War

Drums

U.S. Navy carrier drills with Japan, India navies in Sea of Japan

The U.S. Navy carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan, conducted three days of drills with a Japanese destroyer and two Indian warships in the Sea of Japan, Japan's navy said on Tuesday. 

The exercise involving five ships, which ended Monday, came amid heightened tension in the region over North Korea's ballistic missile and nuclear tests and as U.S. President Donald Trump began a 12-day tour of Asia beginning in Japan on Sunday.

 TRUMP WARNS NORTH KOREA: DO NOT 'TRY US'

BY JONATHAN LEMIRE AND JILL COLVIN

ASSOCIATED PRESS

"The weapons you are acquiring are not making you safer, they are putting your regime in grave danger," Trump told an audience of South Korean lawmakers, calling on all nations to join forces "to isolate the brutal regime of North Korea."

DYI Quick Note:  The UPI & CIA are one and the same.  The CIA’s direct mouthpiece.  Just thought you should know. 

 DYI

Bubble

News

We’ll Look Back At This And Cringe, Part 1: European Junk Bonds Yield Less Than US Treasuries

Financial bubbles are the office Christmas parties of the investment world. They start slowly, with a certain amount of anxiety. But they end wildly, with acts and decisions that in retrospect seem really, really stupid. 

Millions of people out there still bear the psychic scars of buying gold at $800/oz in 1980 or a tech stock at 1,000 times earnings in 1999 or a Miami condo for $1,000 per square foot in 2006. 

Today’s bubble will leave some similar marks. But where those previous bubbles were narrowly focused on a single asset class, this one is so broad-based that the hangover is likely to be epic in both scope and cumulative embarrassment. 

This series will create a paper trail for the morning after, starting with a truly amazing anomaly: European junk bonds now yield less than US Treasury bonds.

German Investors 

Now World’s Largest Gold Buyers

The past seemed to be catching up with the future following the financial crisis when savers once again began to see their savings disappear. Following the ECB’s decision to slash interest rates German banks began charging customers to hold their cash, and yields on German bunds dropped into negative territory. 

It isn’t surprising that that this triggered Germany’s gold shopping spree. This was supported by the country’s growing gold bullion network that has made it easier for customers to buy and store gold bullion and coins. 

Their concerns about the banking system drove up demand for the physical, allocated gold products of the 100-150 non-bank bullion dealers across the country. Investor behavior shows that gold buyers are clearly seeking out physical gold that they can take delivery of should they so wish. 

It is clear that German investors are not swayed by the ‘newspeak’ the rest of the West seems so taken by. Whilst it is undoubtedly the 2008 financial crisis that set off the boom in gold demand, it is the value placed on gold as a diversifying asset that has sustained the market. 

The ratio of investors buying gold bars and coins compared to those selling is around 10:1. This is despite the economy looking healthy and unemployment at its lowest since the 1990 reunification.

I Expect New Record Low Long Bond Yield (U.S. Treasuries)

Yield as of 11/7/17 

2.80%

Every attempt of the 30-Year long bond to break out of a decades-long downtrend fails.

 At the end of October, the long bond yield was 2.96%. Six days into November, it's back at 2.80%. Meanwhile, short-term rates continue to rise.

We are a recession away from a new record low yield on the long bond.

The stock market and the 30-Year long bond yield are at odds. I believe the long bond. If the economy was truly strengthening, the yield on the long bond would not be acting like it is.

 DYI:

This last article is from Mike Shedlock’s Global Economic Trend Analysis.  One of his readers responded in the comment section that is well thought out as a very possible future scenario for asset prices.

Treasuries, along with precious metals, are one of the few remaining asset classes that is negatively correlated to risk assets like stocks, REITs, high yield bonds, etc. If we ever have a prolonged risk off move or a recession, there will be an avalanche of money, both foreign and domestic, trying to get into one of these rare safe harbors. I think yields will ultimately go negative far out onto the Treasury yield curve in this scenario, perhaps even to the 10 year note.

DYI’s averaging formula has a small commitment with 2% in long term bonds.  Bond yield are now 95% above their long term average – as measured by the 10 year Treasury Bonds.

My thoughts have not changed.  First it will be a deflationary smash as Treasury bonds soar with yields as far out 5 year notes going negative and possibly out as far as 10 year maturities.  Along with U.S. stocks from peak to trough declining 55% to 70% AND junk bonds crushed 70% to 90%!  If you thought the Fed’s balance sheet was bloated you haven’t seen anything yet!  Expect massive QE as the Federal Reserve [their private & have no reserves] buys up treasuries, corporate bonds, stocks not just the U.S. market the major world markets as well.  The Fed’s don’t work for the average citizen but for their member banks especially New York centered old moneyed interests (Rockefeller’s, Mellon’s, Warburg’s, Kennedy’s, Morgan’s, Rothschild’s, etc.).

To keep their money machines going asset prices need to be elevated and modest inflation oscillating 2% to 5% so debt holders will be able to pay back the interest with cheaper dollars maintaining the never ending debt based moneyed system going.  Once the banks are rescued, interest and dividends from the Fed’s portfolio will go straight to the Treasury to help fund all of our massive social programs as Boomer’s begin to retire.  Not a free lunch, this interest and dividends are pure inflationary as these dollars to purchase those stocks and bonds were “ginned up” out of thin air – digitally printed. 

  Updated Monthly

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO - ACTIVE ALLOCATION - 11/1/17

Active Allocation Bands (excluding cash) 0% to 60%

73% - Cash -Short Term Bond Index - VBIRX

25% -Gold- Precious Metals & Mining - VGPMX

 2% -Lt. Bonds- Long Term Bond Index - VBLTX

 0% -Stocks- Total Stock Market Index - VTSAX

[See Disclaimer]

 This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

American

Liquid Gold

Urine?  

How Doctors Are Getting Rich on Urine Tests for Opioid Patients

Want to turn that pain clinic into a real moneymaker? Open your own urine-testing lab and start billing Medicare.

The high-tech testing lab’s raw material has become liquid gold for the doctors who own Comprehensive Pain Specialists. This testing process, driven by the nation’s epidemic of painkiller addiction, generates profits across the doctor-owned network of 54 clinics, the largest pain-treatment practice in the Southeast. Medicare paid the company at least $11 million for urine and related tests in 2014, when five of its professionals stood among the nation’s top billers. One nurse practitioner at the company’s clinic in Cleveland, Tennessee, single-handedly generated $1.1 million in Medicare billings for urine tests that year, according to Medicare records.  

Kaiser Health News, with assistance from researchers at the Mayo Clinic, analyzed available billing data from Medicare and private insurance billing nationwide and found that spending on urine screens and related genetic tests quadrupled from 2011 to 2014, to an estimated $8.5 billion a year—more than the entire budget of the Environmental Protection Agency. The federal government paid providers more to conduct urine drug tests in 2014 than it spent on the four most recommended cancer screenings combined. 

As alarm spread about opioid deaths and overdoses in the past decade, doctors who prescribed the pills were looking for ways to prevent abuse and avert liability. Entrepreneurs saw a lucrative business model: persuade doctors that testing would keep them out of trouble with licensing boards or law enforcement and protect their patients from harm. Some companies offered doctors technical help opening up their own labs.

 DYI

America’s

Wars of Perpetuity!  

North Korea SURROUNDED: US warships, bombers, missiles and 80,000 soldiers READY

NORTH Korea is nearly totally surrounded by a wall of US warships, bombers and missiles with more than 80,000 soldiers on alert as Donald Trump heads for Asia.

DYI:

Las Vegas fake shooting, I’m about 60% convinced the truck attack was faked in Manhattan (New York City) [need more time to investigate] and now the latest ALLEGED church shooting in Sutherland Springs Texas east of the San Antonio metroplex, very rural, so rural the town is Unincorporated.  Very easy to lock down and control the propaganda…A distinct possibility.  Until I have verified evidence that someone has died I have moved to the default position that it is faked.  To keep the American public distracted while America gins up another war.  Possibly with North Korea is my speculation.   

DYI

American

Surveillance State

State’s border security planes fly over San Antonio neighborhoods

Two high-altitude surveillance planes the state bought for more than $15 million to help secure the Mexican border are regularly circling over San Antonio, according to records and interviews, but details about exactly what they’re doing are scarce. 

The Swiss-built Pilatus aircraft are each equipped with more than $1 million in high-definition cameras, capable of capturing images night and day, clear enough that they can show the color of someone’s shirt from two miles overhead. Pilots are guided by powerful mapping software that can superimpose addresses and parcel data over the live video, which can be streamed in real-time by Department of Public Safety officials on the ground. 

 

“There is no expectation of privacy when the individual is in plain view of others in a public place,” Vinger said. “Also, the quality of the image-capturing equipment is not typically sufficient enough to identify a person’s face.”

DYI QUICK COMMENT highlighted statement is total BS the fly in the ointment the individual in question would need to look upwards due to line of sight for the high resolution cameras.

DYI

Medical Industrial Complex

News

Billionaire pharma founder busted in opioid scheme

October 26, 2017

The billionaire founder of Insys Therapeutics was arrested on Thursday on US charges that he participated in a scheme with other executives to bribe doctors to prescribe a fentanyl-based cancer pain drug and to defraud insurers. 

John Kapoor, 74, who stepped down as chief executive of Insys in January, was charged with having engaged in conspiracies to commit racketeering, mail fraud and wire fraud in an indictment filed in federal court in Boston. 

It says they, with others, devised a scheme to pay bribes in the form of speaker fees and food and entertainment to medical practitioners to prescribe Subsys and to increase the dosage and volume of existing prescriptions. 

They also sought to mislead and defraud insurers who were reluctant to approve payment for Subsys when it was prescribed to patients who did not have cancer, the indictment said.

DYI 

Madrid’s

Heavy Hand

Will Catalonia Resort to Force of Arms?

History Say’s YES!

Catalonia crisis: Sacked ministers held in Spanish jails

Prosecutors had asked the judge to detain eight of the nine former regional government members who turned up for questioning in Madrid. 

They are accused of rebellion, sedition and misuse of public funds. 

Prosecutors are also seeking a European Arrest Warrant for ousted Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont. 

The request also covers four other dismissed Catalan ministers who did not show up in court in Madrid as requested, but have been in Belgium since Monday.

 DYI

The Swiss throw in the towel and devalue the franc...straight to the performance bottom since secular year 2000 top!

Swiss

Devaluation!

11-1-17
Updated Monthly

Secular Market Top - Since January 2000

+103.3% Dow       

+227.8% Transports 

+165.8% Utilities

+75.3%  S&P 500

+65.3%  Nasdaq

+55.6%  30yr Treasury Bond

+338.7% Gold

+112.4% Oil
 +22.1% Swiss Franc's

    

From High to Low

+338.7% Gold

+227.8% Transports

+165.8% Utilities

+112.4% Oil
+103.3% Dow

+ 75.3% S&P 500 

+ 65.3% Nasdaq  
+ 55.6% 30yr Treasury Bond  

+ 22.1% Swiss Franc's

December 1999 Shiller PE10 was 44.19               
August 2000 S&P 500 dividend yield was 1.11%  

Shiller PE10 11-01-17 is 31.48
S&P 500 dividend yield 11-01-17 is 1.87%

Valuation

Overload!

%

Allocation Formula

11-01-17
Updated Monthly

% Allocation = 100 – [100 x (Current PE10 – Avg. PE10 / 2)  /  (Avg.PE10 x 2 – Avg. PE10 / 2)]

Current PE10.....31.47

Avg. PE10.........16.80

% Stock Allocation 8% 

Logic behind this approach:

--As the stock market becomes more expensive, a conservative investor's stock allocation should go down. The rationale recognizes the reduced expected future returns for stocks, and the increasing risk. 

--The formula acknowledges the increased likelihood of the market falling from current levels based on historical valuation levels and regression to the median, rather than from volatility. Many agree this is the key to value investing.  

Please note there is controversy regarding the divisor (Avg. PE10).  The average since 1881 as reported by Multpl.com is 16.70.  However, Larry Swedroe and others believe that using a revised Shiller P/E mean of 19.6 , the number since 1960 ( a 53-year period), reflects more modern accounting procedures.

DYI adheres to the long view where over time the legacy (prior 1959) values will be absorbed into the average.  Also it can be said with just as much vigor the last 20 years corporate America has been noted for accounting irregularities.  So....If you use the higher or lower number, or average them, you'll be within the guide posts of value.      

  

DYI

This blog site is not a registered financial advisor, broker or securities dealer and The Dividend Yield Investor is not responsible for what you do with your money.

This site strives for the highest standards of accuracy; however ERRORS AND OMISSIONS ARE ACCEPTED!

The Dividend Yield Investor is a blog site for entertainment and educational purposes ONLY.

The Dividend Yield Investor shall not be held liable for any loss and/or damages from the information herein.

Use this site at your own risk.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

The Formula.

A value based allocation strategy

February 19, 2010 by John Kingham

Dr. Steve Pieczenik

Las Vegas Shooting Hoax

Welcome Aboard!

Crisis Actors Commit Treason!

October 21, 2017 Dr. Steve R. Pieczenik, MD, PhD

Thanks to one of my emailers, Kristie Oaks, who made me aware that a new batch of “phony Americans” are willing to prostitute themselves out as ‘crisis actors’ for an impending ersatz crisis. Nothing is more repulsive to me than a man, woman or child who is willing to sell his/her integrity for a few shekels to betray this country in an absurd event: the false flag. 

 DYI:

DYI has been saying the very same thing since Sandy Hook in 2012.  How can anyone prostitute themselves just for a few dollars?  I can only guess these people believe this will enhance a career in the entertainment business.  Talk about nerve to put on one’s portfolio acting credentials the degree to which you terrorized the American public acting in a fake shooting!  And those crises actors who pretend to be wounded and are committing charity fraud with your gofundme accounts along with the fake dead raising money for the families as well.  Shameful our society has degraded to this degree!    

“Sandy Hook”, a complete fiasco of reality, underscored the degree to which local/ state police and Connecticut officials are willing to “whore themselves” for a few million dollars. 

The Newtown School had already been closed for asbestos contamination prior to the event. Yet, the idiot denizens of this Connecticut town/state were willing to partake in an Obama/Holder act of treason akin to shouting ‘fire’ in a movie theater [for which one would be arrested ASAP!]. 

Not one of the crisis actors was arrested. Lets consider that the governor, the bureaucrats, and the local citizens conspired in one of the most pathetic scenarios of a non-existent autistic boy not-committing an act of terror/massive child-killing.  #Fake News played up the volume of this farce but journalists who dared to question or declared the event false were demonetized, sued, fired or all of the above. Sounds like East Berlin? Communist Russia?….you betcha, same tactics. 

It is about time that truthers start to sue the feds, congress, and state/local officials for a panoply of felonious activities. 

In a dysfunctional world where American politicians have initiated wars which last for sixteen years [Afghanistan]; it’s time that the Republic awaken from its stupor and finish the farce entitled ‘Federal /State Govt’. 

America must retain this one truth: the individual is always superior to the collective in the USG. We must fight until that point will be made clear. Perhaps, like our founding fathers who endured real violence and real bullets; citizens must fight the stupidity /arrogance of our political elite. No one is above the law. 

Let us not forget the New Hampshire motto; 

“Live free or die!” 

 DYI