Friday, January 31, 2014

World risks deflationary shock as BRICS puncture credit bubbles

As matters stand, the next recession will push the Western economic system over the edge into deflation


DYI Comments:  It is very possible and probable that the U.S. will experience mild deflation in the range of -1% to -3% on the high side.  This could possibly be the pin that sends this overvalued and overbullish market southward to the likes of 45% to 60%.  However, those who are holding 30yr and 10yr Treasury Bonds will experience higher prices with yields falling below 3% and 2% respectfully.

 Graph of 30-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate

Graph of 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate

When those low yields are achieved it will mark the end of the "bond rally of a lifetime."  Deflation will most likely be with us til the end of this decade so don't expect long term bonds to be toxic as low rates will endure for at least another 4 to 6 years.  Only the capital gain possibility will be missing due to the obvious low rates.

Has the Great Wait ended?  Maybe and that maybe is getting stronger.

DYI

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