rooms.  Hopefully this will not turn into a two sided shooting match…The demassification (decentralizing) of countries – America included – moves forward ending artificial boundaries such as the Soviet Union – Gone, Yugoslavia – Gone, possibly Scotland, Catalonia and Basque, Alberta Canada AND the significant reduction in size of the U.S. Federal Government.  

 DYI

Competition

Destroyer

Boon to Big Business!

Illinois’ $15-per-hour Minimum Wage Proposal Is Just ‘Pie in the Sky’

Illinois’ legislators proposed a $15 per-hour minimum wage bill, to be realized by 2022, under the assumption that it would benefit workers at jobs that were never meant for heads of households in the first place, but instead were often entry level job for teens. 

Did it ever occur to lawmakers that the unfunded mandate would mostly be imposed upon small businesses, that the wage increase would set into motion a push to raise the wages of others who were at or near to the $15-per-hour wage level, and that if businesses are unable to find money in their budget to pay for the wage hikes, robots, which don’t have to paid either benefits or salaries, will take the place of humans? 

The $15 Minimum Wage movement had its fourth anniversary on November 29, 2016.  On this anniversary thousands of Fight for 15 supporters calling for a fairer minimum wage, marched, sat in and got arrested in 340 cities across the nation, including Chicago. 

At first the Fight for 15 movement was all about fast-food workers, but it has now expanded to include airport workers, childcare workers, adjunct professors and more, making the movement one of the nation’s largest progressive movements alongside movements by undocumented immigrants, Black Lives Matter and environmental activists fighting global warming.

DYI QUICK COMMENT:  Undocumented workers?  Their correctly called illegals – not someone who didn’t fill out a few forms and everything is ok.  

Global warming?  Activists using the global warming scam as a means to create a “climate crises.” Their remedy for this falsehood (man made) climate change requires a centralized economy to eliminate the underpinnings of global warming.  This provides a platform to propel a socialist state by attempting to shred free(dom)-market ideology.

A day after the House passed its $15 minimum wage bill, the Senate followed suit on May 31, with its proposal to raise the state’s minimum wage of $8.25, incrementally, until it reached $15 in 2022.  Democratic Senator Kimberly Lightford, the bill’s sponsor, described the bill as the best chance to raise wages and improve living conditions for many Illinois residents.

 Illinois legislator’s throw a bone to small business!

(DYI) 

• Even though tax credits would be available to businesses with 50 employees or fewer to help cover the costs, Mark Grant, state director for the National Federation of Independent Business, in a written statement, warned that businesses would have limited options in dealing with the wage increase.

Can Illinois afford to lose more jobs or impede businesses from expanding or creating jobs, when according to the U.S. Department of Labor Illinois has added only a net 100 jobs since the year 2000? That means Illinois employers have added 1 new job every two months.  Not only will the young find it more difficult to get first jobs, but technology will replace employees because of increased cost.

DYI:

If this legislation passes in Illinois will be a boon to big business reducing competition from small business the life blood of capitalism.  Small companies – despite the tax credit(s) bone – will hamper the formation of new businesses thus a reduction in employment.  Since competition will be lessened the big firms will be able to pass on some of the costs to their customers plus this will speed up automation reducing employment further.  From a politician’s point of view – especially Democrats who are in bed with big government/big business (fascists) – this is a four way win.

1. Those who do receive the new $15 dollar an hour minimum wage will be endured to vote Democrat.
2. The newly unemployed will leave the State of Illinois seeking employment opportunities else where thus unable to vote against the politician(s) who enacted this job killing legislation.
3. Those who do stay will out of necessity move onto the numerous welfare schemes thus once again enduring them to the Democratic party.
4. Big business has lessened competition.  Politicians will score campaign contributions furthering their reelection possibilities plus possible job opportunities with these corporations after finishing a political career.

DYI

Don’t

Confuse Brains

With a Bull Market!

More than a million people join ranks of very wealthy after stock markets boom

It comes as a growing number of politicians, economists and even the super-wealthy themselves are speaking out about the dangers of growing inequality across the world.

 DYI:

No mention in the article regarding how massively overvalued the market is.  DYI is anticipating from a peak to trough decline around 55% to 70% all over a multi-month time period making short work out of some of the newly minted multi-millionaires dropping many out of the wealthy classification completely.  So hang onto your hats and your cash better values are ahead!

DYI