Monday, January 20, 2014

China experiences worst economic growth in 14 years


The majority of experts see a further slowdown of the Chinese economy in 2014, down to 7.4-7.5 percent, as the country takes steps to move away from an investment-led growth model to one driven by domestic consumption. 
"We expect the trend will continue in 2014 as the policymakers are determined to push forward the reforms to maintain stable economic growth,” said Mr. Huiyong, "We maintain our 2014 GDP growth forecast of 7.5% as we still need to be on guard for the risks from debt problems in the economy.
China faces debt risk as the major lenders, especially the big four state-owned banks, in order to maintain the high country’s growth rate, have lent a record sum in the years after the financial crisis. Some of the investments seems dubious and may turn into bad debt.
DYI Comments:  Possible bad debts?  China ever since the death of Mao they moved into their version of capitalism.  This version has been the piling on an ever increasing amount of debt to fuel the Chinese economic miracle.  There are similarities of the Japanese debt blow off with a two lost decades of growth.  When will China's debt "blow up??"  I've been saying this will occur for the past 5 years along with many others with far greater academic credentials.  Our high flying stock and junk bond market is looking for a pin to pop this bubble.  Will China go into a tail spin of bad debt in 2014 causing an economic ripple effect (and drop world markets)?  I don't know.  The potential is there I'll be watching China closely.

DYI     

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